On episode 79 of The Compound and Friends, Michael Batnick and Downtown Josh Brown are joined by Jason Hsu to discuss the latest FOMC meeting, the Chinese market, hard vs soft data, the housing market, earnings for Apple, Amazon, and Google, the Adani rout, and much more!
This episode is sponsored by Kraneshares. Visit https://www.chinalastnight.com for a daily recap of China’s equity, fixed income, and currency markets.
More from Jason: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jasonchsu
00:00 – Intro
07:01 – Market Strength
11:32 – Is this Sustainable?
20:41 – Hard Data vs. Soft Data
27:58 – Housing
31:36 – Corporate Spending
36:53 – China
41:24 – Earnings
44:28 – Hedge Fund Positioning
47:06 – GDP
51:17 – Adani Enterprises
59:52 – Apple
01:08:16 – Favorites
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This episode is sponsored by Kraneshares. Visit https://www.chinalastnight.com for a daily recap of China’s equity, fixed income, and currency markets.
Michael’s ADHD is off the charts – interrupting the guest’s story telling with the daily stock market moves 😂
Why have a guest on if you don’t let him finish a thought before interrupting him…
Apple has a great design team. They will streamline the VR headset and make it sleek and cool.
“We can’t collect the rent on our IP without someone actually making the manufacturing goods.”
No. We can’t collect the rent on our IP if it’s stolen by China.
Why have guests when Batnick nonstop interrupts. Show would be much better with no Batnick.
Episode 3 of The Last of Us was possibly one of the best single world building episodes of a series I think I've ever seen in my life.
Mid 2000s – omg gas at $3 economy gonna crash, omg gas at $4 economy gonna crash, omg gas $5 hmmm guess gas prices don't matter – CRASH. Beware when people tell you something (like high rates) is ok when everyone knows it's bad. Earnings reports and CEOs telling us it's bad and traders saying nahhh it's ok. Also, insider selling at higher ratio than at August peak. Was AMZN dropping every 30 minutes Friday afternoon on the top/bottom of hour not insider selling lol?
Michael actually looks a lot like larry fine from the three stooges
👍 Thanks
Great choice of guest. Rob Arnott next
Both CAT and DE have already come a long way from the lows. If you look at them on a chart there's definite resistance around these ATH levels. And they didn't seem to participate in this latest rally even compared to some of the junk names
the layoffs will come in when the feds damage comes in about 12 months after the first increase because it always lags that much. When layoffs start the housing market will take a hot poop on the floor and the rental market will too. This is how all real recessions go, first the fed hikes rates the loses, then layoffs to cover loses, then the damage of higher interest debt comes in and they can’t refinance their debt anymore 😅. Then more layoffs. I’m not even going to mention the open doors and zillows that are flush with stock and are bleeding out right 😂. The builders are also selling at a lose and racing to the bottom to beat each other and the regular homes sellers out there. The housing market will take a hot poop on this go around, I bet $ on it.
This is nothing more than a short squeeze and FOMO by soon-to-be bag holders 🤣
The US can definitely move away from China we all of the Americas 😂🤣
Are they paying their heating bills at the office? 🧣
Just feel like you didn’t let him talk much. Through when he did it was little. Still, love the show.
Omg stop interrupting your guest and just let him speak!
I enjoy the show but the constant talk about inflation being controlled and the cash rate not going much higher is a joke.
Josh said a year ago that inflation was good for lower incomes people because it lifted there wages. Those wages have not kept up and Josh was wrong.
I'm old enough to remember the marketing efforts to convince us to fuse those ridiculous VR goggles to our faces back in 1997… I also remember quite a few product flops from old-Apple.
🎈🇨🇳
China brought us corvid…you guys proud of that here on the compound?
china lied and people died remember that.
The bear case is that the Federal Reserve will likely need to create an output gap to reduce inflation to 2%.
Forgot how good the compound is. Even during a bera market. DCA into gold bitcoin and beat up stocks next year or two. Buy low hold for years. Sell high.
Great episode. Extremely informative for myself, as I’ve never been a heavy investor in other markets, just a little to stay diversified.
Blue oceans 🎉
@Josh I can get you a mortgage if you choose not to pay cash for that house. We are at 4.5% 10 yr arm to 1.2 million loan hit me up
What about meme stocks?
TLOU ep 3 was more than an hour long, but definitely felt like 30 minutes.
The guest is wrong. Inflation falling to 2% this year = fair P/E 18x. S&P earnings = $200
The people who got the stimulus spent that money immediately. No idea why Michael and Jamie Dimon think the lower income class actually save money. Michael bullish, Jason is rightly expecting a recession and contracting PE's. This market will go down.
Invite Karen. And let guest speak
That Apple eyewear looks like a headband from Naruto anime 🗿⚡
Jason needs to be a regular. Great addition to the conversion and the differenxe in perspective was refreshing.
So on the way up it was don’t fight the fed but now all the liquidity is being removed you can fight the fed and we are back to the the races , peope are going to get their faces ripped off shin before summer brutally mauled just take the risk free 4 to 5 percent in fixed income and be patient
Buy and hold for ever guys are fine but if you try to trade this probably going to get wrecked
For fucks sake, change the wifi password and don't give it to michael. Or better yet, just eliminate him from the show, he contributes almost nothing of value and has horrible investing instincts.
In the SF Bay Area the high earners at the tech companies are being fired and the job gains are minimum wage service jobs. Real estate is in terrible shape. I see a major recession in the second half of this year
The story is over boys. Wait until the second half of 2023. I’m saving this video
Josh – that house on Shore Drive… the LOT is 7,200 sq.ft. 😂😂😂
Mike, please stop interrupting Josh (or guest). Nothing on your laptop is more interesting. If Josh is making a point, please let him finish his point. Your interruptions are becoming a Pounder Problem
Is it just me or has anyone seen the correlation of Baba's growth to the stock market?
Re Adani – read Damodaran’s assessment which was the most nuanced take on this thing. Indian markets are still evolving and short selling is frowned upon because regulators still view it as nuisance type activities. Regulators have stepped in historically and put their thumb on the scales especially when the entity in question is close to the ruling party which adani is. All said and done -Adani exploited the weakest seams of the Indian system and used that to drive up its stock prices. At the end of the day this isn’t a company that is peddling crypto but actually owns hard assets like shipping ports. So far the government has not said a peep on adani which shows maturity of the government unlike how previous governments reacted (see Vodafone retroactive taxes by Pranab Mukherjee – a former finance minister with a steep socialist bent).
Solid thanks fellas , keep it comin.
Subscribe like and comment. Namatse, bitches. JoM
Charlie Munger is absolutely right about China and the USA needing to be friends in order to usher in a new era of human prosperity.