Hosts:
Andrew (@andrewperpetua)
Charles (@Charlesrei1)
ROBOTYNE! Breach!
NOVOPROKOPIVKA! BREACH!
Timestamps
0:00:00 – Start
1:37 Andrew on Ukrainian gov’t corruption & in general abt war
7:00 Robotyne
23:56 Charles & Andrew talk Russian combat power
39:02 War footage N of Bakhmut- MICLIC
45:49 Reported AFU attacks around Dorozhnianka
52:06 On the Russian buldge W of Staromaiorske
57:32 Urozhaine
1:08:08 Russian drone video of settlement N of Marinka
1:14:28 What is goal of Ukrainian counteroffensive?
1:27:17 Klischiivka
1:35:16 AFU shells Russians in Kremmina
1:35:34 Kupiansk
1:36:02 Russian failed attack on Novoiehorivka
1:40:29 About Wagner
source
I’ve heard that Russia is experiencing significantly more casualties than Ukraine. Is there any evidence that this is not true?
And why hasn’t Ukraine mobilized a lot more should that they’ve been training since the war started. It seems to me that everyone in Ukraine of military age should have some military training by now and should be placed in reserve in case there’s suddenly a massive breakthrough like the Kharkiv breakthrough. They could then immediately mobilize everyone they’ve provided with enough training to occupy and defend the newly acquired territory so that the most experienced special forces won’t have to stop advancing.
Merci Andrew &co
Perpetua sounds even more like Doglas Mac Gregor talking down the ukrainean forces. I try to look at the Oryx numbers, and given the hard working russian propganda I think they should be quite updated regarding video-recorded ukrainean material losses. Still the losses are 2:1 in favor of Ukraina since the offensive started. And the ukraineans are doing well behind the frontlines taking out logistics. I'm tired of this Scott Ritter and Mac Gregor stuff. Just the same..
Attacking near Vuhledar always seemed to me by far the better option
I can't believe any Wagner will overwinter in that Belarus tent camp
Lots of interesting stuff, but man, that negativity sometimes is through the roof.
Way too much concentration on the trees of tactical stuff, instead of the forrest of the strategic picture.
It's like looking at DDay plus 60 days and saying 'we are stuck in the bockage, with huge losses, things are horrible'
Reality is: Russian logistics and Arti are getting decimated across the south. Sooner or later, they will break.
Ukr can't sustain these losses? Bah, Humbug. RUS is losing much more equipment, and Ukr gets to upgrade with better stuff.
Re pop, France, with a similar pop, lost 1,5 million soldiers in WW1.
Ukr has a much bigger part of the female population available for production and the army than 1914s France, and lots of women and kids supported by a European economies as refuges.
1:37 Andrew on Ukrainian gov't corruption & in general abt war
7:00 Robotyne
23:56 Charles & Andrew talk Russian combat power
39:02 War footage N of Bakhmut- MICLIC
45:49 Reported AFU attacks around Dorozhnianka
52:06 On the Russian buldge W of Staromaiorske
57:32 Urozhaine
1:08:08 Russian drone video of settlement N of Marinka
1:14:28 What is goal of Ukrainian counteroffensive?
1:27:17 Klischiivka
1:35:16 AFU shells Russians in Kremmina
1:35:34 Kupiansk
1:36:02 Russian failed attack on Novoiehorivka
1:40:29 About Wagner
drop a waterpipe across that river
Your day-to-day step through on Robotyne, which Tazer conveniently time-stamped below, was super crisp, useful, informative, and well narrated. I've seen a dozen of your videos and know how to navigate through them to find the battle fronts I'm interested in, but your videos are long, and you deserve a lot more traffic for the work you put in than you get currently. I think you could clip out and tweet 3 min summaries like you just did for Robotyne to get circulation. And structure your full length by summary day-by-day for each region of interest followed by the more speculative and analytical section in which you raise questions about likely forward progress and developments.
For those of us keen on the maps and videos we see on telegram, youtube, and twitter, the consolidation and mapping you do is truly helpful. Really think if you clipped out an overview for each frontline engagement (akin to how Chuck Pfarrar does his maps) and shared them on socials as short videos you'd help a lot of others out who haven't found you yet.
Thanks for pulling all this together, seriously!
I don't get it. How do you know what they are losing.
This is a classic, I can run this war better out of my basement, granny's is going to carry me cokes.
Thanks for the update, keep up the great work!
Youve just become the number one doomer… good work Andrew
Not to discredit u but how are u coming to the conclusion of 25 percent on ukrainian casualties? I know ur just estimating but what are u basing ur estimates on how do we know that ukraine is taking such casualties?
Your advantage, knowledgeable guests adding to the conversation, great stuff, from England
Thanks guys
About losses. – define heavy losses.. Really doubt 25% losses, because that would mean brigade that suffered 25% is no longer capable advancing, as it would mean they lost almost all their mechanized infantry, yet, 47th is still fighting, it was not withdrawn from contact line (Bradleys are theirs)..
The struggle between Fingon and Morgoth
One of the best Information video agin thank you all ❤❤❤ from Denmark
The disparate assaults to help each other; when Russia pulls reserves to strengthen any position, those reserves are no longer available to the others; eventually they will thin out in other positions to strengthen one or two.
Hi Andrew.
You seem to be quite pessimistic about most of the situation which is very off-putting for me personally.
Not because I don't want to hear negative information, I just have a hard time believing words & opinions of someone else & taking it at face value as I want to make up my own mind and understand what's going on, rationally. The casualty & loss figures, the counter offensive discussion specifically.
I respectfully disagree with your take on these subjects, the casualty speculation & how u see the counteroffensive + it's goals.
I have seen the exact opposite.
In my opinion, you do not explain your poisition in-depth and with any real substance, you don't elaborate or bring receipts to why you view the battlefield so negatively right now and what you base it off of except very common & ordinary problems of war that will always be there to some degree.
Feels like you're looking at lines on the map in that regard and taking everything very linearly. There's a defensive line there, a fortification there. If they advanced this much in that much time, then here they'll advance the same distance in the same amount of time. War is fluid & anything but linear. It's dynamic.
You say Ukraine is suffering HUGE casualties, what about ruzzians?
U just state this as a given & that claim did feel very hollow to me. Like it was just thrown in there as fact & completely taken for granted.
Why is that? How do you know their losses to the percentage? Do you have access to the casuality figures of Ukraine? What're the casualties specifically in numbers that they're taking & at what places, to what? How do u know the combat capability of them?
How do you know what their plans are? What they are doing & how much they are succeeding? What the situation on the frontlines actually is?
Ukrainians have extremely smart people – constantly developing and adjusting, adapting strategies & plans. They are not stupid as you imply & slag them off to be. There's a reason they have attacked & continue to attack here that will become evident when this is all said & done. Whatever choices they make are based on rock solid intelligence that neither you or I or anyone besides the high-command knows or has access to.
I have seen the opposite of what you have. Of course Ukraine is suffering casualties & that's bad but.. That's expected & self evident. It's a war and they're on the offensive. Taking way fewer casualties than an attacker should take.
That's also exactly why they slowed down from the first week taking it very methodically & slowly ever since, changing their tactics. Being risk averse, careful.
To me, they've adapted very well & they know what they are doing. Why claim otherwise without any substance? Why slag off their methods when u don't know the full picture?
The capacity of the ruzzians is degrading a lot in manpower, equipment, logistics.
Ukraine's logistics is intact & also way better than uzian logistics. ruzzia focuses on civilians and terror attacks more than military targets which is so out of date & proven so, since WW2.
Ukraine prefers smaller attacks, using less equipment. They have more advanced, flexible & greater capabilities, advantages that come with the advanced equipment, properly maintained as well. They are being very careful, valuing lives unlike the orcs. Western equipment has very good survivability too.
Using range: artillery & long range artillery like HIMARS & missiles like Storm Shadow.
Artillery is the main killer and Ukraine's is more advanced, outnumbering, outgunning & outranging the ruzzians. The opposite of how it was before.
They use artillery, tanks, cluster ammunition, JDAMS, drones to absolutely shred the ruzzians in their dug-outs & fortified positions. They can't stop it or answer besides air strikes that seem to be highly inaccurate as we have seen time again. They can't hit the broad side of a barn.
There are probably successful airstrikes but to what degree? Are they being careful, firing indirectly? We mostly just see only holes on the ground, bigger than artillery.
We know usually how ruzzian equipment is. Highly inaccurate or straight up doesn't work. Throwback to the Belgorod incursion where a plane was desperately trying to hit and missing each time it's payload. Even recently, when they were trying to take out a boat. Missing every volley.
In any case, the ruzzians are absolutely suffering there with precision strikes on equipment, manpower & logistics – everything they really desperately need & can't replace in most regards. They're downgrading their capabilities. Ukraine is upgrading them.
Ukrainian medical ability is also way better than the orcs. This roughly translates to the ratio between wounded:KIA. Ukrainians also have direct infrastructure of medical emergency capability in place that isn't even at peak capacity, far from it. They have a system, it's not perfect but what do the ruzzians have?
UA suffer way less casualties all over in any way u look at it. The ratios are certainly in favour of Ukrainians & to a substantial degree.
Another point, the more the units are in combat, the more veterancy they get. Offensive capability, which is far in a ways the most important because if you know how to attack, you will know how to defend too. They will have more cohesion, take less- & inflict more casualties and be all the more efficient killing machines. It's like real-time practical training with the harshest of conditions.
They also have very good intelligence, recon, data in general that they're using all the time & adapting to it.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine get more capabilities, become more efficient & better at warfare all the time. The fewer casualties they will take as well as ruzzia downgrades & loses it's good troops, equipment and Ukraine replaces it's old Soviet ones.
It seems to me Ukraine knows how to defend their country as they have demonstrated many times. Who're we to doubt that? I trust the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Why don't you? You are no commander or a military guy, neither am I and yet you seem to have this perfect idea of what to do in situations like this. I highly doubt looking at maps and drone videos, satellite images makes you a master strategist.
It's like a force multiplier, ever-increasing in Ukraine's favour.
The combat efficiency becomes more equal across the board meaning more cohesion, complex maneuvers & plans they can execute.
And there's much more..
It's a war. By no means is everything perfect & it will never be that way, there will always be needs & problems no matter what. That's not anything substantial to justify your position.
Why don't u talk about how sustainable this kind of defense is for uzians? They keep defending to the last man with no meter back mentality & losing their best. They use lesser defensive positions, make bad choices often & refuse to hold a flexible defense. They attack when they should be defending. They're just sucking it up, the massive casualties, elite dessantniks.
The losses in equipment, logistics, manpower they are suffering are quite staggering.
They are trying their hardest with their elite troops and best equipment to hold back the Ukrainian tide. It'll smash through eventually.
No matter how many anonymous sources some publication pulls out their behind or how many "geniuses" who also predicted Kyiv would fall in 3 days and Ukraine in a matter of weeks state otherwise. BS. Garbage.
There's no timetable for Ukraine. That's what the ruzzians want us to think & try so hard to plant these seeds of doubt, how the West will stop supporting UA & get tired. Absolute BS.
After this offensive there will be another & perhaps another after that, until all of Ukraine is liberated. Then we will know the exact plans and extent of each and every engagement and it's outcomes. pt 1/2
Is the goal to take Tokmak because it is main hub where train tracks goes to melitopol, and without Tokmak russians can't provide for the regions close to Melitopol fast?
I think Andrew is being pretty pessimistic in his assessment today. I would strongly doubt "25% casualties"; as one example, Marcus from the 47th Mechanised Brigade stated 1% after the first month of the counter-offensive. The reality will be somewhere in between, but bearing in mind the 47th is still at the front, despite there being several other brigades in reserve, I really doubt the higher figure.
People also seem to advocate for the Vuhledar sector as a better line of attack: I can see the point, but there the Russians have a major staging area and supply point to the left flank – the city of Donetsk. It's also about 100km closer to Russian airbases in Rostov-on-Don. When Crimea is the obvious strategic goal, and bearing in mind concerns about Western commitment, there is really only one route to take, and is of course why Russia fortified it the heaviest; they know it's strategically their weakest point.
Andrew, your maps are well researched, but you have a glass 9/10ths empty approach. On other channels, they call you "doom and gloom". Ukraine is in a war with an equal in size and technology and leads in training, western military equipment, and morale.
They are led by a brilliant, versatile commander who saw the failure of antique NATO operational methods based on air supremacy and immediately adjusted, and we are seeing the steady progress as a result. The progress is measured in the destruction of the Russian army, but we will soon see if they can cut the land link to Western Kherson and Crimea.
They have developed new air and sea drones, allowing them to regain air and Black Sea superiority. New artillery is being produced in country as are new long-range missiles, drones, and sabotage teams.
If you listen to ignorant Western pundits, you will repeat ignorance. Your own eyes show you the destruction of the Russian army and the gradual change in lines. Rely on them instead. Just remember, it was not the Ukrainians that said "the Russians will never invade us", it was a retired broken down American general named James "Spider" Marks.
Despite the negative comments here, you are doing a great job, Andrew. Your neutral standpoint is absolutely a breath of fresh air after all the propaganda that has been stuffed down our throats. Some have swallowed it all and are now regurgitating the rubbish. Keep up the good work!
Total combat losses of the enemy from 24.02.22 to 27.08.23 oríêntovno stacked / The total combat losses of the enemies from 24.02.22. to 27.08.23 were approximately:
personnel / personnel 550 close / about 260820 (+550) persons,
tanks / tanks / 4396 (+6) from,
combat armored vehicles / APV 55 8554 (+15) from,
artillery systems – 5403 (+24) from,
RSZV / MLRS – 728 (+2) from,
tools PPO / Anti-aircraft warfare systems syst 498 (+1) from,
planes / aircraft – 315 (+0) from,
Helicopters / helicopters-316 (+0) from,
UAV operational-tactical level – 4378 (+11),
winged rockets / cruise missiles 0 1411 (+0),
ships / boats / warships / boats ко 18 (+0) from,
Automobíl ніnoí̈ equipment and avocistern / vehicles and fuel tanks-7854 (+31) from,
special equipment 8 808 (+4).
Data are being updated.
Beat the occupant! Together, we will win! Our strength is in the truth! / Strike the occupier! Let's win together! Our strength is in the truth!
Being at a distance of 15 km from important locations, how is that a victory? They have been on the edge of Donetsk city for 8 years and what did that mean, nothing at the end.
Without close air support and air dominance in general, at least local, they cannot make a breakthrough to the Sea of Azov. That's why we see almost 3 months of fighting for each next row of trees without any deviation in approach because they have no other options.
Andrew could you. Give us a quickie 25 min frontline update on off days.
Action picking up and lots of new fronts…
Maybe some predictions…..
I think Verbove area gets close to a nice fire control
Maybe poholy
Maybe some predictions…..
I think Verbove area gets close to a nice fire control
To roll the trenches north and south.
Russian troops hungry in Tokmok
And taking food from locals
Taking Tokmok and maybe Poholy by winter will be a victory
Then come the F 16s for spring.
Is there as much corruption in the Ukrainian government as there is in the Biden government?
We need you Andrew.
best maps bud…proper job.