Tom welcomes the fascinating new guest Hugh Hendry to the show. Hugh talks about the challenges of setting up a hedge fund today. He paints a picture of the current markets as fiercely volatile, particularly with unusual events occurring that are supposed to happen once in a century. Additionally, debt and debt expansion shows no signs of ending.
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Hugh reviews the implications of China predominantly using domestic financing and the effects of their surplus in global trades. He harkens back to the gold standard when it acted as successful high powered currency on an international level before the US Federal Reserve’s involvement. The US now embraces debt to an unprecedented degree that is leading much of the world to a type of serfdom.
Should a conflict occur between Taiwan and China, markets would suffer a massive increase in volatility with a likely negative outcome. Meanwhile in China, their GDP metrics have failed, and the world’s economies are all in a state of decline. An example of this is the drop in financial sector stocks along with people fleeing banks to get to the 5% offered by the Fed.
Hugh’s view is that the 1934 Federal Reserve Act was made to mend the banking system, however, with current price deflation and reduced capital investment, it has been ineffective. Market stabilizers, such as short selling, also aren’t able to prove as useful as before and capital controls remain a risk.
He highlights the Marxist ideology that has resurfaced recently, as younger generations are no long seeing the promised level of success available to their parents. Hugh states we are in the “Fourth Depression”, and he breaks down how each of the previous three was resolved.
Considering reasonable trades in relation to this environment, Hugh suggests considering Bitcoin as one of the few assets currently undervalued.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:57 – Hedge Fund Start
5:57 – Bubbles & Trends
10:32 – Debt Expansion & China
16:07 – China’s Labor Force
22:32 – Taiwan & Conflict Risk
28:30 – Fed Aggressiveness
36:00 – Capital Flight Controls?
40:55 – Feds Usefulness?
48:40 – Foreign Capital & Equities
55:08 – Wealth Protection?
1:06:18 – Trades, Nvidia & Bitcoin
1:10:33 – Thoughts on Gold
1:15:48 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
– We are in an unprecedented period of volatility and debt expansion, with growing potential for conflict.
– There has been a lack of counter moves to the overvaluation, as well as financial repression resulting from negative real rates and the possibility of a fourth depression.
– Bitcoin could be one of the few assets currently undervalued and he explains his views on gold.
Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/@hendry_hugh
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@HughHendryOfficial
Website: https://hughhendry.com/
Acid Capitalist Podcast: https://open.spotify.com/show/5zj3Ox1qRD9GSynCKJIODS
Hugh Hendry was born in 1969 in Glasgow, Scotland, and graduated from Strathclyde University with a degree in Business Administration and Economics and Finance in 1990. His career began at Edinburgh asset management company Baillie Gifford, followed by Credit Suisse and Odey Asset Management. In 2005, he founded Eclectica Asset Management.
Hendry is renowned for his risk-taking and thought-leadership in global capital markets. His prescience in forecasting the Great Financial Crisis of 2008 earned him a reputation as a prophetic iconoclast. He has achieved success on social media, including a successful podcast, viral posts, and appearances on Bloomberg, the Economist, and Institutional Investor. Hendry now resides in St. Barts, where he is a leading investor in luxury real estate. He achieved a 31.2% positive return in 2008 and was featured on Financial News’slist of the 100 most remarkable people in European capital markets.
Often giving interviews, participating in TV programs and conferences, and known for his contrarian views, Hugh Hendry is an influential figure in today’s market makers.
@HughHendryOfficial #China #DebtExpansion #FinancialMarkets #Crisis #Volatility #GoldStandards #Taiwan #Socialism #Depression #Bonds #Treasuries #TLT #Miners #Agriculture #Calamity #Bubbles #GoldStandard
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It’s Bono
Victor Hugo.
This was great Tom – Hugh, what are you thoughts on the over stimulation of the US Economy? Stagflation?
Snake swallowing an elephant? U do realize the snake is dead now for trying to ?
Hugh Hendry comes across as a nutter.
Eccentric
Hugh don’t listen to music when getting interviewed it’s ignorant or comes across as such.
Garry from Scotland
Hugh not really on board with gold – Does not really mention what is happening in the East – He talks about the real world – Look where he is living – Hugh does not live in the real world – He is Elite and is betting on them – Real people are now suffering from Inflation and a threat to Individual Sovereignty – Gold/Silver is opting out of system to retain sovereignty – To deny that the US is not suppressing price to keep people in debt bonds like Hugh is buying, is interesting – The Fed is Scared of Gold and as price rises – You know your over the target whenever anyone brings it up with these people – Why do you think it is such a secret how much every country owns ! The US will not even mention it ! For this round of monetary reset coming, Gold will be part of the system – Bitcoin will do well but is not ready to take the system over – Gold will have one more Cycle in our Human story (which is mostly a lie)
Hugh hendry? Seriously? No thanks
Why no mention of briccs nations
Please ask Mr. Hendry to do just a tad less cocaine before the next interview so maybe he'll make some sense. What a disappointing guest.
Great interview. I think he is right about interest rates and wrong about gold. I used to dislike him but no longer.
All Good things.. come to an End . Nothing lasts forever.. 😮
A Fed, Stalin, Keynes and Musk apologist all in one. The sheer amount of mental gymnastics and amnesia required to agree with this guy is beyond me. Thanks Tom.
this guy is just an entertainment clownassniffer that rambles aimlessly between coherence and dementia lmfao
IS THAT BONO FROM U2???
Great job 🎉
TLT TLT TLT TLT is the most actionable and most interesting point made in this discussion for me ,interestingly Paul Tudor Jones also hinting at TLT just took an initial position TLT , so skin in the game looking at 108 as confirmation Hugh Hendry mention 110 seems to a plain vanilla play on inflation coming down and rates following a consider it to be an asymmetrical bet upside far outweighs the calculable downside best of luck to all 🎉
Within the interesting noise that Hugh creates their is signal , I am sure that you have to solve the riddle to know which is truely signal , my feeling is that TLT is his strongest conviction. , I love how he makes you work to uncover this Scottish creative eccentricity at its finest 😂very few authentic people in This would Hugh is clearly one of them and overall he just make me laugh which on its own has huge value to me 😂
So interesting. given me much to chew upon. Thanks Palisades Radio, I hope you’ll invite Mr Hendry again. Always a brilliant interviewer too
Gold is insurance and real money. Now a Tier one asset.
get rid of your offensive intro
Wow…..good stuff in there. This interview was very good. Get the feeling Hugh is cutting back on the Fruit Punch and Cool-Aide( not the refreshment kind , the Q-E kind…….I think Hugh is prepping to go round #2 with a Private High End Hedge Fund. May mean he's comm'n back to do some headhunts (short then bargain buying cheap ) !! Be on the lookout for Hugh's Big Return..!!
Hugh Hendry has outright lost his mind. He has no idea what he is talking about when it comes to China and provides the most juvenile speculations on the political workings of Chinese society. It just doesn't compute for him that a top down economy cannot have an open interface external bottom up economies without losing its top down feature. All the Western bottom up economies are rotten and failing. If anything China needs to reduce its connections and eventually quarantine itself off completely from this collapsing pile of mess that is the western lead economic order.
Also Hugh needs to stop blaspheming Keynes's name. Keynes's was a pragmatist to the core and would not condone the kind of dysfunctional free market capitalism we have today. His views would be much more aligned with the Chinese planners, stressing long term planning and top down control of the economy. Keynes also would be the last person that favors consumption over investment. Any competent economist knows that the best growth policy is always to suppress consumption as low as possible to save the most money possible for investment. This is as true for the individual as it is for the firm as it is for all of society. To believe otherwise is to believe in the free lunch.