War is coming home to Russia (again)! Ukraine-Russia-War Sitrep



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46 thoughts on “War is coming home to Russia (again)! Ukraine-Russia-War Sitrep”

  1. Re your comments about the Gepard, the units supplied to Ukraine appear (and I'm not 100% certain) to have been modified to fire AHEAD timed multi projectile (shotgun) rounds as they have the induction fuse setter muzzle devices in place of the original.myzzle velocity sensors.i think the new devices retain the latter function. It is entirely possible that 3 rpg works suffice in engaging a small drone, but sales promotional videos of the same rounds used in the latter skyguard Millenium, Mantis and Skynex cannon systems do show much longer bursts. According to a Jane's A&A from 1987/8 the original system fired burst lengths dependent on range to target of 20 to 40 rounds. This is with the original HEI and HEI-T ammo which was fused to burst just inside an aircrafts outer skin.

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  2. Is it possible to figure out if all the long range bombers are in flying condition? Do to the wast corruption in the army, I wonder if they simply have to cannibalize some planes just to keep the rest fairly air worthy πŸ€”
    I think the russians would absolutely line up non-flyable bombers too at the airfields to make it look more impressive than it actually is in the satellite photos, and in the hope that a sabotage raid will target the wrong bombers.
    Thoughts anyone?

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  3. Re the Gepard, the Radio Free Europe report said there is a problem with the Swiss supplier who is not allowed to supply arms to Ukraine. What's the story there? Has anyone got a reference on that?

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  4. Who took the picture s of the damaged plane and vehicle and how did we get them to see? Leaked from Russia vs other? I wouldn’t think Russia would want to publicize the damage and the specific call sign of the plane. Nice report, thank you

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  5. the Red Baron flies again… Fokker airplanes spotted over Moos-Cow… World War Zombie
    Museums have opened their doors to the War Effort or Putler, the incontinent, is using WW1 weapons… older and older stuff in the Stockpile
    Ukraine cannot confirm or deny little Green Men or UFOs in Ruzzia… but Smoke Em if you got Em… Drunken Ruzzian Orcs are smoking

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  6. Ruzzian Conscripts from Siberia / Far East are probably from Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Ukraine… even German… I'm guessing… forced resettlement / deportations are happening again with more sent to the concentration CAMPS… Gulags… etc… too weird… to believe… Displaced Persons = DPs

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  7. Hi Torsten.
    Some of the commentators pointed me to these videos where very few rounds are used to hit a Shaeed 136 drone. Unfortunately, I didn't stumble into them before the video release; otherwise, I would have withheld it to better understand this issue first.
    My info came from an Italian book that is about 30 years old (I was young at the time, but I already had these bad habits…), and the English language Wikipedia confirmed them.
    I remember a Combat Approved episode where a Russian SPAAG tried engaging a quadcopter, and it spent a number of rounds comparable to those I reported to shoot it down.
    Another commentator pointed me to a paper mentioning Gepard tests done in the middle east where a stationary drone at 1000 m was engaged with 20/24 rounds bursts. I didn't get into the details yet, but it seems consistent.
    I am a bit surprised that a small and "plasticky" drone like the S 136 could trigger a proximity fuse. A laser fuse would be triggered, likely, but a 35mm round is very small, and I wonder what the cost may be.
    I also suppose that the absence of evasive manoeuvres from the drones could be a factor.
    So, there is a number of things I have to understand because the results that we are shown and told are a bit counterintuitive. I will surely come back to this, probably in January, because if it turns out to be a factual error, I will need to rectify it.
    I believe that the general thesis of the video, that is, in this historical moment the offensive has the advantage, is still holding but I might have chosen a very bad example that does not support it, and it is already moving the gauge. I will also have a word with OTIS, who is supposed to verify all of this independently 😜.
    Keep up the good work!
    Gus

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  8. Good to see the Gepards being so effective with short bursts of fire. Is there a new supply line for ammo if the Swiss won't allow for the ammo they produce to be used?

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  9. If you search on YouTube you will f8nd lots of videos of Gepard firing what I would guess are 10-20 round bursts including multiple bursts per target. They could be using an automatic aiming offset to save the target though.

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  10. 74% support the war… Yeah, pretty much what you'd expect from Levada. Such support exist only on pages of such polls. At very best there is maybe 20% of population in any way supporting that war. The best case scenario it is 25%.

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  11. The biggest issue for Russia with these attacks is the fear one third of Thier nuclear Triad is easily taken out by conventional means
    While NATO never plan to attack Russia the fact they could do easily is a big concern for all the nationalist Russians who actually believe NATO is an enemy.
    It will also make it logistics harder for Russia when they next want to launch a missile attack. If they are at threat the planes and missiles cannot be in the open for long.

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  12. the gain from this strike is the hopeful redeployment of s300's, etc. to protect these assets. personally, I would have preferred an attack on the kremlin. if you mentioned this, sorry to be redundant.

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  13. The ukrainian attack on russian bases are attacks on parts of the russian nuclear defence, and the attack was performed by modified drones, that Ukraine probably had around 150 of when the war started. Ukraine has since the beginning of the SMO worked with these drones – and one of them went to Croatia (passing territory/airspace of NATO). Russia was obviously relying on the assumption that Ukraine wouldn't do a thing like attacking bases deep into its territory, but now the russians has to adjust. This is what has happened.

    WSJ wrote the other day that the HIMARS sent from the US are modified not to be able to use ATACMS; obviously they don't trust the Ukraine government/military.

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