Since the second world war, the aircraft carrier has been a dominant symbol of naval might.
Now however, the Aircraft carrier is facing a growing family of new and evolving threats, ranging from anti ship ballistic missiles and hypersonics, to more capable submarines and unmanned systems. Some argue that these threats mean the Carrier may be ready to go the way of the battleship, becoming obsolete.
On the other hand, those same nations perfecting anti-carrier weapons are also investing extensively in new carriers of their own, suggesting they retain value.
In this video I look at carrier evolution, fleets, roles, threats – and the potential future of these extremely expensive platforms.
Patreon:
https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU
Caveats, Comments and Corrections:
All normal caveats and disclaimers apply
I would also like to note I occasionally use terms like Carrier Strike Group and Carrier Task Force interchangeably – while the former has far greater contemporary relevance. Force of habit from historical studies so apologise for any confusion caused
Readings and Sources:
List is abridged as I’m feeling unwell:
Congressional Research Service – China Primer: The People’s Liberation Army (PLA)
https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF11719
John Lehmen – Aircraft Carriers—Missions, Sur aft Carriers—Missions, Survivability ability, Size, Cost, Numbers – Naval War College Review
https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=8219&context=nwc-review
Gerald Ford in Eastern Med
https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS-RELEASES/Press-Release-View/Article/3552801/uss-gerald-r-ford-carrier-strike-group-arrives-in-the-eastern-mediterranean-sea/
CSIS – The first battle in the next war – Wargaming a Chinese Invasion…
https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/230109_Cancian_FirstBattle_NextWar.pdf?WdEUwJYWIySMPIr3ivhFolxC_gZQuSOQ
Lieutenant Commander G. B. Vroom (1925) – Strategic Value of the Aircraft Carrier
https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/1925/january/strategic-value-aircraft-carrier
RAND – Future Aircraft Carrier Options
https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2006.html
CRS – Navy Ford (CVN-78) Class Aircraft Carrier
Program: Background and Issues for Congress
Congressional Research Service – China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congress
https://sgp.fas.org/crs/row/RL33153.pdf
Included reporting on Rapid Dragon:
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/42469/our-best-look-yet-at-rapid-dragon-cargo-plane-launched-stealth-cruise-missiles-in-action
US Navy force levels – Naval history and heritage command
https://www.history.navy.mil/research/histories/ship-histories/us-ship-force-levels.html
2021 reporting on naval DEW
https://news.usni.org/2021/04/07/navy-installing-more-directed-energy-weapons-on-ddgs-conducting-land-based-laser-testing-this-year
TASS reporting on Tsirkon
https://tass.com/defense/941559
321 Day carrier deployment
https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/2516467/austin-praises-nimitz-carrier-strike-group-for-record-breaking-deployment/#:~:text=The%20Nimitz%20Carrier%20Strike%20Group%20had%20the%20longest%20deployment%20since,to%20be%20roughly%20six%20months.
F-76 datasheet
https://www.docs.citgo.com/msds_pi/13176.pdf
Collins vs USN in 2000
https://www.afr.com/companies/manufacturing/collins-class-sub-shines-in-hawaii-war-games-20000707-k9kirhttps://www.afr.com/companies/manufacturing/collins-class-sub-shines-in-hawaii-war-games-20000707-k9kir
carrier theme park as mentioned
https://www.tripadvisor.com.au/Attraction_Review-g311293-d1865169-Reviews-Tianjin_Binhai_Aircraft_Carrier_Theme_Park-Tianjin.html
USNI – Need for air superiority and ship killing weapons says Pacific air-forces commander
https://news.usni.org/2023/03/21/u-s-needs-air-superiority-ship-killing-weapons-to-defend-taiwan-pacific-air-forces-commander-says
CRS – China naval modernisation
https://sgp.fas.org/crs/row/RL33153.pdf
Reporting on PRC satellite based reconnaissance and tracking capabilities
https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2023/09/chinas-new-satellites-extend-its-militarys-reach-us-says/390223/
Older 2013 article on the ASBM kill chain
https://www.airandspaceforces.com/PDF/MagazineArchive/Documents/2013/December%202013/1213china.pdf
Report quoting Vice Adm. Jeffrey Trussler on PRC investment in AShM
https://news.usni.org/2021/01/27/u-s-admiral-china-can-keep-pouring-money-into-anti-ship-ballistic-missiles
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — The Future Of The Aircraft Carrier
00:01:35 — What Am I Talking About?
00:02:15 — History
00:08:17 — What Makes A Carrier?
00:13:55 — Global Carrier Forces
00:25:46 — Strategic Power Projection
00:29:44 — Economics
00:39:56 — Vulnerabilities
00:47:52 — Countermeasures & Challenges
00:55:58 — If Not The Carrier, What?
01:04:20 — What Next For The Carrier
01:06:20 — Conclusion
01:06:44 — Channel Update
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