Many have are missing why the Tesla Semi is a much much bigger business than most are forecasting. Randy shares some eye opening additional revenue for Tesla.
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With 10 successful books and 20 successful businesses under his belt, Randy Kirk has just launch the second of three books in a trilogy of books about Elon Musk.
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Steam engines are external combustion engines, but diesel engines ARE internal combustion engines.
You can't grow bigger than BIGGEST ON EARTH which is what Elon predicted, so this entire video is BOLOGNA
Everything comes down to battery production.
But only half of the patteries has to be of high energy density type.
For the forseeable future it's Litium mining which is the limiting factor. That's something Tesla needs to have control of.
And they are working on it!
Other chemistry will come, but that takes time. This decade, it's Litium!
"Zero cost for the energy" is just wrong.
Solar, wind, cost money to build and maintain. It may be less energy cost, but hardly free.
Trucking companies are all about cutting costs, if they see it they'll gobble it up.
Did he really say Diesel isn’t an ICE vehicle?
A great discussion these guys know Tesla, Randy is a convert and he is right he recognises the size of these new Tesla business, as those Semi trucks start to hit the road those truckers are smart they will realise that they can carry loads more than 200 miles from base because they can drive 500 miles straight, pull over for a night stop recharge and keep going.. with a 30% cheaper drive than a ICE truck this is going to change the economics of freight and prices could even drop in the shops. Tesla charging stations will replace the Gas stations.
All legacy auto has to do to be assured success is copy what Tesla has done. Unfortunately, none will be able to do so in the "near" future.
The 100k Hertz order a couple years ago moved Tesla stock. A Walmart or other major company order will move stock when they ramp up
The limiting factor in the short and middle term, if we’re talking about this production of vehicles, will be batteries. I know Elon and the team said batteries are not a problem now but I think if they’re going to be if they do such ramping; it’s going to be eating huge amounts of batteries.
Most trucks are doing 120,000 miles a year
Moving the freight from railroads to e-semi and highways will be a lot of wear and stress. They will shorten the lifespan of the road system
If a company replaces their ICE semi-trucks with electric trucks we should expect their drivers to suffer less pollution related asthma and other health complications. This ought to result in lower health insurance costs, better staff morale and fewer medical days off work. Note, that should be true for mechanics as well as drivers. Of course, this will be tiny numbers initially, but the more Tesla trucks are purchased at large companies there will be more and more observable effects, which will eventually provide leverage to negotiate health insurance rates down.
Wow, I love what Herbert described in the way of a Walmart-sized company seeking a combined deal of Solar plus Megapack plus Megacharger plus Semi-truck. How careful does Tesla need to be when considering such a deal? They don't want it to fall apart over delivery challenges or technical issues. Has Tesla actually configured a test package like this for their own use? I wonder if they can even put together such a contract, except for spreading it out over five or more years.
Ha! The delivery corridor tunnel concept is great, Randy. Remember my comment in a previous discussion regarding Boring Company demand for batteries. Might need another Megafactory or two if somebody buys into this idea.
Totally agree with you that Elon's projects are training a generation of managers capable of succeeding at levels of enormous scale, scope, speed and complexity. Sure hope I live long enough to see some of the really big ones begin.
Where is this guy getting numbers from? The US peaked at 800k new truck sales in 2019. The Tesla semi is a day cab limited to 300 to 400 mile trips if you have a charger at both ends. Seeing how there are exactly 1 Semi charger in the US that isn't at a companies HQ. Seeing how the Semi isn't compatable with Tesla's existing charging network. Someone is going to have spend 10s of millions of dollars building new truckstops for the semi's
Realistically your looking at 8 to 10% of the annual sales. Trucking companies are micro bean counters.
Pepsi Co, being one of the largest fleets in the US can afford to take a chance on Tesla. If it doesn't work as advertised. Boom written off. And they got good press off it.
Actually diesels are ICE vehicles since they combust flammable fuel internally. How about Tesla Semis with FSD and no human driver, staffed with Optimus robot(s) for loading and unloading cargo to disrupt LTL shipping?
I think Randy is just a bit shy of reality. There are only 4 million semi’s in the US and even if you considered all semi’s world wide, there isn’t a market for the numbers he is suggesting. He is comically over optimistic
For the foreseeable future they are a printing machine for short mid length semi needs. Think safeway, CVS, McDonald’s etc. Don’t even need the current range available, for these needs
Not sure about the impact of FSD with the semi. In what position will you not require a person (robot) to implement the unloading of 1/5 stops. A ways away in my opinion
If Randy truly believed this then ALL of his cash would be in Tesla stock. I wonder if that is the case. Why is nobody talking about battery trains? A battery train can roll into a community that has suffered a power failure and power it for a day. Another train can pull in 24 hours later. Weight is not a problem for trains. Consider the weight of a coal train.
Silly question. Why can't trains be electric?
Will we see Tesla trailer..solar roof, batteries in floor to run fridge freezer and extend the semis range.. It would also have regen brakes.. Bosch has a trailer like this out now.. This would make sense when batteries aren’t limited supply.
Screw Disney World, I want to go to this Elon Musk Expo Randy is talking about. MuskLand, Elon World, what are some good names for a theme park built around Elon's ideas?
Rail will remain but they will be Tesla powered trains – the infrastructure is in place
A Boring machine for the Boring company is only small. A Boring machine for a semi is much bigger, slower and much more expensive.
Tesla can finance the semi trucks and the Energy Storage equipment too
I've been fascinated by the Semi since its introduction. Randy and Herbert have touched on all the potentials that I've pondered over the years and added the tie to the Boring Company. Of those, I value the higher utilization of battery materials which, in turn (and not mentioned), will drive battery recycling as the battery materials spend a shorter calendar lifetime in the vehicle.
A minor feature of rapidly expanding the Tesla Semi for the first several years might actually be advertizing the Tesla brand. Many individuals are resistant to EV's in general and grasp the various claims that EV's just can't perform well enough to displace ICE. The distinctive shape of the Semi ( and the Cybertruck, as well) make it difficult to not notice that something different is fulfilling what these individuals identify as being the "impossible" missions for EV's. I anticipate that these vehicles performing commercial activities will do more to erode the resistance of this populace to the viabilities of EV's in their own activities. I am an EV enthusiast, may not be typical, but as a retired old fart, I was still excited the first time I noticed a Rivian-produced Amazon EV delivery vehicle deliver my package.
You both are great keep it up
The regenerative breaking is not accurate. ICE truck drivers that use breaks on a hill are bad drivers, trucks will use engine and exhaust breaking unless in an emergency (or they're new driver and picked the wrong gear at the top).
Has anyone here ever read "Trucking And the Decline of the American Dream"?
I have been trying to get my hands on it.
🤖🧡
I don't believe a regular semi truck would fit in a Boring tunnel. So Tesla may have to build special trucks.
One thing you’re not taking into account regarding regular maintenance is tire wear, wear BEV’s are known to consume tires at a much higher rate than ice vehicles. I can imagine that this will only be much worse with semi trucks, considering the weight of the truck component itself is more than a conventional diesel truck. Try to always be as balanced as possible.
Too much earth worship and too little facts on the economics. They don’t even know the selling price of the truck! Great conversation if you’re sitting on your porch with a beer in your hand as you dream away.
I'm looking forward to seeing my first cybertruck, and semi!
Also reducing the incredible NOISE POLLUTION…. NO ONE IS TALKING ABOUT THIS incredible benefit. 👍👍👍🌏🔥🙏
They have TRUCK TRAINS ALREADY in Australia- driving across the Australian desert…. They will be lining up for Tesla Train set-ups. 🔥🌏
Tesla didn't start the price war. It was started indirectly, and probably unintentionally, by lobbyists aiming to modify the IRA to exclude popular EVs such as the model Y. That plan backfired because they neglected to consider the Tesla could simply drop prices to qualify.
I still don't get why hybrids are in. The point of EVs is to NOT USE GAS, not to have a battery. Oh yeah, lobbyists. A hybrid is just an ICE vehicle with pretty good mileage, so a decade or two ago would make sense to give incentives to high mileage vehicles including hybrids on the basis of fuel economy. But now the path forward is obviously transition to EVs.
And why do SUVs get special treatment? Especially if the definition is based on weight? Really?
When the Semi’s are readily available, diesels will be retired early. During the ramp-up, companies will keep their current diesels running longer to avoid replacing them w/ diesels.
Not the whole story, just the initial thought . . .
Does anyone know if Tesla is working on a Tesla semi trailer? Maybe with solar panels on the top and sides with some batteries for storage to help power the Tesla Semi? Also there could be regular chargers installed at truck stop parking lots and yards they don’t all need to be truck chargers. Drivers have to take a 10 hour break each day.
I have suggested to Elon before on a tweet that Canada would also be another great place to build a Gigafactory on the Great Lakes and be able to ship across Canada and outward down the St Lawrence. This Gigafactory could be producing much needed additional batteries for Tesla. A Semi Truck Line, Cybertrucks and other accessories including solar panels to charge these batteries could be built here. The truck market is huge across Canada and many of the raw resources are here to put into building batteries, etc. Drone ships like the ones used to catch the boosters and fairings for SpaceX could be used insink, linked with each other to transport large amounts of Tesla's throughout the area. The nice thing about shipping through water ways is that you are not congesting traffic. Shipping could be faster, cheaper and safer. Isn't it funny after they talked to Canadian political officials there is still nothing on the board to be built here in Canada ! I have many innovative business ideas I come up with regularly that can help existing situations, whether it be financially, physically, or through faster delivery procedures. Sometimes the ground breaking ideas just flow and flow into each other. I just had three more Amazing Ideas while I was writing this comment! Innovative people with integrity expect to be believed otherwise they let time prove them right!
In it for AI and energy , bought some more at $109 and $110.
The guy is projecting 500B of incremental revenue by 2030 but can't calculate how much solar is required to charge a megapack. Please come up with real numbers.
"According to Walmart policy, a General Merchandise ( GM ) truck should be unloaded within 2 hours." Truck can be charged while unloading without additional time being eating up.
"How long does it take movers to unload? On average, two moving helpers can unload a 10' truck in 1-2 hours, a 16' truck in 2.5 hours, and a 26' truck in 3.5 hours."
After hours 192.77