Legacy auto companies are quickly running out of excuses, and might be headed for ruin. What strategies might they employ that Sears made famous. Rene from FallacyAlarm.com is back with us, and he is a bull who can provide even more reasons for being long term invested in Tesla. This is not investment advice.. He brings a technical deep dive into historical margins and what that implies for the future. He also helps us see correlations with options trading that can help us understand some of Tesla stock moves.
Visit Rene’s website at FallacyAlarm.com and sign up for his amazing newsletter.
Also follow Rene on Twitter @FallacyAlarm
We broke major news over the last two days. You should take a look at these three videos if you haven’t already done so.
Larry Goldberg – https://youtu.be/uSz-BnFlrk8
Brian Wang – https://youtu.be/_azXXqH5f5k
Brian White – https://youtu.be/mBBGTyJYTus
My Patreon with Free 7 day trial membership. Now with Unique Content. Patreon/RandyKirk
Get Your Copy of the Elon Musk Mission – Hard back, paperback, audio, Kindle – https://bit.ly/3YjDfsg
Randy on Twitter @RandyWKirk1
Upcoming episodes. Make sure you hit notification:
Friday Afternoon – Good News Friday with Larry Goldberg. Must See
https://youtu.be/uSz-BnFlrk8
Saturday Morning – Brian Wang Reveals a Completely New Way to See Tesla Must See https://youtu.be/_azXXqH5f5k
Saturday Midday – Brian White discussing production for Q3 and Q4 and New Berlin Plan
Saturday Afternoon – Tesla News
Sunday Morning – Rene breaks Huge News – Don’t miss this
Sunday Midday – Recap of the Massive New We Broke this weekend.
Sunday Afternoon – “Monday Morning Financial Week Ahead
Monday Morning – After the Bell
Monday Midday – My earnings predictions for Q3 and Q4
Monday Afternoon –
Tuesday Morning – After the Bell
Tuesday Midday – Brian Wang follow up
Tuesday Afternoon – Rene talks about the Bull Market and Risk appetite
Wednesday Morning – After the Bell
Wednesday Midday –
Wednesday Afternoon – Midweek hot takes
Thursday Morning – After the Bell
Thursday Midday –
Thursday Afternoon
We have two goals on this channel. Provide useful information about Elon Musk and his related businesses and help small businesses increase sales and profits through improved methods of running the enterprise.
I have written 10 books about small business, several of shich are currently available on Amazon, including two Amazon Best Sellers about Elon Musk.
source
How will Tesla get enough nickel to run the gambit on the trucking industry? Isn't there a huge nickel bottle neck.
I think it will be talked about more, after the cybertruck is released..
"'Market Makers"' Market manipulators more accurate
What would be the odds it is Volvo talking to Elon about FSD? They seem like a company that just quietly keeps getting the job done. They will want or need something like FSD soon enough, why not explore options now?
Funny, I also bought a dodge caravan for my work a few years ago because it was cheap, actually it’s worth more today than what i paid for(insane!). And yes, my next one for this job will be a Tesla no matter what.
Your guest needs a better microphone. I had to fast forward through his portions of the video.
Maybe Kia/Hyundai as the OEM interested in licensing FSD.
I could not understand most of what Rene is saying maybe due to his accent but I can understand Randy very well
Ever flip something?
You buy something, fix it up, and sell it, hopefully for a profit.
That's how I look at individual stocks – I'm a flipper, not an owner.
My wife loves to watch home flipping shows – folks buying, fixing, and flipping a home.
She always knows when a "flipper" is in trouble when they don't do something based on profit
but because they love something – that's always a recipe for losing money.
TSLA, to me, is a flipper – I own a Tesla Model Y and flip this stock mainly to teach our grandkids how
to make money. I have no loyalty to TSLA, so I'm looking for the stock to go down, and I buy it,
and as the stock goes up, I sell it.
I have discovered that the less I know and care about a stock, the more I focus on making money.
Luckily Elon is a lightning rod for bad news and good news – you need both to flip a stock.
Anyway, for whatever reason, TSLA stock owners want to sell me their stock at a discount and who am I
not to accept their generous offer. And, of course, I'm happy to return the favor to them…
Flip, baby flip….
I think we'll see more diversification in cell technology.
Silicon and other lower density types will (should) take over storage.
Interim tech such as variations of LFP (LiMFePO4 ?) Will take smaller storage and public transport, maybe some trucking.
High energy will be refreshed for the applications where it's essential.
We may even find some of the current high energy stock being recycled and used as raw material for more mechanically / chemically efficient cell designs(?)
.
We know from JB Straubel that these cells can be recycled at below 20% the cost of newly mined material.
.
Let's speculate that there's a newer chemistry such as MP3 or similar that doesn't use the "expensive" existing "Nickel based" cell materials but doesn't have the energy density.
If that "MP3" cell could use the 4680 format (fast and cheap when ramped) and the materials are freely and cheaply available, but there's still a use for higher density nickel cells.
If it's cheaper to "mine" Nickel components from Nickel cells used in storage, than from a literal "mine", you could make 4680 "MP3" cells, build storage, "retire" the Nickel packs (reusing everything but the cells) and use those cells as raw material for nickel based 4680 cells for high energy applications.
I just used Rene's numbers to compare ASP and COGS. What I found is that Tesla is doing a very good job of holding the percent difference over time. The exception was Q4 2021 and Q1 2022 which, IIRC, was when Tesla increased the price of the Y due to very long wait times. That increased the difference.
I enjoyed this video very much
Great guest. I wish his mic was better.
Tesla margins are headed up? According to which quarterly statment? I will copy & paste the latest summary for Teslas second quarterly result here for margins: " For the second time this year, Tesla’s gross margins decreased to 18.2%, down from 25% in Q2 2022 and down from 19.3% last quarter. Also Tesla’s operating margin dropped slightly from 11.4% in Q1 to 9.6% in Q2."
Great guest