Here is a run through the frontlines for the Ukraine War.
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0:00 Start
0:10 Kupiansk-Kreminna
7:55 Bakhmut
14:00 Adiivka/Marinka
26:05 South Donetsk/ Zap Oblast
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29:01 The Russian push in the North can also offer an opportunity for Ukraine. They are holding a lot of offensive power in reserve and Russia has opened up a salient in an area with less robust defensive infrastructure. Strategically, driving to the Azov Sea is the most beneficial cutting off a large Russian force. Taking Kreminna and/or Svatove would make it difficult for Russian in the east and would probably be enough to reduce Allies hand wringing. If Russian lines started collapse in the east it could for Russia to weaken the southern defenses. Russia has further to travel and to move troops from the south to the east and their logistics and command-control remain highly suspect to say the least. The US is currently involved with training three battalions and NATO allies are providing additional training is happening without US involvement. So one could see a big left hook followed by an upper cut.
A few thoughts put together, maybe they make sense, maybe they don't
– Russian is dug in. The frontline is not too long, they have sufficient human capital to support their war efforts
– Industrial capacity on the Russian side is sufficient and remains unattacked as Ukraine cannot hit most of Russia. They might miss components for more advanced materials, but China will supply what they need easily. However, WW II was not won thanks to the most advanced tank, rather because Russia they had simpler nimble tanks, quick to train (as opposed to German tanks which had complex electronics and its was lengthy and difficult to train people). So Russia's non Armata tanks while older, are easy to produce, not too difficult to train people on (and they have virtually unlimited personnel). For Artillery systems, Russia should have no issue replacing low to mid quality systems nor producing ammunition.
– The Eastern flank of Luhansk and upper Donestsk is difficult for Ukraine to attack on because Russia can easily supply it as it links up with its land. Its air power is most useful there. On the south, if Ukraine doesnt manage to break those defenses I see limited opportunity to take land anywhere else. In Bakhmut I am seeing what I saw with Russia – very slow progress at a material cost. Remember, 1 human loss for Ukraine has far more value than a human loss for Russia. I do not know to what proportion, but that is a fact – however sad it is. So there is a cost for Ukraine to go back to the Q4 2022 Bakhmut borders whereby it will have lost thousands of humans lives that matter materially to the war effort and the Ukrainian economy. Russia's losses don't have the same weight.
So my hope is that Ukraine manages to break somehwere in the south "Soledar" style – by surprise, with Russians unable to plug the gap quick enough. I do not think the Eastern front matters in any way in what is a war of attrition for both sides (especially for Russia, but again the cost of a loss is asymmetric…) as it will be difficult for Ukraine to push there.
Slava Ukraine, I really really hope they break through somewhere in the South. In those defensive lines, the whole line falls apart if its broken.
On a separate note, Jonathan would it be possible to talk in one of your Other news videos about the cost to Russia to send these cruise missiles every night? Those require advanced specs and are expensive. Onxy is over USD 1m, Kinzhal is USD 10m. The bill is adding up quickly….. also would you be able to cover the "cost of war mobilisaiton"? I wonder what it costs to have 300k soliders mobilised and supplied for an economy that small. That is probably the pain point for Russia. Ukraine's war can be supported by allies, but no one is going to finance Russia's war other than taxpayers. Thanks for your videos! Best in class, informative, quite impartial as well
Thanks for the update Jonathan, so much going on in the south – in the NE, we’re learning what land a large invading force can quickly capture if the ground isn’t littered with mines aren’t we? Hopefully more Ukrainian resources will stunt the advance. Cheers & Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦 🇬🇧
Some perspective, please: The "serious land grab" by the Russians is 10 km2, per APerpetua, the same as Lobkove and Piatykhatky combined.
As far as Suriyakmapps, which seems to be wrong more often than not, I'll believe it when I see it.(ie Visual confirmation, please.)
I agree with Zelensky that things will gain pace. When they are ready to deploy mass amounts of their forces, we will witness what happened in Kherson, a lot of advances will happen in the south, they are destroying logistics right now. I wouldn't worry about Russian advances in the Luhansk area very much, they will use cluster ammunitions there like in Bakhmut to push the Russians back.
I'm not too concerned about Russian gains in the north. Sending Ukrainian reserves there is exactly what the Russians want. If the Russian lines are broken in the South then some gains in the north will be unimportant. I'm unsure that the Russians have enough manpower and equipment to really exploit a breakthrough. They would have done it already, if they could.
If I ever need an apologist you'll be on the top of my list
In the areas taken in the north can you not mine it with AP mines fired in and then push them back into the mines?
"The AFU has reportedly taken control over a large part of height 197 south of Klishchiivka. The last height and defensive stronghold for the Russians near the settlement. When fully controlled, Klishchiivka is cut off from Andriivka. Andriivka will be untennable getting attacked from both the north and west."
Noelreportts
Thanks!
Appreciate your balanced and well sourced analysis.
Russian🇷🇺K.I.A💀count of their dead😵Army soldiers 😵! 242,507 ! Satins👹Z Army are but sacrificial 🐑sheep being feed to the meat grinder of Ukraine 🇺🇦 ! Orc’s🐲to the slodder of Putins🥸War !
I recall someone saying Suriyak maps info was un-reliable during the Ukrainian offensive but started using them during the Russians as they were fairly accurate and put out info before the UKR side.
Now that UKR is back on the offensive you still report Suriyak as you did before even though they've been proven to be wrong and later "walked back" their mappings. Maybe time to take Suriyaks mapping with a grain of salt unless video evidence is provided.
Still looking for attacks across the dry lake bed
Just asking for someone with more knowledge than myself to answer. Surely the Russians have to open up their own minefields to let their assaulting troops through, they are obviously pressing in the north. So whats to stop the Ukrainian Army letting the Russians make some progress then hit them with a big attack of their own and go straight through the openings in the Russian minefields. The only obvious problem I foresee with that is the lack of Ukrainian air cover.
The Poles will soon invade western Ukraine and grab Galicia. Tell us about the Neo N Asov. Bakmud a success for the Ukraines??.
Tell us about the cluster munitions' being used by Ukraine. Banned in over 103 countries.
Over 7000 civilians have been killed in Donetz city by Ukrainian shells since 2014. Tell us about this.
I'm not so sure about the PULS systems being in Ukraine.
Bit over optimistic 😉
Keep the updates coming…..you d'man!
Baghdad Bob
Boring, stammering, but comprehensive and useful !
Your part Animal. Your gonna need it. Survival training. YOUR a POW. Weak. Or your opponent is considerable Bigger. And they are eyeing you. Looking for a defiant look back. The Bully….will try to make examples. This primal combat. Straight up Neanderthal combat. Single Bully or Guard on a child or the weaker scared woman or man weak. Remember! Distraction and Strike. How? Fear is your first Enemy. Any Bully even the Undertaker himself. Isn't immune to a kick in the nuts. DON'T do it from the front. Men have an instinct for that. Distraction! You must look weak .. Fear. Tell him. Point to the Horizon. Say"LOOK….the Future.". Whatever you have to do ….to get him to around. THEN! KICK! Full extension! Your kicking the game winning field goal. Send them to the MOON! Instantly….you will Note. INSTANTLY! A fetal position….muscle spasms…and maybe abit of urine. Repeat! I want three stomps! That screaming…STOMP that throat! Your choice. Depends. Want him ALIVE? Fine. YOUR in Control NOW! Don't let him up ..this ain't best two of three. Stomp them nuts into red raspberry jelly! Remind him. Keep it up! I'll stomp your knee cap! Take your mind off your nuts! NOT TO WORRY! It's all non lethal. Your gonna find. PAL! But you ain't going anywhere…..but on a stretcher. PAL. Fear is your friend….We protect the innocent. Defend our own. I'll chew your face off…….if you don't back off! I see….a throat….and two knee caps. You can protect one….maybe two. Not all three. I will throw my whole body at you. Quite unstoppable. And……when you least expect it. Your part Animal…your gonna need it. USAF SERE instructor class of 1984. Return with Honor! You know what to do! Fear….is your first Enemy. Distraction and Strike. Have it fully thought out. You are ahead of them. ALWAYS!
Taiwan is sending its Hawk Systems to the US, then to Ukraine — annoying week for Ukraine.
That's whole little north east section is nothing burger..
DeepStateMapps shows a 5.5 km2 AFU advance towards Andriivka. Now only 550 meters from the outskirts of the town.
In the Northeast area, it seems to me that Ukraine has quite a ways it can step back, if necessary. Much like in Bakhmut, it's good to make Russia suffer for any ground it gains, but Ukrainian lives can be saved by backing up to better positions.
Because of last summer's huge thunder-run retaking of Kharkiv when Ukraine was able to take and still holds some major ground there, maybe they have plenty of space into which they can back up? Perhaps even all the way back over the Oskill Reservoir?
I hope if Ukraine decides to take this tack (in order to continue full operations elsewhere), we watchers and supporters of Ukraine will not commence our panicking at least until then!
AFU commanders are in a panic on the Northern flank. They weren't expecting this. They'll have to pull forces from the Southern flank but they already committed their strategic reserve on the weekend. They were hoping to make a break through but the attack failed and many vehicles damaged. They took a lot of casualties this weekend.
Ukraine should negotiate, talk big but weak.
BBC – “Russian drones have attacked Ukrainian ports on the River Danube, destroying grain storage infrastructure, local officials say.
The facilities are just across the river from Nato-member Romania.
The Danube is a key export route for Kyiv since Russia pulled out of a deal allowing Ukraine to ship wheat, corn and other products via the Black Sea.
A grain depot was also destroyed in the Black Sea port city of Odesa, which has come under almost nightly attack.
Officials say more than 60,000 tonnes of grain have been destroyed in the past week.
Global markets have seen the price of grain rise by 8% within a day of Russia's pullout from the grain deal, on 17 July.
The collapse of the deal also means that Russia has resumed targeting of port locations in Ukraine which had been suspended during the deal.
I am afraid that Russia is out to destroy Ukraine’s the one export commodity they have left – Grain, Corn, Sunflower Oil and Rap-Seed.
They want to force the US to reconnect the Russian Agricultural Bank to SWIFT and get insurers to cover the cargo and shipping. This has to be done by the US as they control the Swift network in Geneva.
While there is no sanctions against Agricultural Products from Russia, the transportation of these Items is a problem with no means of payment.
In addition, Ukraine destroyed the Russian Ammonia Pipe line Terminal in Odessa last year and this has not been operational for a long time.
All gloves are off now and it will come down to who can survive the next year.
If Ukraine chose the path of returning the Gift of Crimea to Russia and incorporating the Donbas Republics as Self Governing region into Ukraine like Catalunya is in the Kingdom of Spain, then they could have been well on their way to EU Membership.
They would have saved their nation from destruction.
But the Schoolboys Zelensky and Kubela dont know how to compromise.
So here we are!
The Southern Offensive along the Dnipro is all nonsense.
what is syria lines in the luhansk oblast
Ukraine reluctant to mine their own land? Not surprising, prefer them mining Russia. Glory to Ukraine 🇺🇦
When you start watching more geolocated videos you will have a much better and accurate map! Until then it is just ukranian maps which couldn't aknowledge the fall of Bakhmut for at least 3 days after…
je ne comprend rien aux couleurs des lignes de fronts !
c'est quoi le blanc, le bleu, le rouge ?
I like the balanced reporting. I will like your videos but I will not pay you any other liking them and subscribing to your channel.
Jonathan, the yellow, red and blue lines on the map must be taken in combination as the actual fuzzy area that is actually being contended. We think that tends to define it. As the combination of t he three taken as a grey area of immense uncertainty, baseless optimism, and hopeful pessimism included. Nothing seems really correct or certain in between those lines as to the area they collectively define. That can be proven by reference to various video, surveillance, clips being aired by various sources. That is the mash up where the two are butting heads in some way or other. Nothing is decided there, until it is decided that the coloured lines are moved forward or backward to somewhere else. Our impression is that all three lines, three colours, are somewhat conservative and not really fully indicative of what is happening. Many of the guns, as well as the rockets and bombs, being utilized stretch that area somewhat further than those coloured lines. They have more reach than that, and so the battle can extend further than the maximum extent of the areas defined by the various lines as being contested. So you have, in effect, two shades of grey. The deep grey where infantry and armour are in motion against each other, and the lighter grey where the two sides have artillery, rocketry and air support reach. That is a much wider area in fact. Of course that has to be considered, fully and seriously, because that is what becomes decisive. Those coloured lines tend to ignore that and in that sense they are all a sort of propaganda, and missing the real point. That means that if you were to remap the Line of Contact as to those two shades of grey, you would have a more realistic impression of what is really going on. Actually I wish someone would do that. It would be quite informative. I can only visualize it very roughly in my mind and sometimes lacking the scale of t he map, which makes it more difficult. The Russian reporting typically lacks the scale and that really makes it tough to visualize what is happening.
Ukraine absolutely MUST take Andriivka if they really hope to hold Klishiivka. An absolute MUST. Otherwise the Ukraine forces will be essentially "shot in the back".
Ukraine would do better in its persistent desire to approach Donetsk if they were to relax their efforts and turn to more intelligent strikes against key Russian sites and assets in the Donetsk area. There is far too little evident action in that same regard. There is no point beating their heads against the Donetsk wall, so endlessly. They need to find out where the Russian supply, logistics, command and high value assets are in the Donetsk area and really pick them out and eliminate them. Until they do that they are bashing their own heads against a brick wall.
We hope that Ukraine has located, targeted and destroyed key Russian assets in the area of Robotyne. We doubt it, but we continue to hope. It is looking like far too much of a conventional, very historical, infantry circus and that will always cost lives and armour in terms of putting on that show.
Interesting about the news concerning the Kherson oblast, on the Russian side of the Dnipro River. Of course everything there is absolutely irrelevant and worthless if and when the cut is spearheaded through Tokmak and Melitopol. When that is effected Russia loses everything that they have left in Kherson. So, of course, they are sending their worst there. They know that there is an actual chance that they could lose what they have there. IF Ukraine succeeds in cutting across and isolating the Russian forces in Kherson. We can talk about that because the Russians have long known about that risk and it was too obvious from the start. Why Surovikin has developed his line to make that particularly difficult. Difficult is not impossible.
how do you know the Ukrainians haven't put in massive minefields in Karazynivka area. Sources?
I think the BOTS are doing thier job by BS about size of gains but it is a gain but just not as big.