Severe weather is expected on Wednesday and Thursday. For Thursday, the intense weather event will be more significant. This could turn into a severe weather outbreak.
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Wednesday
Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday from northeast
Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley, with a threat of hail,
damaging wind, and a couple of tornadoes.
A deep upper-level trough is forecast to amplify and dig
southeastward on Wednesday, moving from the Great Basin towards the
Southern Rockies by Thursday morning. As this occurs, a surface low
is forecast to begin deepening in the lee of the south of Rockies by
late in the period. A broad region of moderate to strong
southwesterly midlevel flow is expected downstream of this deep
upper trough, with a low-amplitude shortwave forecast to move across
the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions through the day/evening, in
conjunction with a weak surface low and cold front. Low-level
southerly flow will support continued moisture return from
central/east TX eastward into parts of the lower MS Valley and
Southeast.
…Northeast TX into the lower MS Valley and TN Valley regions…
The details remain uncertain, but one or more rounds of convection
appear possible Wednesday into Wednesday night from northeast TX
into the lower MS Valley and TN Valley, within a conditionally
favorable severe-thunderstorm environment.
Increasing low-level moisture, beneath relatively steep midlevel
lapse rates will support the potential for thunderstorm development
along the northern periphery of the deeper moisture plume from
northeast TX into parts of AR/northern LA and potentially extending
into the Mid-South vicinity. Initially, elevated storms will be
possible during the morning, with an increasing potential for
surface-based convection by afternoon/evening.
Thursday
..THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
NORTH/EAST TEXAS…SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA…CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS…CENTRAL/NORTHERN LOUISIANA…MISSISSIPPI…AND FAR
SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE…
A regional severe-thunderstorm outbreak appears possible across
parts of the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex and ArkLaMiss
regions, with tornadoes, damaging wind, and hail all possible.
A deep mid/upper-level trough is forecast to become negatively
tilted as it traverses the southern Plains on Thursday. A surface
low is expected to steadily deepen somewhere near the Red River
during the day, with more rapid deepening expected Thursday night as
the cyclone moves northeastward toward the Ozarks. Seasonably rich
low-level moisture will be in place across the warm sector of the
developing cyclone through the period.
…Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex/ArkLaMiss region and parts of
the Southeast…
A regional severe thunderstorm outbreak still appears possible from
the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex/ArkLaMiss regions Thursday
into Thursday night. All severe hazards will be possible, including
the potential for widespread damaging winds and strong tornadoes,
though uncertainty remains regarding the timing and evolution of
intense thunderstorm development Thursday afternoon/evening.
Relatively steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate buoyancy
across the moist warm sector, while deep-layer shear will steadily
increase through the day as an 80-100 kt midlevel jet approaches from
the west. The coverage and timing of convection remain somewhat
uncertain, with stronger large-scale ascent expected to remain west
of the warm sector for much of the day. Discrete supercell
development will be possible near the ArkLaTex vicinity by late
afternoon into the evening, as a low-level jet becomes increasingly
intense near/after 00Z. Any sustained supercells would pose a strong
tornado risk as low-level shear increases with time, along with the
potential for hail. More widespread development is expected along
the surging cold front across parts of north/central TX by evening.
The frontal convection will spread quickly eastward, posing a threat
of potentially widespread damaging wind and a continued tornado
threat.
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