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SOURCES:
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Timestamps:
0:00 – introduction
1:28 – recap
13:51 – sponsor
15:13 – judgement
18:43 – lessons learned
20:26 – the future
Attribution:
Neon sign from: https://www.neonlights.be/discount/M&M15
Researched and Written by Dr. Joeri Schasfoort & Oskar Matthey
Animations by Hugo (Into Europe)
Thumbnail by Tom Hurling
Narrated, Produced & Edited by Joeri Schasfoort
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There is a reason why Russia has just lost 2% of GDP. It’s the war economy.
I struggle to trust an opinion whereby just having a pipeline (even if with ZERO M3 running, just sitting idle) would constitute a "dependency" or even a setback.
If anything, it gives bargaining power to the gas buyer… ….
The only winners from the sanctions are the US. They played europeans beautifully, making them buy its mega overpriced LNG and burning bridges by blowing up the Nord Stream, instead of conducting meaningful diplomacy and stopping the war(
Don't invade. Don't shell a neutral zone for 8 years.
When i look at the scoreboard…. it isnt apparent what the big flame or half flame really represent haha. Big flame = burn = bad?
It’s a marathon.
you skipped over quite a few capital controls russia utilized to stabilize things.. can we even really be sure what the Ruble is worth?
Because Russia is large, and because much of the world is willing to provide substitutes.
US brought inflation to all the world for increasing the influence of NATO in Europe.
who's winning? USA is winning. anyhow American LNG and crude exporters….and any other countries doing the same….
I would love an analysis on the syrian sanctions and especially after the ceasers act in 2019 , its killing us
Civil war start in russia 2023…😁👍💀💀💀💀💀💀💀💀💀💀💀💀
turkey invaded syria but nobody said anything
Actually why did this war even start ?
Jij bent Nederlands 😎
Well listening to that commentary with the Hell March playing in the background gave me a laugh if nothing else.
I think these conclusion are based on short term data and outlook. The impact of this war, regardless of sanctions, is going to ruin Russia. Economy, demographics, everything. Excluding Canada and Mexico but including Australia in "US and Allies" is such a gross oversight, it throws the whole analysis in the toilet. The thing is, we should damn well hope these sanctions work because losing them isn't some "I told you so" moment on YouTube.
I think that old numbers are used in your analysis. Like IMF did that prediction before the end of the year and January numbers were published. Russia currently faces huge budget deficit of 1.76 trillion rubles ($25 billion) due to sanctions on energy sector.
I think there are plans to reduce oil and gas production. Also plans to raises taxes (bind taxes not to actual oil sale price of Urals, but to market price of Brent) + plans to ask big companies to pay "one time" "voluntary" tax payment.
Basically, sanctions finally started to hit Russia hard
As for inflation, I think Russian ruble lost 20% in past 2 years. Which is not a small amount even for Russians
Good discussion! The problem with your analysis is that the appropriate counterfactual is what the situation would have been with the West not imposing sanctions (vs. imposing sanctions). Many of those consequences would be on the battlefield, in young Russians not leaving, in China feeling emboldened to invade Taiwan, and in Russia having felt it can do even worse things in Ukraine. Even if the sanctions haven't forced Russia either onto its knees (economically) or out of Ukraine (militarily), they have been successful in very important ways.
No one give fuck to Nato ..Eu / USA buying same Russian oil and gas from india with higher price whom they fool of sanctions
On your point #1
You said “assets are safe if you don’t invade your neighbor, which is not that hard”
Wrong!
7B$ of Iran’s money has been frozen by South Korea since 2018. What happened in 2018? Iran invaded another country? No. Trump unilaterally withdrew form JCPOA and imposed sanctions on Iran.
Western (read American, Europe is a vassal state of the US) justice is arbitrary. Leave your assets in their hands at your own peril.
The latest price of electricity from wind is €0.035 per kilowatt. Gas is soon over.
Sanctions are working, plain and simple. Russia has gained nothing from starting this war. No one has, but russia si the one suffering the most (besides ukraine). Also, I hope european countries are starting to learn something. They are not the evil villain that these third worlders and fascist former russian allies protrai them to be, and sanctions and more imperialistic idealogies towards other countries, like south americans, africans etc should be reimposed. There should be no reason for europeans to deal with the swamps of the world the way they have been doing, because ultimatly, for all the wrong doings in european history, the shitheads of the rest of the world are certainly no better. Just poorer.
I have never hear that all those sanctions are that ineffective from the mainstream media. .
Winners of Putin's war.
1) US
2) China
3) India
Losers of Putin's war.
1) Ukraine
2) EU
3) Every country dependent on imported food and energy and not having the means to pay higher prices or the political will to defy the West in the intrest of their own citizens.
But did they find weapons of mass destruction?
Very interesting assessment, but I disagree on the military potential. Russia is unable to produce modern tanks and missiles on a large scale right now. It has been sending fifty-year old tanks to the frontlines and using low-tech Iranian drones to compensate, but it’s losing the armement built up. Its winter offensive is advancing a couple of kilometres a month at huge costs (see Vuhledar) and it will face a deadly counteroffensive this Spring. Anyway, time will tell, but it’s not looking good for the dictator…
All fine and dandy but assumption that numbers coming from Russia when saying anything resembling truth is national crime, well… such assumption makes any GDP, inflation numbers just junk. We can only see that they aren't able to produce enough tanks, drones and ammunition, therefore their ability to murder people is crippled.
🤣🤣🤣🤣 the sanction boomerang and hit western Europe instead