Here is a run through the frontlines for the Ukraine War.
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0:00 Start
0:10 General analysis
2:40 Kupiansk-Kreminna
6:40 Bakhmut
19:00 Adiivka/Marinka
21:50 South Donetsk/ Zap Oblast
30:15 Kherson
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source
TOCK!
It seems to have flown under the radar. Appropriate.
Great days ahead.
"RUs shelling UKR armored vehicle. Geoloc next to fortifications above Klishchiivka. Visual confirmation that the RUs are no longer on the high ground over Klishchiivka village. "
Source: TuiteroMartins (July 7)
NOTE: This source is an excellent OSINT researcher, specializing in sourcing and geolocating videos. The above video comes from a Ru social media channel! (Sorry, can't post the video on youtube.)
Just wondering, i added my previous post below as added information, could the Russians be aiming to stall Ukraine with everything they got till rasputitsa? Not using the main constructed defensive lines (cause that would be giving up land and thus allowing visible Ukrainian land gain results.) but the more forward positions in a attempt to prevent any/minimal ground gained by Ukraine? With the effort and aim of buying time till rasputitsa starts. This would be beneficial to Russian on two points, the Ukrainians have minimal results (land conquered back) that could lead to pressure from Ukrainians allies that don't like the idea that this conflict flows into another year (2024) and the second result would be the extra time they win during the rasputitsa to fortify their current defensive lines. The costs, manpower lost, is a known price the Russians would be willing to pay for this result.
"My two cents, which is worth nothing on these kind of military topics, is that making any meaningful comment on the pace of this offensive and its success or failure is hard when the operational level goals are unknown. 'Hope' and biases are hard to switch off when thinking about this and media expectations are hyped cause its mostly compared to results of previous 'NATO' coalition wars/conflicts with totally different starting points with regard to training, total units available and air superiority to name a few. Also, the Ukrainian landscape is totally different from, say, Iraq. . Also, I lack many of the parameters needed to form meaningful conclusions about the current state and success of this operation. Hopefully (but fearing it will take longer), it would lead to one hell of a read on a wiki article within a year or less. However, based on the information published about materials, created brigades, and known Ukrainian troop units currently fighting, it still seems like they are preserving their main force and waiting to deploy it at an unknown place and time where it has the greatest chance of achieving their goals.
The observable reserve units and known units in combat provide some insight into their strength and possible capabilities. The daily figures seem good to me, and I believe they appear highly attritional. Just think about it, Russia loses an army the size of a small nation in a week, continuously, without effectively replacing what they lost, and seemingly relying more and more on older equipment (although they are also learning, such as using FPV drones) and imported resources affected by sanctions, while Ukraine's striking capability and range increase (logically, they would need to conquer less ground to strike/target/shell the same targets) due to development and military aid. The recent downing of helicopters gives me a positive impression, as does their willingness to learn from 'mistakes,' the morale of the troops (based on Telegram videos), and the military innovations they deploy. The total units left in reserve (i.e., not in combat) are somewhat good parameters to follow, which give some indication of the current operation. The mines are a problem, as are any fortifications, as well as the Russian capability to bomb from jets and helicopters in the air. I don't have enough knowledge to determine how significant of a problem they are. It's hard to judge within the fog of war and the media silence, so I focus on the reserve troops. As long as they have troops remaining, they can initiate something within this theater. In the mean time, rely on bits, pieces and nuggets we can scrape together to add to our understanding of events and bite our teeth in.
And let's not forget that they still have a considerable amount of time in reserve as well… The time window until rasputitsa remains open until somewhere around the beginning of September or sometimes even late October depending on the weather."
"slow and attritional" like my ex wife 🙂
"Seems like all the high ground is now being indiscriminately bombed by the Ru Air Force. So they have very likely lost the whole area."
Place: Klishchiivka
Date: ~05.07.2023
🇺🇦 Unit: 24 SAB, 5 SABr
📂 Description: Jet artillery works for the Russians. Near the village of Klishchiivka.
"On the heights next to Klischiivka: This obstacle is now likely defeated, and Ukraine should be soon in the village itself.
AFU has made gains towards Berkhivka. They're also pushing in the immediate vicinity of western Bakhmut while simultaneously clearing the eastern side of Donets-Donbas canal."
Source: emilkastehelmii (4 hrs ago)
Thanks Jonathan! Slava Ukraini! Heroyam Slava!
Really appreciate all your work. Is there anything we can do to help counter the Russian trolls. You seem to do more to prevent issues than many videos yet you keep getting problems from the trolls.
Fires visible in Klishchiivka on Sentinel-2 IR filter, 7 July 2023
The damn being blowed could be the reason Russia having problems with drinking water.
ukraine should use vehicles packed with explosives (like russia trying to uses against ukrainians positions)on mine fealds also if ukrainians think the trench is mined or ukrainians should at least drone attack each trench to be sure explosives aren't planted as if they were it would blow up russians
All this pro Ukraine propaganda is all mouth and trousers isn't it? Ukraine was way better off with Victor Yanicovich as president Europe would be doing much better Germany would still be getting cheap energy from the Nord stream pipeline and America would have enough money to deal with it's tent cities and crumbling infrastructure.
Why don’t the UKA use 500 lb bombs against RA positions? What is the UKA aircraft doing to support front line troops? Is it just too well protected by SAMs? Seems a real disadvantage not to to have at least similar air support.
Any idea what can be done until more airframes can be delivered?
The good general news is, that the russians had to withdraw/reduce their forces, after only 1 month, from the chinese border, the south and baltics, to fill the(new?) gaps in the front line, leaving those border areas undefended. It brings russia back to more logic and realistic proportions, while those reinforcements are warmly welcomed with cluster munition. Still not any trace of the Ukranian mass attack seen on any video. Of course is the Ukraine slow, as the Nato is even slower(except big rather inactive blabla from the comfortable armchair). All to compare with the 9 months Wagner battle of a futile town, called Bahkmut.
Thanks for another informative report. Do you have any thoughts as to why Ukraine is so reluctant to support Infantry on the front line with IFVs and armor? I get that they want to preserve their armor for the big offensive push. However, I find it rather difficult to understand their reasoning for allowing infantry to incur heavy losses assaulting the same positions over and over again when a couple IFVs and/or tanks could easily repel enemy infantry. I’d bet the AFU Infantry would gladly accept support from the T-54/55s Russia is moving toward the front. They may be old and outdated, but they’ll serve well as Infantry support. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them dug in behind rising trench lines to repel AFU Infantry in the near future.
Is this hair style called “mutton chops” or is it something different
Another thing for everyone to consider when looking at these maps is: 200 meters is the distance that nearly any soldier can fire his rifle and hit his target. I know that the weapons may be listed for longer than that (the M16A1 was listed for 300 m with 50% accuracy for a trained fighter, the M16A2 was even longer), but the reality is something different. I was in the Army in the 1980's and I can tell you that the drill sergeants routinely told their recruits to not even shoot at the 300m target during qualifying tests!
50 meters with a powered assault rifle is easy, 100 meters is a near given provided that the shooter is ready, 150 meters is a hit provided that the shooter is at least familiar with the weapon, is not completely depleted (drunk, tired, starving, whatever), 200 meters is about as good as it gets for a soldier thinking, "Yeah, I can hit that." That is, of course, assuming that the soldier was already set up to shoot at the target. So, the lines that John is showing should be walked back AT LEAST 200 meters for each side for where anyone from that side may be hiding. They can shoot to those lines (or maybe they are at the line and can shoot maybe 200 meters from the line). In either case, there is a 200 meter wide line minimum for where an infantry soldier has a kill zone.
That does not mean that each side had ANYONE in those kill zones. They may not have anyone there, since both sides may have cleared an entire km on their side of their line with artillery. A tank can easily move 1 km in 2 minutes across rugged terrain (meaning no roads).
Um, it is not an either/or on operational pause and using artillery for attrition. I think it is likely a both/and.
Should call it NATO war. Ukrainian army is gone.
You'l be the death of me Jonathan.Just ordered that book you mentioned. Mrs will be hanging me at this rate LOL. keep it up and the humour.
Hi John – love your summaries, one question – I know you use the military statistics as 'indicative' (which is a good way to use them) – but be nice to get a list of kit taken out since the 'start' of the counter offensive, especially in the Southern Front (ie. not including Bakhmut area) – for example, since Day X – the Russians have lost Y amount of kit and Z amount square kilometers – would help to get a picture of Ukranian advances since the counter offensive kicked off (or the the recon/probing side of things, as we know the main thrust has not occurred yet) – anyway – just my two cents… keep up the great work
Fools rush in. Tactician test and adjust and don't bow to external pressure
In the face of suicidal resustance and now an uprising against the entire Government Moscow Russia attacks! #got_it
Ive read several Ruskie milbloggers that assert poor morale on the Ukrainian side. Funny weve seen no 'complaint' videos from them, yet weve seen dozens from the Russian side. Do these chaps tell the truth about anything??
The Russians seem to have been making minor but certain gains during the Ukrainian offensive. Its a bit discouraging 🙁