How close is Tesla FSD to solving autonomous driving? How close is the competition? What are the challenges?
Tesla is planning to have 100 Exa-Flops of compute power to train FSD by end of next year. https://twitter.com/heydave7/status/1673307285873983488
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Great video and agree FSD is getting ready soon for the biggest hurdle being Liability in the USA. Fear it will make FSD crazy expensive as medical care as the liability insurance will drive cost up. Therefore my prediction is the rollout outside the USA will go much faster.
Just crazy as there is enough proof today already that the average driver, with 2 eyes only, can never beat an FSD system, alike there is no ches player anymore who can beat a computer .
How long can liability legislation, supported by many law firms just facilitate over 40k fatal casualties annually will be the nut to crack.
Enjoy your trip.
No one is gonna buy FSD at 15k. Not worth the money.
The world will be satisfied with FSD reaching rate of 10X safer than ave. human driver saving tens of thousands of lives yearly. FSD does not be perfect as humans are not perfect either . Robotaxi could start when tesla reached the 10X by the end of 2025 IMO.
Dave thank you always for making great content!
For something it was really hard to pay attention to you cause it really sounds like you’re reading to us. Not sure if you changed your setup.
Appreciate your content! Hope you & family are well.
Raise the volume, please.
Thanks Dave
"just revealed" like 2 weeks ago lol
Good to have you back, Dave!
Love your analogy, “Glacier under water, ready to pop its head out of water@ for FSD’s eventual success!
Enjoy your travels & be safe!
I agree and am working my ass off to stack as many shares of Tesla for the future as I can because I think the same thing.
Thank you!
People tend to have an expectation that computers will always make "perfect" decisions too, and rely heavily on them doing what they say they will do. The important thing with FSD in my opinion will be when it, in large sample sizes and volumes, exceeds human reliability/accident rates.
Dojo is a sleeping giant that will place TSLA ahead of all the competition for many years to come 🦾 Tesla to the 🌕⬆⬆⬆⬆⬆⬆⚡
I hope its sooner than five years!😢
Great illustration but I don't think Tesla NEEDS to have 100 exaflops to solve FSD
I think that was announced to have plenty of excess computing power for other applications
A nice feature would be to do a 1 or two minute recap of the day's news
Just a suggestion
Elon said that there Tesla will have a ChatGPT moment soon
I think a glacier is in the mountains, you're thinking of an iceberg. But nevertheless, great TSLA info.
Channel CybrLyft this morning posted a retest and solved the problem. Now the team just needs to make an adjustment.
Dave, you gotta account for the journey and not just the destination.
Dave’s channel and content are a perfect example of quality over quantity.
I think you mean an iceberg, not a glacier
💪❤
Anybody seen a model Y with hardware 4 from China
Like the tip of an iceberg, indeed…. When the tipping point occurs with Dojo + massive real-world data from the fleet, the world as we know it changes. Then Optimus/Tesla Bots disrupting and redefining 'labor'… whoa Nellie!!! Hold on to your hats, because it's gonna be a wild ride!!! SoCalFreddy
Loved you video! THX !!!
I 100% believe that 100 exaflops should get the job done for FSD in normal countries like the US but in countries like Lebanon where everyone drives like a mad person it will take at least 1 million exaflops to get FSD to work there!
Glaciers are rapidly retreating and disappearing due to climate change.
Nice video! I think one challenge for FSD is to understand proper speed limits for the environment when no speed limit data is available or the data is wrong. In the space of 1 mile I deal with two instances where my Model Y thinks the speed limit is 55 but max safe speed for the area is 45 IMO and no speed limit signs are posted. It is a new housing development and office park. I also wonder if the accelerating influx of data to Tesla, combined with the increase in computing power will at some point figure it all out suddenly. We can dream:)
Not everyone can try the product
Dave, I always love your perspective. Thanks for taking a break from your travels to share.
(I didn’t realize glaciers come up out of the water 😂)
Gotta admit, I am sad I purchased FSD. Granted, it was only $8k at the time, but there were projections made that V3 hardware would be good enough for robotaxi, and now it is clear that it will at minimum need v4 hardware, which cannot be upgraded to from v3, or most likely v5 hardware. Still enjoy being an FSD beta tester, but that $8k could have been put to better use. I think v3 hardware may only be capable of level 2 ADAS. Maybe level 3, but we will see how the software advances and whether the v3 chips and NNs can handle the pure video, occupancy network, and probabilistic methods the are moving towards.
Please come forward more often with your videos! We are missing you terribly.
And FSD is quite easy problem – moving only in 2D plane with 2 degrees of freedom (steer and accelerate), robot is much more interesting problem 😁
*Iceburg, not glacier. Stop saying glacier!!
When FSD comes out of beta, Tesla should name it COPILOT as a level 2 system. Don't wait for politicians to create problems – get ahead of the issue. Don't put caveats in the terms and conditions – put it in the name.
Tesla shouldnt reveal too much on fsd. If the gap is seen as insurmountable by competition then they will get the us congress /competition commmision to curb teslas growth as it risks becoming a monopoly. Right now lets tesla focus on mopping up every cent of ira $ for its batteries
u mean iceberg not glacier
Was impressed by my FSD in the last drive,
first of all the map gave me a choice of routes including the late nite one I always take from the freeway to my house on surface streets, it had never given me that choice before. It might not be the most direct, but it avoids stopping at dumb red lights
Then it drove the route almost exactly how I would have driven it, and it was almost like it was copying my style of driving. (slightly agressive)
I am afraid I am in the camp who sees true FSD being decades away. Five years Dave? – no way! Elon Musk has been promising FSD every year for the past five or more years, so no credibility can be given to what he says.
FSD – i don't think it will take another 1-2 years. What I expect latest in 6 months an approval in min 1 country or US State, maybe limited to defined streets as Highways or Autobahn with a max Speed of e.g. 140 km/h
Sorry, Dave, but glaciers don't grow underwater!!!
Are you confusing a glacier with a volcanic eruption ?
I think u mean an iceberg not a glacier 😉
If you need information about Turkey let me know it.
Great to hear from you !
Yes, but the stop sign is not an edge case..
Thank you so much David lee for understanding better for future FSD will be happen. I am so exciting!