EP 193: ASU's Money Perch 4/15 Letter. FPI's Preseason Top 25 has been released (ESPN)



ASU’s Money Perch, a PATC Source, letter of April 15 has been released and we will go though it and do deep dive into what is all means.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi

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44 thoughts on “EP 193: ASU's Money Perch 4/15 Letter. FPI's Preseason Top 25 has been released (ESPN)”

  1. I think your ASU money perch is right over the target. GK is down to cold calling minor linear players in hopes of finding some money and linear to put in his deal. That's not a sign of a good environment. I'm not going to blame GK completely at this point he's simply reaping the rewards of misreading the market at the opening, and missing out on the deal he could have made then. Now there isn't any deal, except a very sub-par one with limited visibility and low payout. I think CU & UA see that and will pull the trigger in your window, and that saves your source from the fate he fears.

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  2. I think Arizona Colorado is a given other than that the rest of Pac 12 will go down with the ship imo Yormark should go after Oregon State and SDSU he would get a full pop on the 3 Pac 12 teams and supplement with UT/OU money

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  3. My guess is the Presidents ALL know the numbers or what they will be and that isn’t changing. The proposals are in. The question now is whether it is sustainable and whether there is the political support institutionally to move.

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  4. I think we're finally about to witness the collapse of the PAC and more and more I'm hearing rumors that UW is also in talks to join the Big XII if the B1G door is firmly shut.

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  5. To answer your question, "Why would you not wait to see what George Kliavkoff comes up with?" there is no way they can match the Big 12 deal because networks understand there are not enough CFB fans watching PAC games on TV. ESPN is the only major sporting network interested in the PAC and they want 1, maybe 2, games a week and they are not close to what the PAC wants to keep up with the Big 12 & stay halfway behind the SEC & B1G.

    Fox, CBS, and NBC already said they have what they want from the PAC in the B1G in USC & UCLA. The networks have spoken and the Big 12 is safe for now because Fox wants a presence in Texas.

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  6. As an ASU alum, this seems to track with some of what I’ve been hearing. People hate to hear it, but it also is contingent on what happens with UofA’s analysis. They will drive the bus with AZBOR decision to allow a move.

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  7. No disrespect but nothing we all haven't known for awhile. We knew Washington and Oregon were not interested in anything over 5 years since the initial 12 year 350, 10 year 300, and 5 year 25 number was reported.

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  8. The revenue level & exposure is known, but the details are unknown – however, the details are unimportant for purposes of making a decision. The revenue level over the next 5 years is unsustainable, yet they may still be inclined to sign a 5 year unsustainable deal rather than changing conferences, due to lack of institutional support for a move.

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  9. Topics to discuss:

    1) The imperative of Annual Playoff Flexibility.

    2) The Mountain10 Conference. (The Mount-ten)

    3) Notre Dame and "Protected Independent" status. The "Independent Invitational." -Senator Manchin

    4) B1G expansion or GPAC16?

    5) The critical role sports play in American societal control. -Pettiti

    If I call again, let me know if you'd like to hear about any of these topics… ✌🤠✌

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  10. “Hopefully someone will want us in 5 years”. Sounds like those in the athletic decision making wants to leave, but doesn’t have the support of others inside the University. Basically saying hopefully this doesn’t think our value at the end of five years.

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  11. That letter, in no uncertain terms, says the Pac media deal will be unacceptable. We can now stop pretending. I believe Colorado is leaving. They invested heavily in Deion. They cannot be left on the fringes of media exposure, or be left with uncompetitive budgets.

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  12. Georgia, USC, Michigan, Texas or Texas Tech. That’s your final four. Georgia 3 peat. Usc wins the league and takes the four spot. Big 12 knocks out Michigan again. Plays a closer final vs Georgia.

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  13. Very interesting. Sounds like the PAC lives no matter what (which I am happy with), because they can afford to lose UA, ASU, and CU. I don't think it will impact the money, especially if it is already as low as it appears to be. Oregon and Washington are the only schools that can kill the conference, so unless a B1G invite comes, the PAC will be fine. Let them work out the streaming difficulties, so other conferences can take advantage of those services in 2031.

    As for the XII, I would be very happy to get 1-3 PAC schools, as I think it would add to the stability of the conference – something that we are not used to having. Arizona's basketball is the biggest fish, but Prime coaching the Buffs is good marketing. If none come over, I am fine with the 12 that we have on board now.

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  14. Sure, I believe that OSU has a 37% chance of winning it all. I also believe the Titanic really did safely make it to NY harbor, that the recent Covid virus came from bats and the moon is made of green cheese.

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  15. You know we all assume adding the four corner schools would be great and a given but the BIGXII should be cautious when adding any PAC schools as there are definite reasons they can’t get a good deal. Also so many assume the B1G will take UW, UO, Stanford and Cal, none of which are additive from all accounts.

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  16. The Reality like is that further PAC movement may hinge upon what happens in the ACC. Smells like The Big Ten isnt cracking open The PAC any further until that happens. So, will The Big 12 grab now or will they just wait till The B1G does the heavy lifting so that The Big 12 can mop up the mess afterwards with smaller initial payouts for whom it gets? If The Big 12 signs now, they probably have to promise equal payouts from the very beginning to whomever they get. That wont necessarily be the case though after another B1G raid. So five years may be the window that is projected for The ACC situation to get worked out.

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  17. Thanks Greg, another great show. The ASU money perch mentioned something that I had thought about before. What if the Pac schools are so damaged by the new tv deal that in five years the B12 is longer interested? Sounds crazy but if a money perch guy is wondering how crazy is it?

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  18. FPI is garbage. It used to seem legit, but I noticed all year last year that is was bad. They consistently underrate Washington and the Pac-12. They way overrate the Big 12. It’s the same usual suspects. They also had Baylor and OU as top 25 teams at the end of the year last year and had Texas in the Top 10. You don’t even really move up by beating a higher team. FPI is used for propaganda purposes to tell you who ESPN wants to say is good.

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  19. If my Sun Devils don't have the courage and foresight to make the move now and reap the benefits of getting established. God help them. Waiting for the eventual B1G grab of four more PAC schools would be foolish beyond belief.

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  20. With all due respect, that letter sounds a bit like Big Lubbock propaganda… lol. Assuming this is someone in ASU's accounting office, they may have access to budget models, but I think the timing of all this remains the publically unknown aspect, and its all pro Lubbock conjecture. And there is no rush for ASU. If the B1G leaves them behind, the Lubbock will always be there… or maybe even better: The Mountain10.

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  21. The only schools that add to the Big Ten payout would be Florida or Florida state, Texas and Notre Dame. A fourth would be a Charity case of either Arizona or probably Colorado for mountain time zone coverage. You heard that right.. the B1G Will poach Texas and Florida from the SEC.

    U of NJ
    Penn State
    Maryland
    Florida
    Ohio State
    Michigan
    Michigan State
    Illinois
    Northwestern
    Indiana
    Purdue
    Wisconsin
    Minnesota
    Iowa
    Texas
    Nebraska
    Texas
    Colorado
    USC
    UCLA

    That’s the end game and a juggernaut.

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  22. UT-Arlington passes student fees to eventually have FBS football. Smart timing before its restricted by a much harder process. Great location. Recruit on a bicycle.

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  23. One of OSU, Alabama or Georgia will win the National Title. It would take an enormous amount of randomness and injury for another team to do so. They are the three elite recruiters (multiple big classes, average star ratings of their players and how many top 100 prospects they have on their rosters). I'd have Michigan as a solid number four in their own tier (that's the one team that maybe could win the title if alot of things out of their control fall their way), then it's fairly wide open from about 5-12. Florida State has certainly improved and could win the ACC, but nowhere near the roster of those other top programs. USC will score a ton but their defense has a ways to go and I don't think they have the physicality up front to compete at a high level. Same with Washington. TCU loses alot, and won a ton of close games against solid to good competition last year. I could absolutely see them falling quite a bit. The best way to go about the prediction models is to take an aggregate of those that seem the most accurate (Sagarin, Kelly Ford, FPI, SP+, etc). Not to mention, if you check out Vegas, they have a similar thought to the numbers. You can still get a prop bet of the big three (OSU, GA, ALA) or the field. The only bad preseason rank I saw while scanning it was Texas, who shouldn't be that high.

    As for the money perch letter, I don't know what to think of any of this stuff. Whenever things happen they happen. Until then I don't know that anyone really knows what will occur.

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  24. Oregon and Washington will leave the minute the Big 10 makes an offer, why on Earth would Colorado, Arizona and ASU stay? Jump now while you can or be a victim with no (or limited) options later on.

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