Poker Strat Chat: Gambler's Ruin & The Gambler's Fallacy | Only Friends Pod Ep 193 | w/Matt Berkey



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Join Matt Berkey, Christian Soto, Landon Tice and the rest of the Solve for Why team as they discuss the big topics within the poker community as well as current events and strategy.

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Special Photo Credit to Antonio Ambrego, Alec Rome & Hayley Hochstetler

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00:00 Countdown
04:59 Introduction 
07:46 Overview of today’s show 
08:45 Teaser of new episode out on S4Y 
09:53 February Poker Out Loud Academy 
10:40 Henry’s hand history from 5/5 PLO 
14:45 How to go about handling multiway all-ins in cash
19:09 How to handle people who do not exactly understand the “rules” 
24:35 Soft skills in live poker 
29:05 What should the floor do in this situation? 
31:00 Discussing integrity within poker 
34:45 Negotiation tactics within live poker 
40:30 Collusion vs. angling in poker
46:05 What happened with Bills player Damar Hamlin? 
48:09 Clip of similar injury in hockey some years ago 
50:18 How will the NFL respond and how will games be affected? 
52:02 Soft skills in poker off of the felt 
53:17 Discussing Gambler’s Fallacy
58:13 Breaking down Gambler’s Ruin and how it relates to win rate 
1:03:00 Discussing bankroll and risk
1:04:10 Berkey’s Live at the Bike situation and how it relates to bankroll management 
1:13:10 Tweet thread on having limited resources in a game of edge and how it relates to David vs. Goliath  
1:20:23 What risks are worth taking? 
1:24:35 Discussion on inability to project the future and how it can be detrimental 
1:30:50 Berkey talks about the Ivey’s Room games and the risks taken
1:34:20 What is “fuck you” rich and how is it attainable?
1:37:50 What is life on hard mode? 
1:42:23 Closing thoughts

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35 thoughts on “Poker Strat Chat: Gambler's Ruin & The Gambler's Fallacy | Only Friends Pod Ep 193 | w/Matt Berkey”

  1. 1:10. The risk of ruin has to increase 2 bullets vs 10 bullets.

    Even if you’re in for more variance as your stack size will increase due to the variance with the 10 bullets and they’ll go down.

    What are the chances you’ll lose 10, 20k pots? So you’d be sitting deeper fairly quickly

    Reply
  2. We correlate lucky and unlucky to just small probability outcomes, whether it is lucky or unlucky just depends on what side of the coin we are on, but it really is just a matter of a small probability situation outcome

    Reply
  3. for straight sports bets (not parlays) kelly is pretty simple if you can win 60% of the time if bets are -110…. then you bet 5% of your bankroll each bet… as you win that 5% bet gets bigger and you are compounding our money… if you lose your bets get smaller…. if you can't win 60% of the time you are going to lose…. it is hard to win 60% of the time… grab the book Fortune's Formula… good read and a lot to get out of it…you'll see if you read it how it is really used in stock market…

    Reply
  4. Loved the whole discussion about the nature of being a pro, deep dive into a truly pedantic EV situation (Henry's PLO problem), etc. This was good stuff, gents.

    And BTW, Matt – "playing life on hard mode" is what some of us would call "living an upright life." You gotta be able to look at the guy in the mirror, so if your standards, whatever they are, require you to play further inside the boundaries than the actual rule book says, that's what you gotta do.

    Section 8 Housing is actually a spectacular example. I looked into it briefly and then just shuddered – the money, the cap rate, all of it, was delicious. But it was clear that the GTO way to play it involved offering marginally livable housing to a lot of people in very tough circumstances, and collecting big checks from the Government. I could have made a ton of money, but I wouldn't have slept. No thanks.

    Reply

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