Here is today’s UWU EXTRA giving you all the nuggets you need to add to your understanding of events.
Articles mentioned:
Where to now, Putin? Because there is no way you can win.
https://onlysky.media/jpearce/where-to-now-putin-because-there-is-no-way-you-can-win/
On Defending Billionaires
https://onlysky.media/jpearce/on-defending-billionaires/
The Armed Forces and Their Remit, Corporations, and Morality
https://onlysky.media/jpearce/the-armed-forces-and-their-remit-corporations-and-morality/
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Johnny Pearce books: https://amzn.to/3vv5ZSF
Survival of the Fittest books: https://amzn.to/3TXjp3z
Jonathan MS Pearce books: https://amzn.to/3IbX3sZ
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YouTube have disallowed me to split the videos into chapters due to my erroneous suspension. Grrr.
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Maps often used:
War Mapper: https://twitter.com/War_Mapper
JMSP: https://earth.google.com/earth/d/1TbWO-jdWJ0hJQ9QSvSsQlyh0owI0YTbi?usp=sharing
Blog/column: https://onlysky.media/jpearce/
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Breaking news Trump found guilty of sexual assault and battery! Ordered to pay 2 million dollars in punative compensation
Recall that when Putin took over Crimea he maintained plausible deniability via his “little green men” . Ukraines army couldn’t engage because the president placed then played by moscow had fled (perhaps by order ) the country and his post . The point is that it wasn’t clear to moscow how the west would react . Betting on the cravenly behaviour of the west has usually paid dividends to moscow .
When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014 the Ukrainian president had fled to Russia along with many officials of the government and the people were trying to establish a new government while fighting the invaders in the Donbas. It would take time before elections could be held and new government established. At that point the US and UK could not and would not provide weapons and military support but they did provide aid and diplomatic support to Ukraine. Ukraine would have to show they could resist and fight effectively against the Russians which they did. By 2015 nato was providing some military assistance and training for the Ukrainian army. It sure seems like the US and UK fulfilled all obligations under the Budapest agreement. It’s ridiculous to expect the US or any other nation would send armored divisions and air support to fight a war against Russia. In fact this continues in the current conflict. It’s ironic that Russia invades Ukraine to conquer new territory and destroys towns and cities while complaining that the US and UK betrayed Ukraine. Ukraine fights back and the Russians whine and cry about Nato causing and prolonging the war.
So, Ukraine got screwed in Budapest by a lack of English skills?
“Security guarantees” vs. “Security assurances”, that’s just a load of bull chit.
And why did Ukraine have to give all their nukes to Russia? Why didn’t Russia have to give all their nukes to Ukraine?
I suspect the UK will send this Jonathan:
Joint UK/French storm shadow .. has “Terrain Reference Navigation, ensuring that the route selected by the mission planners can be achieved over land and water, even in the most severe countermeasure environments” … russia has GPS jammers everywhere so you need this: https://youtu.be/Um0Se9CvHrE
The 'Demining vehicle' is a wonderful example for the one great achievement Communism has trained its common people to do: Improvisation ! In a state where nothing works without bribes or connections, people started to become creative and selfsustaining, teaching each other tricks and trying out things that would sometimes make our Western counterparts Macgyver or the A-Team turn pale.
The russian defenses are not manned by VDV or Wagner, they are manned by a few ten thousand mobiks.
This is my former area: I am a vet, former Russian intelligence official, worked for and with several 3-letter and 4-letter agencies from 1992 to 2003.
I think that a missed nuance or background fact regarding weapons, particularly chemical and nuclear, security situation in the early 90's. The USSR collapsed so fast that the US, UK feared that these WMD would fall into the wrong hands. In one swift movement in history, suddenly not only the military collapse, but all leadership too. Extremely intelligent scientists were instantly unemployed or underemployed, and many immoral ones put their services up to the highest bidders, Iran and N. Korea. And there was evidence that these things were happening. Since the former MOD was actually selling conventional weapons from the Warsaw pact countries to the black market and pocketing the proceeds. What is forgotten, obviously by Putin, is that Russia was concerned too. They wanted the weapons back too. It was a fast arrangement considering the circumstances. While the West obviously didn't support Ukraine in 2014, it has certainly stepped up to the plate now. Putin is playing revisionist and trying to rewind history 80 years backward. I can't believe that any historian on this 94 MOA seems to always gloss over this aspect of the reason the agreement went into place in the first place. Furthermore, the US paid for the transfer and/or destruction of these weapons (according to START STARTII CWC treaties) to Russia from the countries of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine since Russia had absolutely no money to do these things themselves.
Great info.
My thoughts on the Russian defences.
1) Do the Russians actually have enough troops to man them?
2) Many Russian units have been reduced to being foot mobile. Shifting positions, advancing to new positions and even falling back well be virtually impossible.
3) These defences look formidable but precision artillery, GMLRS and JDAM can be dropped straight on to any strongpoint. Artillery preparation could strip a fortification line of its defenders before the attackers arrive.
4) extensive pre-attack satellite recon can allow the Ukrainians to plot the path of least resistant. They do not have to push forward in a straight line. It could be more like a zig-zag.
5) Drones and Loitering munitions. Ukraines 'army of drones' could put hundreds of drones (spotters, FPV kamikaze, grenade droppers and actual military loitering munitions) over a single section of the front.
The Ukrainians will be attacking all layers of defence simultaneously. In fact I suspect that they will rip the Russian 'professional' troops and artillery lines apart first.
6) Are mobiks going to hold the line and not break when its raining grenades into their trenches?
7) Are Russian manoeuvre elements going to be able to move up to counter Ukraine breaches when they are being hammered by RPG carrying FPV's, Switchblade 600 and Excalibur.
8) I think the first thing to fail will be Russian command and control. Its going to be chaos.
Now you can see the quantities of weapons, PER KILOMETER, including relatively high tech weapons, as well as other weapons, plus ammunition, that are estimated (by NATO) as necessary for a war as large and as complex at the Russia Ukraine war actually is. There are other weapons that can be used, to reduce the need for that much manpower, such as drones, anti tank guns of various sorts, mines and so forth, but no matter how you look at it you need a lot of destructive force and a lot of people will get killed and seriously injured in any such engagement. It is invariably going to be a tough fight and a costly one in every instance. Russia can still commit many thousands of artillery pieces, mortars, tanks, rocketry platforms, plus aerial and naval support, and a nearly endless supply of smaller arms, plus as many as a million men if they pulled out all the stops and chose to commit everything that they can commit into the war. That does not imply that Russia would necessarily win, but they can sacrifice a lot more men and equipment to the war that they started.
Budapest was a con job
Nearly the only info on Bakhmut today, frontline stable except :
Soldiers of the 3rd Separate Assault Brigade near Bakhmut captured a group of Russian soldiers. They also freed 3km² of land south and southwest of Ivanivske. In the same operation, 64 russian soldiers were killed.
(Noelreports) Footages exists.
Clearly the push was not hard enough to limit nuclear weapons at that time…
The trench systems, and layers of Russian defense, are interesting but you have to remember that it is a matter of how many men at any given location and what types of weapons are available to them. That is a long, long, line, or rather it is a series of long lines. That being the case the Russians should not put much, if any, faith in that method of defense, and many Russians probably do not put much, if any, faith in it. Many may actually choose to run rather than fight when the real battle comes. You have to estimate what distance soldiers could serve to reinforce against a breakthrough point, and what happens if there are multiple breakthrough points drawing their attention. The lines do not last long in that scenario. Particularly if they are subjected to the right type of mortar and other fire rather than any vision of hand to hand combat clearing the trenches. Imagine trying to determine where the breakthrough is going to happen once mortar and artillery shells start peppering your trenches in any given locality. Down the line the same thing is happening. They do not know any more than you do. What next ? If it is done the right way there is a lot of dying in the trenches before any breakthrough actually occurs and the breakthrough occurs where it was not expected.
"Will to fight" is more important than any level of defensive infrastructure.
Overcoming the lack of air superiority can be done with a wide array of drones. The Ukrainians don't need 10's of thousands of drones, they need 100's of thousands.
Ukraine has never nukes,UK tvist as ussual
I am hoping to be surprised at how fast the UA forces will travel in the counterattack.
You have left out one very important consideration, what will retreating Russians forces impart upon waiting Russian forces. It will not be one of hope filled anticipation of what's coming towards them.. I expect panic in the Russian army regardless of how many holes they have dug.
Patriot missiles can shoot down Russian planes at long range.
Since its well and truly Wednesday in Australia I saved myself the balancing on one leg. However, talking about balance….you state Russia has about 350k soldiers in Ukraine vs let's say about 250k on the other side. If the numbers play about defending a front line was somewhat accurate Russia should have easily succeeded during their winter offensive.
Also, as mentioned in the recent strategic analysis of the Australian Institute of International Affairs they see the Russian Air Force as a major obstacle during an Ukrainian offensive. Currently Russia is hardly engaging their jets in front line activity due to the Ukrainian air defence but this is not a factor during a Ukrainian advance. The Russian air force is still a formidable force that will pose a massive threat to any momentum Ukraine may gain in their attack.
At 9:10, there are regions in the north of Italy where the german language is more prevalent, as is in people's names. Predominantly near the swiss border… So, he could be italian.
Morning all 👍 thank you Jono, you deserve another cuppa tea 🫖
Very good!
I heard Tom Hanks has full blown AIDS
8 million 🇺🇦 Ukrainians died fighting the Nazis .
Jonathan, I doubt Russian "Fell foul " of the BudAPEST MEMORANDUM. They aggressively broke the the memorandum.
great works yet again. thanks.
Let's be real: Even if there were unmistakeable guarantees in the Budapest Memorandum, America an Great Britain would not have militarily intervened in the Crimea or the Donbas.
been watching this excellent video on and off all night and well i must add a second comment to say love it, just love the work. thank you so much.