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Summary: No major changes, Ukrainian pressure on North Lugansk front and west of Lysychansk.
Key areas:
– Oskil river area: no changes.
– North Donbass area: no changes.
– Central Donbass (Donetsk West): no changes.
– Zaporizhya: no changes.
– Kherson bridgehead: no changes.
source
We want to see Yermak in jail now!
I can say that I get about 4-8 political phone calls per day and another 5-8 political mail pieces per day. I haven't seen anything about the Ukraine in any of them. It's not a big issue in the election around here.
Great content as always! One problem I found is your claim that Russia needs Ukraine to be a "major player" . The war seems to be weakening Russia instead.
I am sure Trump would remove Yermak in the first month of the war and then he will send much more help to Ukraine than Biden.
Majority of Americans support Ukraine and it will support it despite the inflation. Only extremist fools want Ukraine to submit to Russian demands.
I doubt the far left US push to force Ukraine to appease Russian aggression will grow – I expect they will lose some seat in the mid-terms and due to US popular opinion being pro-Ukraine the far left is likely to get more quiet next year.
You think elinsky cares more about Ukrainians of whom he's sent 100s of 1000s to slaughter or his offshore accounts with billions of U.S. dollars
But why does Russia need the entirety of Ukraine? NATO just needs to confirm that Ukraine will never be a part of NATO. Russia said before the war Ukraine joining NATO is their red line…
Please explain why Russia needs the whole of Ukraine
Rather ironic that after eight months of their invasion Russia is building defense lines.
Strange comments on a dirty bomb. Ukrainian incentive is to encourage the West to intervene, as they have said they would in the case of a nuclear weapon use.
There's no reason or "incentive" for Russia to use a dirty bombs. Even in WiU's scenario, Russia has both ballistic and tactical nukes of all kind. There's no reason for them to use a far less effective dirty bomb. They know if they use one it's a agloabl war. if things get so bad they'd have to use a nuke to cover their retreat, they'd just use a real one for full effect.
Thanks for your latest update Awsome thanks
I think that the WIU frontline commentary is beginning to suffer from a lack of updated positions of forces as well as inaccurate lines of contact. Even though movements are relatively minor at the moment, the problem with this is that one increasingly does not get a true impression of where either side is focusing their efforts and with how much. That way the narrative of developments are increasingly becoming fragmented and meaningless. This channel used to be good on frontline developments, hopefully we can soon see a return to that happy status. Maybe the time for the considerable work required could be taken from the general and strategic speculations that would benefit from more focus and brevity in any case.
Just to summarise what is now self evident and thus save some time: The US progressives debacle is dead and gone – in fact it never mattered. In the intirety of the US and the EU there is no political party of note to oppose the defeat of Russia in Ukraine. The new UK prime minister, like the ones who came before him, are resolutely in support of Ukraine – and for the same reasons. China is not going to invade Taiwan in a timeframe that will matter to this war – instead they will be busy maintaining internal stability by increasing GDP growth by 2 pct to about 6 pct. Russia is alone and rapidly weakening on all parameters – militarily, politically, economically and increasingly also as regards support for its leadership. NATO is expanded and now envelop Russia on all its European fronts with the implications that would have in case Russia should ever be tempted to try its luck with a new war of aggression involving NATO. All NATO countries are now for the first time ever fully committed to meet the 2 pct defense spending – a 40 pct increase. The EU is no longer strategically dependent on Russian energy and never will be again. Mr. Yermak is innocent until proven guilty which in any case is a matter for Ukraine to deal with after they have defeated Russia. The dirty bomb and the destruction of the dam may or may not happen. In any case those events will be put squarely on Russia's shoulders and will serve to hasten their defeat. There is only one upside for Russia that Putin's war has achieved – the country is fully stocked with new Ukrainian washing machines, but it remains to be seen if that will keep him in power…
Thanks. What would be a left and right that is not artificial? Especially when it has repercussions in the physical world?
what a gloomy channel ?
Corruption in Ukraine is well hidden on Hunter Biden's laptop.
Corruption will be reduced as Ukraine joins the EU however all organisations are corrupt to some extent including the EU. The best protection against corruption is investigative journalists, free to write as they please.
He is being "investigated" or is under investigation.
Don't you confuse war economy measures with "Marxist economic policies"? With widespread shortages due to large scale dislocations, the price system is not capable to allocate resources efficiently.
It says it all when Russia expected support from a far-right Italian political party – and didn't receive it 🙂
Dislike (again) the biased / unproven / hear say judgement value about the politicians. Show evidence and just then accuse someone to be corrupt or work for Russia. Do you really beleive there are still leaders in UA working for RU? And that these are all corrupt? Names, numbers and evidence then. Good to hear about the partizans involvement. I was wondering what they are doing, not much news on YT. Fully agree on your view about the dirty bomb. No use for UA, but usefull for RU as is blowing up the dam. They are ruthless enough to do this.
READ YOUR SUBSCRIBERS' COMMENTS FFS. UPDATE YOUR UKRAINIAN UNIT POSITIONS – i.e. the 93rd Brigade has been at Bakhmut since two weeks before Izyum fell. Jeezus H Christ – frustration much from Australia. PS – been following you from the start of your channel, so friendly criticism, mate 😉
The "Dirty Bomb" issue is very intriguing. Sorry, but the attempted case against Russia comes up as malevolent nonsense!
It starts with the highly improbable case against Russia for a long list of reasons. Just the desperate evacuation of Kherson City says that the Russians didn't have time to prepare for such an attack.
It SHOULD be academic that if Russia had any plans to use a Dirty Bomb, they wouldn't mention anything about it, until after the fact – when they could control the narrative before the "West" could grasp the scenario.
Russia WARNED the entire world, obviously hoping for "Western" intervention against a terrible 'nuclear gateway" getting incrementally opened. Certainly they ratted Zelensky out. He's clearly ruthless enough to do such.
However, instead of ANY of the warned "Western" leaders taking the time to investigate the matter, they immediately denied the allegations AND tried to reverse the role of Russia – on que and unanimously so.
That's uniquely a seriously bad sign.
Funny, so many parallels to the phony "WMD" case against Saddam Hussein! What are the odds that the "West" is poised to do another Kosovo styled 'rescue' of the undeniably corrupt Ukrainian leadership?
Accusing Russia of planning a false-flag Dirty Bomb attack at least theoretically makes for an adequate 'trigger' for another phony "Western" intervention – save for Putin being totally on top of the possibility. If attempted, it's guaranteed NOT to work. That's not to say that it won't be attempted, however.
Conversely, Zelensky is absolutely ruthless enough to go to such an extreme – and to try to blame Russia for the event, should it come to pass.
It's academic that if Putin thought that Zelensky would do such a thing, Putin would order a preemptive strike on Zelensky's head – thus the recent front-loaded disclaimer concerning Zelensky's potential demise – mentioned for the first time. While reasonably logical, the psychopathic arrogance of his directive to "… the world" to avenge his demise is phenomenally off-scale in history! But, he's been off-scale on most of his nonsense.
If the dirty bomb account is factual, there's the obvious mystery as to the exact target. Add that there's no viable motive for Russia to resort to a Dirty Bomb. They have more than enough 'conventional' weapons to achieve whatever goal they might come up with – and the Russians don't need a special "excuse," to do such.
If the assumed perpetrators wanted to scam a low-yield Russian nuclear weapon against the dam, it wouldn't be a problem to frame Russia, using old spent fuel rods, whose material would trace to Russia as the source.
As it stands, if a Dirty Bomb was used on the annexed territory, Zelensky would be attacking 'Russia," not Ukrainian turf – he'd do that.
The particular "rub" in the current picture being the assembly of "Western" troops, poised to jump into Ukraine – with the "Kosovo Model" available in the background. Such might not involve NATO troops, in the beginning.
The 101st Airborne Division troops next to the Ukrainian border is seriously not a good sign.
However, it's certain that Putin is on top of the 'situation,' with an intelligent plan to counter any such effort – which might be seriously bloody.
Russia's announcement of the potential dirty bomb is obviously a good first move. If it happens, Russia can't be rationally blamed for it, versus being quick to warn the world about it, instead.
In the periphery, it's certain that if there is any factual merit to the accusation against Ukraine, Russian Intelligence is keenly aware of the pertinent information/details. Thus there's a reasonable chance that Russia can interdict the effort by some effective means – which might be 'extreme,' if necessary.
Add the associated "rub" that even the UN is giving Zelensky an incredible license – thus far – to do or say anything that he desires.
The UN wouldn't do or say anything just concerning Zelensky's attacks on the ZNPP powerplant; with the obvious and undeniable risk of hitting the spent fuel rods storage building – with guaranteed nightmarish consequences – scope unknown.
BUT, in contrast, the UN is ready to send troops into Hati, because they don't like one of the leadership contenders! Let's see, would such a force be made up of American troops, wearing blue helmets?
So, whatever the case may be, what's next? The suspense seems to be multiplying. The US midterm elections are around the corner, and the clock is ticking. AND, the temperatures in Europe are dropping.
I'm doubtful that Russia can really 'destroy' Ukraine as you are saying. The electricity is going to come back, and Russia just does not have enough missiles to keep doing this. Plus Ukraine has more air defence now. I don't believe Russian can just degrade Ukraine – other than just continuing to fight the war. But it's extremely expensive for Russia to fight this war to have the marginal effect of Ukraine being degraded. Even if Ukraine is degraded, there is no 'barrier'. The US is as close as ever.
400,000 dead or missing Ukrainian soldiers since February according to OSINT. 30,000 foreign volunteers kia.
In English you say "nuclear bomb" not "atomic bomb".
I am grateful for your update however I am confused. What do you want from the Ukrainian government, or any Ukrainian government? As you often refer to the corruption inherent there. Many thanks for your clarification.
Ah, the Alga battallion has appeared in the Cherson. Fighting in Mylove, or thereabouts. Tartars. There are supposed to be one more battalion of them ("Timer") but only one has appeared in media so far. These are volunteers from Tartarstan, and by Russian standards strong battallions, some 500 men. Well covered by at least Caucasus medias since their recruitment and training june-july, departure late july and then they "disappear" until surfacing in september when they had already arrived in "The Zone" (i.e. somewhere in Ukraine) and received a full complement of S-STS Akhmat vehicles (actually "Ahmad" after Ahmad Kadyrov…). So now we again have tartars in the Cherson 🙂 But that is not my point – it is time to get nerdy.
Tha Alga caught interest because of the vehicles. They are brand new – first batch produced in may, by Remdizel. Looking the part, they are armoured cars or better classified as MRAPS, 6×6 wheeled. They are announced as a response to After Action Reports from the war. This war, in Ukraine.
As we have seen, Russia has already deployed MRAPs, the STS Tigr (not to be confused with other Tigr, "STS" means special transport vehicle (Spetsialnoye transportnoye sredstvo) and will normally signify armour to military standard). Russia does not use this name they say Tigr-6A or more formally GAZ-233014. This was supposedly the response to AAR from Chechnya, and some extent Georgia – primarily the VDV demands for a new MRAP vehicle. We saw a lot of them in March, the VDV are not very happy with them and this is primarily because they are not what the VDV asked for. Which is another story, let's return to this latest toy.
According to the Remdizel design team (this taken from TACC) the S-STS Akhmat was developed in 25 days. The order came March 27th and 25 days later they had a design. They used the Ural-63095 chassis, using the Ural-63099 V-shape and welded armour on it – simply put. And indeed it looks a lot like a Ural Typhoon. The armour protection is one of the questions left unanswered. Even people unfamiliar with the design process of military land vehicles will become deeply suspicious about 25 days, and total lack of trials – but you have to admire their procurement process. And they are using only existing parts so it may well work.
Thing is – why? Russia already has a lot of MRAP, at least 300. These are called Taifun or Typhoons and are of Ural or KamAZ production. In an effort to mimic the USA, and intended for use in the Middle East, these are new modern vehicles from 2015 and on. Some of them are designed as troop transport. They are (well, were at least) intended to be the motor component of their new light brigades, trying to imitate US IBCT – two of them were supposed to be created in 2017 already but we're still waiting. 56th VDV brigade (of 7th VDV division, now in Cherson) was the trial unit testing those vehicles out – and we noted that immeditaley after trials they turned them in and asked for their traditional BMD instead.
Yet they feel the need to design and produce a new one? Granted – based on feedback from the army of recent experience, unlike the existing models. But let's look at the result.
The Remdizel teams states in an interview (again TACC) that they simply used the army standard 5 of the GOST R 50963-96. To the NATO observer this means Ballistic level 3 of the STANAG (or NATO AEP-55 it's the same). It can stop bullets of 7,62mm even armour piercing, fired from machineguns and sniper rifles. It has a good chance of surviving artillery (155mm) if impact is at least 60 meters away (we will return to that). This is the very same standard, same type of armour that the Tigr-6A has and one of the issues the VDV has with it – it is not enough. Russia already has MRAPs with level 4 – like the Typhoon K-63969 – able to withstand heavy machineguns (14,7mm) and survive 25 meters from impact (155mm).
Mine protection of the Akhmat is stated as level 2b (6 kg TNT detonating under the center of the vehicle). Again – this is exactly the same as the Tig-6A, again an issue raised by the VDV as inadequate and again Russia already have MRAPs with level 3b (8kg TNT, detonating under centre of vehicle).
To have something to hold on to as comparison present generation NATO MRAPs is generally standard STANAG 4, with 4a mine protection – the very latest (think JLTV from 2015) and those still in development we don't know since it is classified.
Like the Tigr-6A, the Akhmat comes unarmed but is adapted to be able to use the weapon modules in Russian use. You know the turret-ish things closely imitating US Humvee modules but with AGS, Kord, PKM, Gibka-S, Kornet etc – you saw them on the Tigr-6As in March.
So what is the point in designing a new vehicle with specs same or lower than those already available in other designs? Even using components from those superior designs?
Nobody knows. The official Russian statements are few but speak of armour enough to stop 30mm AP fire and other nonsense. So – useless as source. Regardless, they now have this new design in serial production and I for one am very curious about how they perform – being so specifically designed for this very war. The Tartars are now also the very first ever Russian "light battallion" ever, of the concept they never realized. Should be interesting to evaluate performance in that aspect too.
The MRAP as a concept, as imitated from the West, is designed to provide protection against mines and cluster munition, transporting troops or filling other roles.
Mines come in a lot of shapes including IED of course, the MRAP is expected to handle everything except dedicated antitank mines – such as the RAAMS (delivered by cluster munitions) or standard antitank mines – they will kill any MRAP. The problem here being that ballistic protection level 2b of the Akhmat will not stop ADAM nor indeed several other modern antipersonell mines, even.
Cluster munitions also come in all kinds of variants and the MRAP is not expected to handle dedicated antitank cluster munitions such as CBU-97, but really any other type. Problem here being twofold. The idea with cluster munitions is to decrease impact distance to target. A 155mm shell is much more powerful but hits one spot, obliterating anything on impact but the power of the explosion and shrapnels weakens exponentially with distance, so that even a guy with a vest standing up has a fair chance of surviving if 100 meters away. Problem 1 is UAF accuracy rate with a flat Delta curve for distance impact to target. Meaning they hit very close with 155mm shells, requiring at least level 4 and really level 5 as effective protection. Problem two being that even when using cluster munitions, ballistic level 3 is not adequate against the shrapnel of modern munitions. Level 4 is required to keep the men safe (unless dedicated AT). But then again, level 3 will probably save them from all other types, you have incendiary, and specialised runway destroyers, and anti-electrical munitions and the much in use in UAF leaflet spreading cluster munitions.
Another intriguing thing is repeated statements that it is designed with economy in mind. We know it is designed to be kept light to maintain mobility but economy? I'm not sure what that means but Russia rarely designs vehicles with fuel conservation in mind so it has to be a reference to production cost.
Thank you, Professor. He works each and every day publishing a report for us. You can agree with his overview or disagree if you wish, but he rarely misses a day and he knows his stuff. Not only do I look forward to his reports, but his audience or classroom, if you will, is equally informative. I can spend several hours reading and contemplating the comments made by some very intelligent people. This helps me understand the big picture of a country that I did not know much about a year ago. Thank you!
Good episode, especially the logic of the dirty a-bomb as a pre-text for RU retreating. "In order to not escalate this war to nuclear like UA did, we will go back as a gesture of good will".
Mmm… I don't see how a dirty bomb would make the terrain impassable.
It might make a small area unfit for permanent settlement until proper decontamination could be carried out, but the radius of such a bomb is tiny compared with an actual A-bomb, maybe a few hundred meters if using a huge military-grade explosive charge (like a FAB-1000 or something).
It could be used to cripple a city, but not to turn a whole region into a wasteland.
Besides, driving through a contaminated landscape is neither dangerous nor difficult enough to prevent troop movement.
The new UK Prime Minister will reimpose the ban on fracking…
Again with the "Ukrainian Government has no incentive to use a dirty nuclear bomb". The incentive is obvious, same as the jihadist "moderate rebels" in Douma, Syria: a false flag to compel allies or close to that to intervene in some significant way. In Syria they managed to get Trump to do some strikes, and that was with only a fake attack where there were no real victims. If the false flag attack were to be real, one would expect the intervention to be much stronger. Especially when admitting the Russian regime wouldn't benefit, except in a specific scenario and in an unlikely way. Exactly as the case was in Syria, with the Syrian regime not benefitting at all from such an attack and therefore having to be explained with the absurd argument of "Assad is crazy". Ignoring this possibility/argument, and foregoing a refutation of it reduces the credibility of this analyst. Same was done in this channel with the Ukrainian shelling of the ZPP and the alleged landing attempts by Ukraine. At least recognize there is a at least superficially coherent and possibly credible argument on the other side of the benefit for the Ukrainian side, namely compelling other countries to send a "peacekeeping" mission to create a neutral "DMZ", or something along those lines that would be at the least uncomfortable for the Russians and in practice make it impossible for the Russians to annex the ZPP and surrounding areas. These reasonings are not hard to come up with, and blatantly ignoring them without at least even mentioning them, and ideally refuting them, reduces the credibility of this channel's analysis, makes it seem it's at least partially lying by omission on some things, especially the worst accusations against the corrupt Ukrainian regime.
There's a lot of credible and good analysis in this channel, why unnecessarily ruin it in this way?
the letter even though is about Ukraine… the 6 months it took to deliver it is a political stunt to affect the upcoming election. you can easily look up those who signed the letter have changed their position and do not support appeasement. as the success of the Ukrainian military has changed many positions to favorable.
the political stunt is to smear a political party… as American voters a couple times…because of emotions blamed a politician who had nothing to do with the minor issue upsetting everyone.
further, a little background about American progressives… they're called bleeding heart liberals… they don't want people killing people. what most American progressives don't understand… giving in will start a cycle of wars and conflict with psychopaths like putin taking from whomever they think is weak. most are dimly figuring this fact out. to me wars are insanity but are required to defend against invasion.
I think that your information regarding the Kerch Bridge is out of date. I saw a photo of the bridge repair work, and for the other way, there was light traffic both ways including a truck headed towards Russia. Obviously, one lane each way isn't a lot of capacity, but the traffic wasn't backed up. Maybe they are throttling traffic allowed on the bridge, but it was quite spread out.
thanks for video!
I wish your complaints about corruption and red tape in Ukraine had some specifics. if you could point to one policy…
30 Bushmaster MRAPs to Ukraine
Australia to supply additional 30 Bushmaster MRAPs to Ukraine, bringing the total number of Bushmasters to 90.
Two new NASAMS anti-aircraft systems already in Ukraine.
Each system consists of 12 launchers and 8 radars and were provided by the US.
That brings the total number of NASAMS in Ukraine to 3, as Norway had previously sent 1 system.
Smart Shooter drones to Ukraine
Israeli media reported on the transfer of the Smart Shooter system installed on UAVs to Ukraine to combat Iranian drones.
Consisting of an assault rifle or grenade launcher mounted on a drone, it uses artificial intelligence technology to locate, track and target enemy drones
Here's a thought on Kherson. I'm reminded about the Japanese withdrawal out Guadalcanal under similar circumstances: a sizeable force worn down over months of heavy fighting fighting with poor supply.
The Japanese first move to begin the withdrawal was the deployment of fresh troops at Guadalcanal.
The worn down and demoralised troops would struggle to put up a successful rearguard action as their numbers thinned out and the deployment of fresh troops that put up stiff resistance scared the Americans into thinking the Japanese were reinforcing for a new attack.
This made the Americans cautious and allowed the Japanese to successfully pull out of Guadalcanal with minimal losses.
The Russians may be attempting something similar but there isn't enough information to say at the moment
Welcome to Ukraine!
Newly-arrived Chechen soldiers post on TikTok, revealing their position.
HIMARS greets them. 💥💥💥
40+dead, 100+ injured.
Kairy, Kherson Region, on the east bank of the Dnieper River 35 km NE of Nova Kakhovka.
I don’t think a “war economy” is a “marxist policies government”. They’re still capitalist with lots of privatisation.
Biden's handlers used to try to refer to "Putin's price hike" to blame rising prices on the war. They didn't use that slogan for very long so I thought it proved a flop. Prices were rising for a year before the war started, after all.
When the republicans take office in January what is Ukraine going to do when the money dries up?
Soon as the ground freezes, Ukraine will be in deep doo-doo.
How to help Ukraine after this war? Or even right now? Simple… Ukraine agrees that its allies… the EU, US… etc. put Ukraine under administration just like Japan or Germany after ww2…. That way Ukrainian politicians are not making the rules… someone else is, and it'd be pretty much impossible to embezzle funds that are not going into a Ukrainian account. My guess is the population of Ukraine would agree to this… it would be hard, it would take 5 to 10 years…. but given Ukraine's actual resources and how important Ukraine's agriculture is to the world… and how clearly inventive the Ukrainian people are… well Ukraine could become as powerful and wealthy as Germany in the future. If theres one thing that the EU does need its a counterbalance to the Franco-German power structure…
One positive thing about winter and the existing electrical substation transformers… The transformers can be run at higher amperages in the winter than in the summer. Transformers are cooled by oil, and cooling fans. In the summer, transformers have to work harder to shed their heat. It's not a great increase, winter over summer, maybe 10%… and of course, demand is going to be greater in the winter to run equipment associated with heating, but at the moment any good news is appreciated.
Where the war in Ukraine is concerned, IMO, both Republicans and Democrats seem to be avoiding mentioning the war. It is an elephant in the room that no one will acknowledge. Predictions are that the Democrats are set to loose enough seats to loose control of the House of Representatives, the Senate, and some governorships. I think that to avoid bringing up a topic that will scare some voters the Republicans are attacking the Democrats on the economy, government spending, and social issues. Likewise, Democrats are attacking the Republicans based on abortion, trying to defend on the economy, and portraying Republicans as destructive radicals.
The expression by either side of what they would do to change the trajectory America is on seems to be deafening by its silence. There may be individual candidates that have clearly defined their thoughts on the war, but silence seems to be the trend.
19:31 Belarus is more independent than you think especially prior to the colour revolution
Russia brings pickles to war. Late