“Every competitor in the auto business is testing FSD,” says Jeff Lutz. They have to be thinking about whether they will ever catch Tesla, or it’s just better to join them. Current FSD pricing makes no sense. What would be the best way.
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Upcoming episodes. Make sure you hit notification: These are good guesses. Subject to change
Wednesday Morning – After the Bell
Wednesday Mid Day – Scott Walter
Wednesday Afternoon- Good News Wednesday with Jeff Lutz
Thursday Morning – After the Bell
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We have two goals on this channel. Provide useful information about Elon Musk and his related businesses and provide some context to the Tesla stock story as it relates to the economy, the macro, the fundamentals, and the technicals.
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You were saying 2.6 million or more in 2023. Optimism is great but what’s the value in just fooling people?
Trying to assess the causes of stock price fluctuations seems to be pointless. The factual elements of the company give greater clarity than the actions of professional stock traders. Keep in mind that the price is a measure of confidence, and some of that is pure emotion or behaviours that shouldnt be iron-clad lessons.
I texted a friend today who had no idea that he was about to get a free trial of FSD. I’m excited to try it in my neighborhood. It’s about the closest we’ll get to a test of a European city. George Washington once said my town had a look of antiquity 😂. It will be a challenge
31:15 I’m hopeful that the system will learn to drive like a human. Some places are easier to navigate than others, but people figure it out. Whatever happens in my area can’t be worse than what I’ve seen tourists and teenagers do
10 cents a mile.
When Tesla shares hit $457. That is my retirement date.
Great show
Remember that Elon planned the $25k car to have no steering wheel or pedals. That meant that FSD had to be a part of the $25k package. So if the car could be built for $18k then both the profit and FSD had to be a total of $7k. I believe FSD will be far cheaper than any of us imagine.
What if your insurance drops 50% when using fsd.? That should pay for it mostly.
FSD Beta in 2024 Hmmm. How long will it take for the Feds to "certify" FSD to actual Full Self Driving? that is, of course, assuming that no one is killed when Beta software is released to basically anyone that wants it.
Golly, why don't I want to pay for beta software? How much time do you have? Tesla should give themselves a fighting chance. If there's confidence in the damned product, don't market as BETA software. This is absolute insanity.
Randy, brother, I'd love to hear some discussion about how FSD pricing works with the mission of accelerating the changeover from ICE to EV's.
I can't get my head around this… Right now, for the consumer, you want FSD to be cheap, so it get's used, pushes tesla EV adoption, kills some ICE sales and keeps us all safer.
BUT, once we go Robotaxi, the game changes.
Post Robotaxi, in light of the mission, you want to maximize the number of cars utilized as robotaxis. This kills ICE USAGE and sales the fastest.
Post Robotaxi, FSD should cost way more, so that owners are encouraged to put their car out for robotaxi work to pay for itself.
I think this is when Elon's 100k value comes into effect.
Jeff or Larry might be good to speak to this conundrum.
Sorry guys but V12.3 is not ready for prime time. It has run 2 red lights while I was supervising. It also is unable to negotiate an unmapped traffic circle. It either drives in circles or exits at the wrong exit after 540 or 720 degrees (the correct exit is 270 degrees). It also will occasionally make a significant hesitation when initiating turns (especially to the right onto a multilane road).
PS: It still speeds in active school zones and on first entering my neighborhood. It still can't drive in reverse.
an often overlooked problem with fsd is that Tesla needs to sell a car before they can sell a fsd copy. it‘s not as if a developer comes out with a new computer game that can instantly run on hundreds of million computers.
10:37 Elon said it’s mandatory that associates take customers on a demo ride before they leave with their new vehicle.
FSD is way too expensive right now, I think if changed to $7500 I think you could position it to be same price as tax credit and maybe convince people that its basically free but even then its too high.
I look at features like this no extra feature is worth more then 10% of the price of the car.
if sold as $200 month Tesla should be throwing in some extras like 1000 miles a month of included supercharging and free premium connectivity.
The free trial is great for getting lots more data into Tesla's hands to get FSD to become autonomous. However, going all out with demo drives and free trials while FSD still has to be supervised is a major anti-climax vs the Aha moment we are waiting for. The real value of FSD will be when you don't have to pay attention while it drives you around. That has a real value because you can work, read, watch a movie, play games, do whatever. As long as you have to supervise it, then the value is a fraction of what it will be, likely fairly soon. Tesla will possibly have to do another month of free FSD to gain the big adoption and AHA moment.
Jeff, Jeff, Jeff!
32:06 standardization
Get FSD on 60 Minutes and you will see a adoption accelerate!
Good job Randy, nice to see you serious 90% of the time vs 9% of the time. Maybe Jeff is rubbing off on you, that's a good thing.
I love my FSD V12, but I have has three years to become very familiar with it. I know instinctively what to expect when I am driving. I don’t think a new user will feel comfortable with FSD in just 30 days. I strongly suggest 90 days or longer free trial use.
The most important thing is that tesla keeps innovating and thus keeps ahead of competitors. In the end they will do things no one can keep up and being first will have a big impact no matter the competition because when you lead you keep the invitation of thoose products up while competing is trying to copying. Also the copyright parts might be more protected now that Elon saw what happened when they show to much of their innovation and skipped the AI day. Better they keep up the development and bring product to the market
I hope Elon can announce a major company is signing for their FSD. It will be like the charging network. After the first one they will all follow suit. It will be like Windows and Google almost a monopoly.
FSD only impresses Techies. Until Tesla provides autonomous Geofencing it is a toy.
My current workload is, assess the environment, plan my actions, execute my actions. My FSD workload is assess the environment, speculate on FSD actions, monitor FSD for compliance, decide to intervene, take emergency actions occasionally. All that for the low price of $12k.
It’s not ready yet. Absolutely needs geofencing where Tesla is liable for nontechnical ppl to care. They don’t want to pay to be a Tesla employee.
The pricing discussion made it very clear to me that Tesla should stop selling cars to individual owners. When FSD is finished they should start a Robotaxi network immediately. It will make much more money that individual owners are willing/able to pay for FSD.
I don't think Tesla has thoroughly thought through its new FSD delivery process mandated by Elon. In comparison to their recent delivery staffing, Tesla will need to vastly increase its new car delivery staff. In addition, as Jeff pointed out, they will need to quickly and thoroughly educate and train their delivery staff about the very latest FSD releases. These people will also need significant experience driving (or riding along with) FSD. In the meantime, Musk's new order that every delivery be accompanied by the FSD demo will paralyze new vehicle deliveries. Even for those first-time new Tesla owners who have prepared by watching YouTube and Tesla videos, their first few hours in their new Tesla is stressful and bewildering. To throw FSD on top of this initiation to a Tesla may be just totally overwhelming to the average Tesla customer. Tesla's new car delivery will be even more chaotic than it has historically been. Time will tell………………….
Scott indicated that the main reason Tesla is making FSD more readily available is because Tesla now needs more data. Two things support this idea. Tesla is no longer computer constrained and less interventions are being reported. They need an increase in the number of interventions to find and resolve more edge cases. This is the fastest way of improving FSD in order to get closer to no interventions. The game of 9s is on.
I want FSSD but only drive 8000 miles per year. I'd pay $99/mo.
A usage fee makes the most sense, unless you are maybe a business.
Thanks for bringing Jeff to the "all things Tesla" discussion. Jeff offers excellent analysis, especially on complex topics such as FSD. Great show!
Tesla is in Deep Trouble…Bots and FSD are still years away from any financial impact…
As I said last month, Q1 will be AWFUL….and even though Ford and GM are saying 2024
is looking stronger than expected, Tesla's Sales are lagging. Why???
Dan Ives just confirmed EVERYTHING I have been saying for the last 3 months….
We Tesla shareholders are paying a huge price for the Distraction of the TWTR acquisition by
CEO Elon Musk, that caused Tesla to miss an entire product cycle, resulting in almost
ZERO Unit Growth for 2 years, atleast…
Appreciate Jeff's thoughts…..
Spoke with a dude at a charger who had had his secondhand Model 3 for a few months, and he had never used AUTOPILOT in all that time and didn’t even know how to invoke it. He seemed like quite the sharp young man, his priorities may simply not be as focused on the car’s capabilities than are those of some of us.
Where would Tesla store 100 000 plus Gen 3 vehicles before launch?
There's at least a 50% chance we get a 3 handle on one the Production/Delivery numbers…..
Be Careful……..
I’m still at 2.0-2.1 pending a meaningful shift in FSD adoption and also evidence of pin-action effect on sales. Agree , the rapid FSD improvement does introduce a new positive variable
Randy did you notice that Tesla was down to 175, even after getting people the opportunity to use beta software free, model 3 refresh, cyberthud, billions of bots? Come on. Cheer me up. give me more speculation
Maybe it's time to change the coach.
Summon and Bannish will only be rolled out when Tesla insurance takes liability. If that is the cases we will know Robotaxi is not that far away. Why, because Summon and Bannish are driverless functions and thus level 5, over a short distance. Usually parking will be within a mile from where the owner gets out of the car and banneshes their Tesla. Conversly when the owner wishes to be picked up by their Tesla from a car park this will be within a mile from where the Tesla parked.
Ps
Summon and Bannish will need to be able to know if a car park is full or not, will need to be able to read parking signs and not park in disabled bays and know if a car park is closed. I assume the car can park on the street, thus will need to understand parking restrictions – for which there are many.
Also who will be liable for any parking fines when the car screws up – which it will.
Summon and Bannish are hard things to do ontop of level 5 automony over short distances.
Full autonomy is just the general case of Summon and Bannish.