Over the last year, the Ukraine war has played out both on the battlefields of Ukraine, and on global markets where energy warfare, sanctions, and industrial mobilisation efforts went head to head. Russia wanted to freeze Europe, while the Western allies sought to strangle the Russian economy with sanctions.
A year on – I want to look at how successful these competing economic campaigns have been. Setting the stage to look at battlefield developments, attrition, and force regeneration in the near future.
Patreon:
https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU
Caveats/Corrections:
As always – unless very explicitly otherwise stated everything said should be considered to have a ‘reportedly’ or ‘seemingly’ tag attached.
I also note that my comments on survey, financial, and other data are intended to be illustrative, not exhaustive.
Sources/Reading:
LNG around the world:
https://www.dw.com/en/lng-european-thirst-for-natural-gas-puts-bangladesh-and-pakistan-in-the-dark/a-63401354
IPSOS polling:
https://www.ipsos.com/en/war-in-ukraine-january-2023
Europe gas prices hit low:
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/02/17/energy/europe-gas-price-18-month-low/index.html
EU Gas storage:
https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/infographics/gas-storage-capacity/
LNG Terminal 3 in Germany
https://www.dw.com/en/third-floating-lng-terminal-arrives-in-northern-germany/a-64462246
Seymour Hersh’s article on Nord Stream
https://seymourhersh.substack.com/p/how-america-took-out-the-nord-stream
Hersh on Russia Today:
https://www.rt.com/russia/571690-hersh-ukraine-nato-corruption/
Russia switching oil tax calculations:
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-may-switch-brent-based-oil-taxes-kommersant-2023-02-03/
Russia planning one-off contributions:
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/russia-eyeing-one-off-budget-contribution-around-3-bln-business-three-sources-2023-02-08/
Russia plan for foreign owned assets
https://www.reuters.com/business/russia-outlines-plan-unfriendly-investors-sell-up-half-price-2022-12-30/
Sonnenfeld on Russian economy estimates:
https://fortune.com/2023/03/06/imf-naively-parroted-putin-fake-statisticsand-botched-economic-forecast-russia-ukraine/
Russia produced economic figures :
https://www.cbr.ru/Collection/Collection/File/43430/forecast_221028.pdf
https://www.cbr.ru/statistics/ddkp/mo_br/
Carnegie Endowment on Deficit:
https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/89009
Jamestown Foundation on RU DIB
https://jamestown.org/program/russias-defense-industry-growing-increasingly-turbulent/
Borisov on labour shortages:
https://vpk.name/news/613140_borisov_deficit_kadrov_na_predpriyatiyah_opk_v_rf_budet_sostavlyat_okolo_400_tys_chelovek.html
Shadow fleet:
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/01/business/russia-oil-shadow-fleet/index.html
Oil Sanctions:
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/16/sanctions-on-russian-oil-are-having-the-intended-effect-iea-says.html
https://www.barrons.com/articles/vietnam-markets-economy-e5c19acf
Defence Production:
https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2023/03/08/eu-defence-ministers-discuss-joint-procurement-for-ammunition-to-replenish-depleted-stocks
https://www.businessinsider.com/german-arms-giant-build-a-tank-factory-in-ukraine-rheinmetall-2023-3
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:02:18 — WHAT AM I TALKING ABOUT?
00:02:49 — FREEZING EUROPE
00:03:48 — The Euro Response
00:05:59 — Climate & Culmination
00:07:20 — Cost To The Eurozone
00:09:46 — EU: Are Citizens’ Lives Heading The Right Direction? (graph)
00:11:21 — The External Costs
00:13:17 — Evaluation
00:14:02 — Side Note On Nord Stream Claims
00:17:45 — BREAKING UP UA’s SUPPORT
00:20:37 — Support levels
00:21:43 — US Public Opinion
00:24:10 — More Global Opinion?
00:27:23 — Evaluation
00:27:51 — THE ECONOMIC WAR (ON RUSSIA)
00:29:02 — Energy Markets & Exports
00:34:10 — Follow On Sanctions And Induced Competition
00:35:43 — The Dispute Over Stats
00:37:23 — The Picture From Russia
00:39:01 — The Russian Budget
00:43:26 — Evaluation
00:44:26 — THE STRATEGIC BOMBING CAMPAIGN
00:46:57 — Economic Impacts
00:48:46 — The GBAD Problem
00:50:57 — THE PRODUCTION RACE – UKRAINE
00:53:25 — Strategic Imperative
00:56:28 — THRE PRODUCTION RACE – THE WEST
01:03:23 — THE PRODUCTION RACE – RUSSIA
01:06:25 — Defence Spending Is Surprisingly Low
01:08:17 — The Impact Of Sanctions & Inflation
01:14:52 — CONCLUSIONS
01:15:43 — CHANNEL UPDATE
source
After much consideration I decided to split the 1 year update into two components, economic/political and military (including issues like attrition) with the latter coming either next week or the week after. Looking at it, I just had too much to say about the winter fighting, attrition, and force regeneration efforts to give it only half a video. I know people who voted in the poll were looking forward to that material, and I hope you understand the decision. All the best to everyone and thanks for your support as always.
this is the best channel on youtube. Thanks again.
Thank you – your outstanding work is very much appreciated.
"17C, the temperature the Brits will start breaking out the shorts and T-shirts."
Laughing in Canadian.
Would love to see your view on the feasibility of us military intervention against the cartels. Is it possible to wage while also maintaining our obligations in Europe and the Pacific. Would it help achieve any strategic goals. Ie Mexican manufacturing countering china. Or even just a mexico video tbh
Clausewitz pointed out that military struggle often came down to which side had more friction in its system.
Sanctions, demographics, and morale make me think Russia has more friction than Ukraine and its Western backers.
@Perun, excellent as usual and largely inline with data we have had from having an investment banker in Russia two years ago. We also are hearing all is not well in the Kremlin.
vv Russian budget:
Even zero increase could have a huge impact if combined with reduction in theft.
No idea if that is actually happening, but something to keep in mind
Well Done! Thank you, looking forward to part 2.
"To be clear, I do not know who destroyed the Nord Stream Pipeline".
Exactly what I'd expect someone who destroyed the Nord Stream Pipeline to say.
Excellent content as always
Sarcasm is a lost art. Beautiful!
There is plenty of kit in US storage. So why build new? If one can transfer the existing stock.
@PerunAU so can't the Chinese fill the manufacturing gap, like Europe does for Ukraine with regard to tank reparations etc? I am aware of the chip-war the US has imposed on the CCP, but like you said in this presentation… Ru is downgrading their thanks, and sure enough, China could live up to those standards…?
Perun have you actually looked into the claims from the OPCW whistle-blower Brendan Whelan? The OPCW was clearly compromised
Thanks again for the video! Any indication of the strategic implications of increasing utilisation of renewable energy sources in the civilian economy?
As a Singaporean, being a tiny country, the idea of being threatened by a nearby larger nation probably led to that 25% support for doing whatever it takes for Ukraine who's living our worst nightmare right now. After Japan invaded in the past it was Indonesia that attacked, then Malaysia constantly threatening our water, now China looms.
To at least some degree, the US Republicans who want to see Ukraine aid throttled back are only opposed because a Democrat is in power and managing the aid. That’s literally it. If a Democrat wants to get a Republican to admit the sky is blue, the best way to do so is to claim it’s red. You will hear all kinds of excuses and rationalizations for why aid should be cut in media interviews, but they are largely whataboutisms (the recent train derailment being the latest one…tomorrow it will be something else). When they’re not in charge, Republicans are the Party of No, because hating Democrats is what makes their base excited. That’s not even a criticism: it’s just true.
We have thousands of Abrams in surplus, why the heck would we be waiting on new build tanks for Ukraine?
The other donors are pulling tanks from existing inventory.
This is a typical example of self-inflicted obstruction.
And still no one other than the usa benefits from Nord Stream's destruction.
24:21 yeah, shithole countries with way too many people to sustain.
17c that’s taps aff temps.
I don't think the statement of "has it been successful depends on your outlook" is correct,, the measure is quite simply is Russia developing enough profit to continue waging war? That is the goal of the sanctions and that is the objective, different measures don't matter. It does not matter is Russian oil exports stay the same if they are making no money of selling the oil. So, is Russia making less money? Will it create a trade deficit that pushes Russia into using reserves? This would mean that it becomes more and more difficult to wage war on the Ukraine and the longer that goes on, the more they burn through reserves the closer they get to economic disaster.
Nuclear armed nations going to war with each other!
Who wins?
The nuclear weapons!
25:30 … It is not surprising that so many Canadians want to send the military into Ukraine. There are more Ukrainians living in Canada than any other nation outside of Ukraine and Russia. We have a special connection to that country.
On a side note, we also have nearly as many Scots and Irish as there are in Scotland and Ireland, so no one should invade those countries either.
Hahaha @ “5% more evil than your average utility”
As always. Informative and to a high standard. Thanks
Hi, don't forget that for the Russians to replace the tanks they also need to replace the tank crews.
The loses of these tank crews also loses them the experience of what the crews have Learnt, the working of the tank. Not something that you learn over the weekend end it takes months to be able to run your tank competently time I would say that they don't have.
To explain the Republican split Perun there is two "camps" if you will within the party, on one side you have the populist camp (the one in opposition) and the neocon camp (the camp that everyone pictures when they think of Republicans). The populist side is not suggesting aid be cut off completely only that strict financial and material (especially the former since we have a lot of things here at home that money could be used for) accountability be adhered to on both sides and not just writing blank checks for whatever, then you have the neocons which are the ones interested in keeping the Washington machine going at all costs and will vote for whatever complies with that, which in this case means voting in lockstep with the current administrations whims regarding Ukraine.
Where they both are in agreement on is that the Biden administration and by extension the Democrats as a whole have handled this situation incredibly poorly, would/could Republicans have done a better a better job? Who knows, frankly I'm not even sure if its possible, tho I will say that this current administration has handled foreign policy as a whole quite terribly in particular when it comes to non NATO/EU allies, with the most famous example being Biden's whole utter debacle with the Saudis which has pushed them closer to China and Russia as a result in particular the former.
Which wasn't the best play as we could have leveraged a increased Saudi hydrocarbon production to help better offset the loss of the Russian sources, also it has pushed them to consider accepting the Chinese Yuan instead of Dollars as a means of exchange for hydrocarbon trade, which could have far reaching consequences in the future for both the US and global trade as a whole.
A surprisingly bloodthirsty portion of the population of Australia …. aka Emus
47:02 wait, is that one of Bulgaria's former finance ministers or someone else?
No mention of the EU trade deficit to Russia… 6 billion Euros…. while only a third of what it was, apparently something is still getting sold.
No mention of Serbia, Bulgaria, and Hungary still receiving gas from Russia via Ukraine….
IOW, Ukraine is still earning money on Russian gas….
China has imported 4.1 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia through the "Power of Siberia" pipeline. By 2025, this is expected to grow to 38 Billion cubic meters per annum (with a total capacity of 61 billion per annum). Nearly enough to compensate volume-wise for the loss of EU gas.
There are a lot assumptions around the limits imposed wrt oil and gas pricing. That there are no further shocks to the global energy system, for example.
Very little is said about how the invasion of Ukraine is redrawing global commodity flows while handing even greater power to China. Which is not necessarily something the collective West wants either. Saying that it is painful for Russia belies the fact that these sanctions are hurting us, and furthermore, aiding the single biggest real challenge to Western power in the next 30 years.
Where I don't trust every poll, due to measurements ("right of the bat" or mixed after gender, education and income level), polls can say a lot more about the mood of people than about the topic "Support for Ukraine or Defense Budget". I don't look them up or use them as a "given" like heavy politicized pundits on air doing it "on purpose". Perun clearly didn't do it here, he always tend to "clarify/portrait" the numbers as good as he can! And we always should look into the shift in political climates of the respective country too! Where Poland might be "sailing too hard" on the defense side, other countries can't or won't spend more for the military. In a democracy, you should have an ear on the people and do politics on their behalf. But you clearly can't always trust peoples opinions when making politics. That's the crux when you have to master politics and democracy in a nutshell.
The scandal about the Nordstream story is not that people take Hersh seriously, but the fact that Hersh's reporting was even needed to be able to discuss the possibility that it was the USA or Ukraine in the Western mainstream media. While there is no convincing evidence whatsoever, our mainstream media declared right away that it was Russia and suppressed any discussion that it could have been the USA or Ukraine despite the obvious cui bono context. It's typical that US fanboy Perun didn't complain about that but now complains about too much credibility of Hersh.
14:09 What the Fu*k are you talking about. 2/7/2022 Xiden said "If Russia invades, that means tanks or troops crossing the … border of Ukraine again, then there will be … no longer a Nord Stream 2. We, we will bring an end to it," He all but admitted doing it. Now he is trying to blame the Ukrainians. Perun you need to get your sh@t together.