Patreon 72: If Jan 1939 Tsingtao incident leads to war, how does RN carrier force fair against IJN?



Michael66: If Tsingtao incident leads to war, how does the 1939 RN carrier force fair against the 1939 IJN force?
Tsingtao January 1939 https://globalmaritimehistory.com/tsingtaojanuary1939/
Captain Brind(HMS Birmingham) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patrick_Brind
Richard Dunley Economic Warfare Plan for Japan https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/07075332.2021.1989704

00:00 Patreon 72: If Jan 1939 Tsingtao incident leads to war, how does RN carrier force fair against IJN?
22:00 Part 2
44:00 Part 3
01:06:00 Part 4
01:28:00 Part 5
01:50:00 Part 6
02:12:00 Part 7
02:34:00 Part 8
02:56:00 Part 9
03:18:00 Part 10
03:40:00 End

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13 thoughts on “Patreon 72: If Jan 1939 Tsingtao incident leads to war, how does RN carrier force fair against IJN?”

  1. Yeah Hood is the symbol of the British Empire, scrapping her will be tricky given her reputation which could have a political allure, so frankly they might have to name one of the new super battleships, as the next HMS Hood

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  2. Yeah if Hood is not lost in the fighting with the Japanese, her large repair or reconstruction will be done and her reputation will have increased in the eyes of the British public

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  3. Thinking over it.

    Germany and Italy would want to claim Moral Superiority.

    France probably would stay out of it. But Portugal, Dutch and every smaller power would probably want in.

    So Germany and Italy would probably set up patrols of ships most likely cruisers escorting Transports because they want to ensure their trade goes unmolested by the British.

    Except of course they will be trying to make profits from Japan whom they have close relations with.

    And so conflict and aggression would build up until the British banned them from the Pacific which might lead to conflict in its own right. Which Italy could leverage.

    But at the end of the day. I am not sure that These Social Pariahs would happily allow a friendly be entirely crushed and beaten up without reactions.

    But it comes down to the personal motivations of those two fascist leaders.

    Possibly Germany would seek to profit from the blockade, while the Italian Navy would want national pride by joining the conflict against Japan.

    Could be amusing to the impact that difference of opinion between those leaders Could butterfly from there.

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  4. Hello Dr Clarke.

    Hope I find you well.
    A question on German and Italian involvement in the war. While I do agree that both Germany and Italy would want to be involved in the war would they actually be able to support their fleets operating in the far east reasonably independently?
    The reason I ask is that, for the Kriegsmarine in particular, I have doubts about how much they could actually support of their own fleet (such as it would be). It is all well and good trying to claim the international prestige game but if you require major support to do it then that prestige is somewhat dampened. I could potentially see Hitler not wanting to "loose face" on the international scene by trying to send a fleet, or even a couple of ships, and having to rely on help from the British or worse yet the French to make it feasible. Also would the Germans want the British and French taking a close look at their ships up close?

    I think that the alternative of sitting back and letting Britain and France get distracted in the Far East to make some moves in Europe would be appealing also.

    What could be a "Funny" scenario is Germany thinking it can take advantage of the situation and invade France while they are distracted (yes unlikely but who knows, the lure of avenging the loss to France in WW1 outweighs the return of Tsingtao). They do this on the day or just before the USA allies with Britain and France.

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  5. Dr Clarke, simple question, but at 60m range can either the 6 inch or 8 inch guns on the cruisers depress far enough to hit the opposing magazines? Or are they limited to superstructure shots, which will be murderous but may not sink the ships.

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  6. Excellent video and analysis. Now I want to solo wargame this out using the old SPI "War In The Pacific" game on VASSAL after I backfit the force pool using this information.

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  7. Not long ago, I got to see a Grumman F3F "Flying Barrel" at an airshow: a great looking aircraft. It got me wondering how the US Navy would have done in 1939 against IJN in the first year with both sides using a mix of biplanes and monoplanes and important '42 naval combatants not yet in service. Though your presentation was primarily of a British scenario, I found it interesting.

    That said, in your scenario, I think Germany would have taken advantage of Brittain's distraction in the Pacific to still invade Poland, reasoning the British wouldn't want to fight 2 wars at once. I also think Brittain would still have kept back a significant part of the fleet at home due to the Nazi problem after seeing the rest of Czechoslovakia annexed. So a British-Japan naval war wouldn't have Japan heavily outnumbered. And once Germany started their European war, Britain would have shifted the Pacific war to second priority like it did historically. Malaysia would have remained a hard nut to crack due to the lack of nearby land bases, but I think New Brittain and Papua New Guinea would have tended towards the historical with the nearby Japanese island processions giving them their historical invasion launching points.

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  8. Thanks for a very enjoyable and informative session, certainly had a couple of aspects that got me thinking (see my other comments).

    I have a book recommendation for you, something which I think would be of interest to you both in considering this topic, and in considering British defence of the Empire in a wider context in the 20s/30s. The book is Imperial Military Geography by Major D H Cole, published by Sifton Praed and Co Ltd (first Edition published 1924, I have the ninth edition, published September 1937 – a lucky find, picked up for a fiver at a Wargames convention). The forward states: “The primary aim of this book is to describe, in their geographical setting, the defence problems of the British Empire; its secondary aim is to give a brief but adequate outline of the forces immediately available to bear the initial burden of these responsibilities, and also to take stock of the resources in man power and material which might ultimately be mobilised for National otr Imperial needs.”

    Its very well written, and covers aspects of Imperial Defence , as well as British perceptions of how other Powers view their own interests that I hadn't previously considered, and which gives a much more rounded view of the subject. I think you'd find this an interesting and valuable tome. ABE Books currently has the 1935 Edition for £14, I think its worth investing.

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  9. Dr Clarke, Maybe I misinterprited you, but I find myself disagreeing with part of your assessment on the likelyhood of other powers (especially America) joining the war. I can see your reasoning about why they'd want to (you need to be in the war to help shape the peace, you lose prestige in the area if the British "win" and you aren't involved), but there are counterveiling factors which you didn't cover which I think make foreign entry into the war less likely.

    Lets start with the United States. While I agree that strategically the US would want to get involved for the reasons you state, its not that simple due to domestic politics. There is still a strong isolationist feeling in the country, and if the bombing of a US warship (USS Panay incident, 1937) didn’t provoke war then I can’t see the sinking of a British one doing so automatically. The US Establishment may think its worth a war, but try telling the Great American Public that little Johnny and hundreds/thousands like him have been killed to preserve US Prestige, it doesn’t go down well. And with 1940 being an election year FDR is somewhat constrained in what he can do if he’s to avoid handing his opponent a stick to beat him with ("Why is FDR dragging us into Britain's war? Why should American boys die to protect the British Empire?"). The contrast between FDRs handling of Pannay (with US dead, US bought off) and Birmingham (no US involvement, US going to war) incidents could be very awkward on the election trail, and FDR is a canny enough politician to know it.

    So my take on it is that If Japan provides a casus belli (or the US can provoke or manufacture one) then the US gets actively involved, but until then I can’t see the US becoming a belligerent.

    Its a similar case with France and the Netherlands – what reason can they give their public for going to war – THEY haven't been attacked, and there is no NATO like treaty to automatically bring them in. So why should they go to war over this? How do they sell this to the man on the street? How do they justify the deaths domestically?

    Russia is different – Stalin doesn't have to worry about pesky things like elections and I can quite see an opportunistic Stalin manufacturing an incident to give him a caseus bellai to join the war as an agreaved party should he see advantage to do so.

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