With midterm elections in the rearview mirror, the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast opens up the mail bag to answer lingering questions about the results. They also consider Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s motivations for registering as an independent and look at the latest polling on a potential presidential primary matchup between Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former President Donald Trump.
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God willing it shall be done 🙏
(1-((1000 polled)/(250*10^6 Americans 18+))) ^(500 polls/cycle)*(25 cycles/adult lifetime) = (1-(1/250^3))^(12500) chance to be never polled = ~95% chance to never be polled (participation is considered random)
I'd say with how old and dying off the Republican party voters are, and for how strong young 18-25 voters were in swing states, even including Ohio, Republicans are the ones who have to worry about their base fizzling out, not Democrats. Republicans are dying off, or being convicted of felonies and can't vote, and so may be the way of their party.
I really appreciated Nate's Sinema analysis. The first I've heard someone say she is not a good politician. She picks unnecessary fights alienating her from her base.
2 aisle seats
what a stupid headline
Would democrats risk fielding a candidate to steal votes from Sinema and allow a Republican to win with 35% of the vote.?
Is there a way that a host can be found who has the listening skills of someone older than 10?
I have no idea what polls hes seeing where Desantis is beating Trump, but for now the polls on RCP show, on average, Trump still ahead
Aisle/window
Dems could be less woke. More pro working class. Hit corporations more. They know certain culture war issues are losers for them. Executive order sick leave for railway workers. Should have passed the stock trade ban. Push ranked choice voting.
Otherwise dems need to win AK, IA & NC to make up for OH, MT, WV. Obviously the other WI seat is natural. They should just spend campaign money to help some people relocate there to push their vote share over the edge. 27k votes was the margin this cycle.
This show is like the cool dude, clever fellows people, sensible talkers, ,version of big bang theory for politics. 😊😊 Great stuff
I read this article about the path for Vermont to have one senator and California 12. We should get rid of every state having two senators.
I think Brown and Tester will win, but Manchin is a goner IMO. The Arizona situation screwed things up too.
You assume covid policy would negatively affect the democrats, but in many juristictions around the world the party with the stricter covid policy got a real boost the next election. People like being alive.
Also if you have any height at all how could you possibly not manspread in economy. Aisle window for sure
1:57 Ambivert, Nate.
"Manspreading in Economy"
sometimes ska bands just name themselves
Lol Nate as usual thinks a progressive will lose if they challenge sinema
Amazing video and thank you for breaking it down!! Despite the economic downturn, I'm so happy 😊I have been earning $ 60,000 returns from my $9,000 investment every 21days.
I'm with Galen. Aisle-aisle clearly the way to go
Dems can really only play defense these next 2 Senate cycles. Even in 2026, where they have the most republican seats up, they don’t have many options to attack. Only Texas, Maine, and maybe North Carolina but Florida is off the ballot for now.
They’ve kinda screwed themselves with not making many more inroads in other states. They’re on a ticking time bomb and it’s only a matter of time for them.