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For nearly seven months, the war in Ukraine was not really regarded as a genuine war by the Russian government. The fighting would be done not by a fully mobilised Russian force, but by regular units, mercenaries, and Donbass conscripts – Russia’s own conscripts would stay at home.
But after seven months the result of that complacency was a crushing shortage of manpower to feed Russian frontline units. Ukrainian mobilisation had made good manpower losses and allowed the formation of entirely new units – while the Russian regular army, still undoubtedly a powerful force, found itself overstretched and forced to trust sections of the front to proxies or Rosgvardia.
The results of that policy were obvious during the Kharkiv offensive.
Now, Russia has decided to double down and recommit to war. Announcing mobilisation, enacting stop-loss, and ‘annexing’ parts of Ukraine.
In this video, I explore why, how it’s going, and what the implication may be.
Patreon:
https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU
Caveats:
All my videos suffer from fog-of-war effects, but this one is especially difficult because it relies on things that are hard to quantify. The morale of Russian conscripts for example, is critical to the impact this mobilisation has, but is difficult to assess from open sources. As such, take my observations in this video as an attempt to surface relevant considerations, rather than any kind of confident or definitive assessment.
I also want to stress that while I focus on some of the difficulties Russia is facing during the mobilisation I want to bring one point home yet again.
Russia may be able to find its feet and generate new units if given time and an absence of battlefield pressure. It would be wrong to write off Russian mobilisation potential – and thus It is reasonable to assess that the importance of Ukraine accumulating additional resources in order to compensate is more vital than it has been in months (in my humble opinion).
Notes on Sourcing:
CSIS piece on Russian force design and manpower issues
https://www.csis.org/blogs/post-soviet-post/best-or-worst-both-worlds
Aljazeera (just as an illustration of media coverage) on Russian recruitment strategies prior to mobilisation:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/18/russia-turns-to-trucks-and-big-wages-to-woo-volunteer-soldiers
Full text of the mobilisation order:
https://www.politico.eu/article/text-vladimir-putin-mobilization-decree-war-ukraine-russia/
Many of the DLPR/Russian sources used in this video should be familiar to those on this channel. Given the nature of many of these individuals, I do not directly link their content (and obviously do not endorse their views). But these are easy to find if verification is desired. Often quoted for example is Alexander Khodakovsky, commander of a ‘regular’ unit of the (now defunct) so called ‘DPR.’
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Khodakovsky
Again, credit to Rob Lee and others for their work collecting and reporting on Russian obituaries and unit casualty identification.
https://twitter.com/RALee85
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:40 — What Am I Covering?
00:02:41 — Sponsor: BLINKIST
00:04:20 — The Problem
00:04:48 — Strategic Inputs
00:06:24 — Russia’s ‘Unused Strength’
00:08:22 — 1GTA: Instructors and Missileers
00:09:26 — Driving Issues
00:09:37 — I1: Casualties and Attrition
00:11:03 — I2: Contract Lapses
00:13:36 — I3: Recruitment Deficit
00:15:46 — I4: Deployment Restrictions
00:16:58 — Bleeding or Just Fading Away?
00:18:12 — Preparation & Denial
00:19:47 — The Announcement
00:21:07 — The Document
00:22:45 — Reality Might be a Bit Different…
00:23:04 — Stop-Loss & Referenda
00:23:15 — Stop-Loss, Russian Style
00:25:07 — Redefining Russia
00:27:36 — Mobilisation
00:27:51 — Russian Reserves/Resources
00:28:12 — What Are the Russian “Reserves”
00:28:50 — Russian Reserve Readiness
00:29:30 — Who is Being Called Up
00:30:52 — Making Quota
00:32:57 — Training Standards
00:35:42 — Training Failures at the Personal Level
00:37:40 — Equipment Standards
00:39:17 — BYO Kit
00:42:14 — Acknowledging Missteps
00:44:26 — Public Responses
00:45:52 — Motivations for Evasion
00:46:45 — Evaluating the Public Response
00:48:11 — Impacts & Questions
00:48:52 — Q1: Training Pipeline
00:52:27 — Q2: Morale
00:54:26 — Q3: Utilisation
00:56:14 — Stabilising the Situation
00:57:51 — Learning from Ukraine
01:00:44 — A Workable Proxy?
01:03:34 — Inflection Potential?
01:05:23 — Towards General Mobilisation…
01:07:18 — More Painful War
01:09:00 — Conclusions
01:11:43 — Channel Update
source
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And, again, apologies for always being a week behind the news – but I always prefer to have a fuller picture rather than be first to the punch.
Before I would even considered fighting in the referendum areas in Ukraine wanting to join Russia, I want to see those people in the fight before I go.
I need question answered if possible. It been stated a russian submarine carrying nuke torpedos has left its base in the north of russia, it is supposedly going to go to the black sea for a test of the said torpedo. So my question is if the nuke was detonated in the north sea could it destroy the UK by a tsunami? Russian Tv shows are war playing this. I have my own thoughts on it and that is no. So whats your take on it. Also how likely will the Russians use a nuke in Ukraine, will your valid viewers have a view on this?
I remember watching your dominions 5 guides, just checked on your channel and you blew up. Good to see you're still making content man
Why would you draft 50+ years old men.. ffs
Too many details to consider. Too many lies, from the Russian part. I’m tired of losing Wars. My Country has lost a lot of them lately. I actually served in one of them. Putin threatens Nukes? Ok, I from the Cold War. Nuclear War was eventual. Let’s do this…….Nuke em. We all die, that should solve the issue. I’m willing…….Vietnam Vet USN…..some threaten to use them. My Country is the only one that actually did use them. You should ponder that fact! Go for the throat ……….
Who’s this Russia person?
putin says he has lost nothing , 60,000+ dead orcs in Ukraine would disagree
One factor you did not mention about mobilisation – it came too late. The time to mobilise is before things go visibly wrong.
Also, your description of the least suitable subject for conscription fitted me perfectly (no offence taken,) Where do I report to, and can I have a blue, Disabled Parking, badge for my tank?
Looking forward to your next episode
February 2022: "do you want to fight till the last Ukrainian?"
October 2022: "do you want to fight till the last russian?"
(russia has 3.2 times more the population, but loses 3.95 times more the military equipment as for now)
Who would have known that popcorn and PowerPoint went hand in hand?
Really like this video, great work.
best if they all mobilize so they can all die 🙂
China will supply them
What do you think of getting on to Nebula?
It means more to die and thin out Russia.
Archangel Michael
420 stuff tampons in gunshot wounds erryday
Great post as always. Love your analysis and the dry Aussie humour
23:46
Darth Putin: "I am altering the deal. Pray I don't alter it any further"
Great info that is well presented…there must be a lot of work that goes into making these! well done sir…
27:15 Good idea, we should have a referendum over the freedom of Königsberg.
Also, Belarus used to be Polish and Lithuanian territory, historically speaking. So I say we ask the Polish and Lithuanians, wether they want that back.
I know this comment is besides the point of the video
however: many of those mobilization issues would be present in western militaries aswell if they had to mobilze anywhere near the number of soldiers than russia intents. 2 Winters ago the german army ran out of fuel for example, without being anywhere near a wartime scenario.
Do not wanna say it changes smth, but in the Russian original of the doc Putler signed there's word "partial"
Just wanted give some constructive feed back and let you know that you said doo-doo at 28:23. Thank you for your time.
I was hoping when we were talking about kit we would get the old” shit box 1980” kit text. Great video! Millions of us Americans have better kit in civilian world than Soviet I mean Russian. Great video per usual! This war I mean special military operation is shit show! But I don’t see Russia capitulating!
RF army will become able to "time travel", omg @Perun, you crack me up
Solid as always mate 🙏🫡
Would people in Africa be allowed to vote in the Kaliningrad referendum. I'm keen to participate