Wars are bad for business but good for defense stocks. The outperformance of global defense stocks since the start of Biden’s presidency says a lot about the direction of US foreign policy under his watch. In an era where geopolitical risks loom large, the defense sector growth forecast remains a beacon for investors navigating the uncertain waters of the 2024 election and its impact on global markets. As the world grapples with the remnants of the Washington Consensus and the shifting sands of economic liberalization, Yellen’s views on China trade underscore the complex interplay between economic policies and global power dynamics. Against this backdrop, defense stocks stand at the crossroads of defense spending and its impact on economic growth, and the economic benefits of a peace dividend, highlighting a profound tension between peace and economic prosperity. The performance of the MSCI World Aerospace and Defense Index, despite the Boeing impact on defense stocks, signals a robust defense industry outlook 2024, buoyed by high-value defense stocks 2024. This resilience, perhaps a testament to Thomas Hobbes’ grim view of human nature, underscores the political risk premium attached to sectors pivotal to national security and NATO commitment. Biden’s strategy on China, particularly the technology sanctions on China, illustrates the pivotal role of US military aid to Ukraine in shaping the geopolitical chessboard. As defense spending increase aligns with US dollar strength, the narrative of economic impact of military spending evolves, revealing a nuanced landscape where economic impact of US defense aid and China’s adjustment to Washington Consensus play critical roles. The aerospace defense index performance, alongside the peace dividend benefits, offers a glimpse into the potential for a future where defense contractor performance harmonizes with the ancient ideals of trade and commerce in Ancient Rome, aiming for a world where election impact on the defense industry steers us towards a semblance of stability and prosperity. Why is the 2024 election about what America will do with the broken Pax Americana? Why is a second Biden term bullish for defense stocks and the USD and the opposite will be true under a second Trump term? Who will bring us closer to a WW3? former top-ranked Wall Street global macro strategist tells it as it is. You may not agree with everything he says but he will make you reassess everything you thought you knew.
​​#USForeignPolicy #GeopoliticalRisks #DefenseStocks
#2024USElection
0:00 Intro
0:52 US Foreign Policy Benefits the US
2:19 US Defense Spending Shaped the World
4:23 The End of Pax Americana?
6:44 The Unintended Consequence of Pax Americana
8:10 What Is the US Going to Do?
10:10 Where Trump Stands on Military Spending
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Buy commodities and defence stocks.
This is why I feel like a conspiracy theorist; I can't believe that the Americans of the last 50 years thought it would be good to industrialize China and I'm left suspecting that there are 2 America's, one controlled by Plutocrats who have used the USSR and China as experiments to test the viability of Authoritarianism; and the other, a neutered, sham America that pretends to have legitimate Democracy.
I guess they could have thought that riches would cause revolution in China and maybe a break-up but that's a little far fetched, lol, like it doesn't make sense but could be used as an excuse.
GM David. I think one aspect of this video that could have been strengthened is explaining how GDP has changed since the 1970s and what it's made up of when calculated. Military spending as a percentage of GDP when GDP has exploded up over the last 50 years makes the 2% vs 6% military spending comparison inaccurate. The United States has the largest GDP in the world, with a nominal GDP of $25.46 trillion as of 2022. GDP can be calculated in three ways – using expenditures, production, or incomes. The major sectors that contribute to US GDP are: Real estate, rental, and leasing – 12%, Manufacturing – 11%, Educational services, health care, and social assistance – 8%, Professional, scientific, and technical services – 7%, Retail trade – 6%, Information – 6%, Finance and insurance – 6%, Transportation and warehousing – 3%, Agriculture – 0.9% of GDP. This year's military spending is in the $900 billion dollar range and has been steadily growing even through Trump's first term. GDP has skyrocketed and it's calculations changed greatly since the 70s. Thoughts?
On-point.
David, what’s the name or source of the music used? I’d like to listen to it on a loop!
finally something that is not bias but reality. The title is misleading . A bit too dramatic. But the dichotomy between two possible foreign policies is spot on. I still firmly believe that a trump goal would to be to establish an alliance with the major authoritarian governments. He will form a triad with China in the east, Russia in Eurasia and NATO will be on their own. It will tear the history books up and form a new world of powerful dictatorships governing the third world Europe will survive. That's what they do for 2000 years
Excellent as always.
WHAT PAZ ROMANA EUROPE IS A LAND WITHOUT RESOURCES IT LOOTED EVERYONE !!! JUST AS AMERICANS LOOTS TODAY SO MUCH SO IT OWN PEOPLE HAVE BEEN LOOTED VIA FIAT !!!! SO PLEASE ENOUGH OF THE BS !!!!!!!!!!!!!!
David is your last comment an euphemism for the risk of an assassination attempt on presidential candidate Trump high. 🤔
This analysis sounds like Vietnam logic. We have invested too much to stop fighting/spending. I fear Mr. Woo is correct.
Very good coments! Go ahead
A comment on your previous video about the recent gold rally: Aside from the recent geopolitical worsening, another recent development which may be impacting the price of gold is the increased focus by major investors like Ray Dalio and the Fed and CBO on the unsustainable nature of the U.S. and global deficits and debt. This causes investors to hedge their bond positions with perceived stores of value, like gold and perhaps Bitcoin.
Excellent analysis as always David. Do you think a multipolar world, with essentially two dominant superpowers, offers a more favorable alternative to the continued dominance of Pax Americana?
Did Biden push Ukraine to attack Russia? No, it's not what happened. Should Russia be afraid of the threat from NATO? No, Russia is a country with greatest nuclear arsenal, the fear of NATO was for Moscow just a pretext for war. The KGB guys understand the approach of the end of the long period of high prices for commodities, therefore, in order to stay in power they have to demonstrate the so called "Great Victories" and to consolidate their population by means of a confrontation with the West. What was the ultimatum to NATO of December of 2021, demanding its retreat from Eastern Europe about?
The US ZOG & the central banksters.
A video essay equivalent of a moth hitting a street light thinking he just landed on the Moon. This doesn't mean other moths wouldn't think the same thing. It also doesn't transform the street light to a moon.
What about pavertee .
No president will succeed because sovereign debt crisis will wipe everyone this year or the next!
Exelent presentation, thank you Sir
WW3? Apparently MIC and those closely connected with it Eventually, all living things will die. You tell who can benefit if all are dead?
Really???? Someone would benefit from WWIII??? This idiot is too shortsighted to know anything !!!!😮
Great job as always, thank you David.
It is not clear that Biden election was causative of the growth in defense spending. I would like to see studies that support this causative claim.
Trump pulled out of a lot of foreign policy partnerships between the US and other countries and the global pandemic was a huge factor in slowing down defense spending.
I am not sure about the conclusions drawn in this report, specifically how well-supported they are by political scientists specializing in foreign-policy and peer-reviewed studies.
Bidenomics means more trillions out the door on the backs of the middle class private sector. More inflation, more shortages, more restrictions, more sanctions and NO support of other western countries because they are USE to America paying for all wars and aid to other countries. Why do we put a priority on defense stocks over the taxpayers who are forced to pay for it? If people want to slow the bleed… they should vote for Trump in 2024.
Calling the military weapons created it is an oxymoron to call them Defense stocks
Obviously usa benefits and this is why its pushing philippine into war against china so to create ww3 to kill and destroy the world so usa can benefit from this ww3 . Way too obvious
Interesting that Yellen was, at least according to Woo, in China partly to tell them to STOP subsidizing green energy products. I thought that was what the US has been doing for a LONG time now. More on that please.
A new Biden term is Bullish for defense stocks. Another way to say this is that a second Biden term will be bearish for potentially millions of human lives.
Basicaly Woo is saying that s vote for Trump is a vote for a more peaceful world, while a vote for Biden is the opposite. No brainer for me who has two gransons 20 and 18 and who was in the Marines in the late 60's and was fully disgusted when McNamara the defense Secretary under Johnson said in his book of 1995 (no doubt paid well for it too) that VietNam was a mistake. Great…. just great…. for the many guys in my squal, platoon and company, whose names are on the disgraceful VietNam was memorial.
The entire stock market is currently doing well. Unemployment is low, GDP is up, inflation is down, crime is down, while Trump is illegally promoting his scam truth social which is losing money regardless as he is headed to prison.
Bye Bye 👋 Biden& Yellen. The worst administration in US history.
They may kill Trump
if gold price continuing racing to the moon that's indicator the empire no longer able to manipulate $USD. however; the empire must continue on massive QE.
may be the elitist wants to depopulate the world
China and Russia’s ambition to displace US hegemony is not dependent on either Trump’s or Biden’s or any other future US presidents’ election into office. No doubt US events do have a huge impact on the world but please don’t fall into the trap of thinking that everything in the world revolves around the US. China and Russia will calibrate their strategic actions to triumph over whoever is in office. To think that their strategic objectives will change according to who is president is simply narcissistic. US initial abstinence from direct involvement in world war 2 did not dissuade Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan from acting out their geopolitical/ideological ambitions. We all know how that story unfolds. Can America be an isolationist today and maintain its leading position in the world? Of course not. Will the enemies of an isolationist America leave her alone after they dominate the world? It is politically naive to think that the US can be a happy undisturbed isolationist. Chinese and Russian domestic politics always played out with the complete destruction of all credible challengers. It will be foolhardy to think that the US can be an exception in this dangerous game of geopolitics.