In-depth meteorological discussion of the infamous May 3, 1999, Oklahoma tornado outbreak, including the Bridge Creek/Moore F5 that produced the highest wind gusts ever recorded in a tornado. In this video, we’ll discuss several challenges that forecasters faced in the days and hours leading up to the event and what made this event such a prolific tornado producer.
Thumbnail image of unknown origin via Julianna Keeping (newsok.com).
Edwards et al. (2002) article on the event: https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/17/3/1520-0434_2002_017_0544_spcfir_2_0_co_2.xml
Thompson and Edwards (2000) article on the event: https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/15/6/1520-0434_2000_015_0682_aooeca_2_0_co_2.xml
NWS Norman summary of the event: https://www.weather.gov/oun/events-19990503
Chapters:
0:00 Introduction
2:41 Meteorological discussion, forecast challenges
36:08 Summary
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Oh man, I was waiting for you to do this one. Perfect timing!
Great! Gonna listen to this on the road trip
Another great video Trey! Always love your pace and analysis in these videos
Lived through this bad boy. Was in Yukon when it all went down. Watched on tv until we had to take shelter from a tornado to our west near Union City. Always learn something new from these vids! Thanks again.
Hell yeahhhh my fave tornado of all time. Can never get enough info on this one.
Thank you for this! I am currently watching the coverage of Gary England's it's very scary even today over 20yrs later. I can't imagine watching it live!
Also by the way could you do a case study of the DFW Texas area outbreak of April 2 2012? From what I remember it wasn't really supposed to be bad. Maybe a tornado or 2 but it was pretty major. I was nearly hit by the kennedale-Arlington tornado which is why I have storm anxiety now
Was the convective roll in SW OK stationary?
Often seems like thunderstorms like to form in that area off the higher terrain.
I think it's an important reasons why Central Oklahoma often gets hammered with SigTor Supercells.
my guy has been pushing out videos, love to watch them!!
Thank you for this! I'd argue that 5/3/99 is probably on the top 5 for most infamous tornado outbreaks of all time. You should do the 1990 Plainfield tornado, that is a very interesting storm because forecasting it was a challenge because it wasn't in an environment that you'd expect violent tornadoes from, but rather it was in a "ring of fire" pattern that derechos often form in. Also its the only F5/EF5 tornado in August and the only F5/EF5 in the Chicago area. Also, that storm had no warning, so you could talk about how far the warning process has come
I just found your channel and I am loving these videos. Thank you!
May 3rd, 1999
An EF5 tornado rips through Moore, Oklahoma with record-breaking 300MPH winds
Seeing this vid get released is my Christmas
It's quite possible that the Mulhall tornado was every bit as strong as the Bridge Creek tornado… much, much wider too. It must've been an absolute monster. Unfortunately aren't many pictures of it at it's peak.
As always.. fantastic breakdown brotha!!!!
I noticed you didn't include a section on analogs for this storm setup. Is that because it was a particularly unusual setup for tornado formation?
When you say surface winds are backing does that mean that the winds are out of the southeast?
Thank you for these case studies.
I abosolutely love your videos. Honestly one of the best weather case study channels ever. I love your voice and the way you speak and the way you describe each element of how it was produced.
The scientist in me is loving the references to the articles!! Top notch!!
Is there a chance you could look at the plains 4/14/12 outbreak? I would love to understand what happened that day as I lived through it
Another great video!
Was thinking some interesting case studies could be big "bust" events. 5/20/19 and 3/28/20 immediately come to mind but there are many others.
It would be fascinating to look at an event where everything was there but one thing.
It is so cool to see proper academic analysis and explanation of events like this. It helps put pieces together I didn't quite understand.
Great video. Would you be able to do the 1985 tornado outbreak that happened in Ohio and Pennsylvania? That was a very rare occurrence for this area. Appreciate it. Thanks!
Great videos. Can you do the Jarrel Texas May 1997 F5?
Finally got to watch and was definitely worth the wait. Another incredible analysis video Trey, I love these and love learning from them!
I would love if you covered the "Hurricane" Elvis derecho in Memphis in 2003. It was the most costly convective event in the city's history and there were some measurements of winds over 100 MPH in some areas. It's also a very atypical derecho as it did not have an obvious large bow on radar and the path was very shifty with Memphis being at the apex of the SSE to E movement shift of the storm which may have introduced vorticity. Anyways, just a suggestion! Love your breakdowns.
The text of the broadcast from the first ever Tornado Emergency (which was issued for the Bridge Creek- Moore tornado) was extremely sobering. This is the text:
"Tornado Emergency in South Oklahoma City metro area! At 6:57 PM Central Daylight Time, a large tornado was moving along Interstate 44 west of Newcastle. On its present path; this large damaging tornado will enter southwest sections of the Oklahoma City metro area between 7:15 PM and 7:30 PM. Persons in Moore and south Oklahoma City should take immediate tornado precautions! This is an extremely dangerous and life threatening situation! If you are in the path of this large and destructive tornado, take cover immediately! Doppler radar indicated this storm may contain destructive hail up to the size of baseballs, or larger." While the text of the Tornado Emergency that was broadcast during the tornado that hit Moore, Oklahoma on May 20th, 2013 wasn't as alarming, it still did its job of telling people who were in the path of the storm to get their asses to safety or die. This is the text:
"National Weather Service in Norman has issued a Tornado Warning for northwestern McClain County in central Oklahoma, southern Oklahoma County in central Oklahoma, and northern Cleveland County in central Oklahoma until 3:45 PM Central Daylight Time. At 2:59 PM Central Daylight Time; National Weather Service meteorologists and storm spotters were tracking a large and extremely dangerous tornado near Newcastle. Doppler radar showed this tornado moving northeast at twenty miles per hour. This is a Tornado Emergency for Moore and south Oklahoma City! In addition to a tornado; large, destructive hail up to tennis ball size is expected with this storm. Locations impacted include Midwest City, Moore, Newcastle, Stanley Draper Lake, Tinker Air Force Base, and Valley Brook. This is an extremely dangerous and life threatening situation! If you cannot get underground; go to a storm shelter or an interior room of a sturdy building now! Take cover now in a storm shelter or an interior room of a sturdy building now! Stay away from doors and windows!"
Again such a well done case study. Keep them coming. Much better than any documentary to explain what happened. Outstanding. Cant wait for the next one!
These case studies are great Trey, lots of useful information for future forecasters to learn. I wanted to ask if you've considered doing a case study on the 8/26/07 Northern Plains Tornado Outbreak. Discrete supercells developed despite a strong cap and the merging of cyclonically rotating supercells appeared to have led to the EF4 that struck Northwood, ND.
It seemed like a difficult-to-forecast outbreak, and thought you might find it interesting to look at the dynamics that went into making it a significant event!
Here's an analysis paper from the NWS on the event: https://www.weather.gov/media/crh/publications/TA/TA_1302.pdf