There has always been a lot of sensationalism surrounding this topic that in my view seems not completely taking in the full picture.
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Early next year i plan to expand my rural Japan cafe to include rescuing stray cats in my area to turn it into a unique Cat Cafe. Any help is very much appreciated.
I was surprised and didn't agree in the first few minutes, but by the end you have totally changed my mind on this whole conversation. I'd never really thought to sit down and basically ask 'why is a declining population such a bad thing'. Obviously you also hear the normal rhetoric of supporting society with working-age people, but with the growth of hyper-capitalistic companies now, I think it will really just come down to re-adjusting assumptions/ideas of what growth can/should look like. You make a lot of good nuanced points about how japan is also already uniquely adjusted/adjusting for graceful population decline. Honestly a whole new perspective I had never really considered before. Thanks for the vid!
I love your information and perspective, but to be honest I find it hard to hear everything over the car noise.
Japan has the same problem as Korea. People are doing the horizontal tango but not having kids because it costs too much, too much effort, too much stress, etc. If you are a salaryman, why deal with the hassle of marriage and having kids when being single is easier? Or SF? Or casual gf/bf? Unless the government addresses the toxic workforce and these other issues, the population decline will not change. This is also a worldwide issue but is the worst in China, Japan, and Korea. Adoption is also extremely hard and toxic in Japan, with a push on birth children.
Throsten… is it Throsten J. Pattberg by chance?
China 1-child policy is "it's a fee for the rich and a fine for the poor". There was also some kind of loop hole with Hong Kong that the middle-class understood very well.
That's why those numbers don't "add up", it's because people will be people and do what they want. Think about it, do you imagine a wealthy man with a vast dynasty is going to let the government dictate to him how he should breed? Would any man really? Life finds a way.
I think it is only economic reason. People can argue with that but from my experience, living in dofferent countries etc. Everything, the whole life of people depends on exonomics, money etc. (And of course health but here is not the case as japanese are quite healthy in general). If I see some rich people sometimes in Europe for example they have always a few children , even from different marriages 😅 or with different women because they can AFFORD it amd there is no problem. The problem starts when someone has not enough income..
Wow. That is a concise video on the issue. And you pointed out many things I always was curious about the situation from a boots on the ground perspective.
So as you asked I will give my opinion as somebody "addicted do geography and history" I think I am able to give you few bullet points.
The media pointing out the Japabese case is simply based on two things. Firstly, it is that Japan was the first developed economy to have its population shrinking so it became the one that many economists and demographers hope to crack the first real solution to the problem. And second reason why they make all the hysteria is because there is always battles of narratives. The society that is restricted to the internet is over politicised and polarised.
The thing over Chinese population and the One Cild Policy there are so many issues with it. I myself saw Chineses buying a whole midwife center in Brazil in the early 2000s in order to enable their middle class to have more than one children since if a resident out of China was not under that policy. But yes I also do not belive they have that whole population. The A Nation with empty nest gets into these issue with lots of data to back their claim, according with the author China peaked around 2010-2012 with around 1.32 billion and are now at 1.28 billion and shrinking quickly. And that explains a lot of things about China.
Regarding the Japanese Government handling of the problem I have my doubts if they can really manage to avoid the positive loop to take over the whole country crack the society cohesion.
And Yeah, there are at least 2 dozen countries in a way worse situation. My partner is Corean and what I hear from the Corean community over here is that absolutely nobody wants to have children over there. The country is litterally heading to extinction if they keep the same trend.
You can make more videos on the way you guys are handling in the country.
I am really interested in the topic. You got a new follower
The foreigners that rush and buy a akiya are very ignorant as well i seen lots of these videos about them. Most don't speak Japanese or know anything about the culture or have a proper visa to even live in the country,there is so many things you have to look at before buying one it's very risky if you don't know what your doing. Gen Z and many immature adults today don't like truth or facts so thats why you get ignorant people from time to time making stupid comments on your vids attacking you. My great grandfather always said "empty wagons make alot a noise" the people who talk so much have no real knowledge of things is the meaning of this.great vid keep em coming bro 💪
29:04 AI can help a doctor to find something from let's say thousands of images or something like that. AI can't do work fo doctors! It would be a completelly disaster! It is just a tool, kind of statistics algorithm nothing more but there are a lotnof companies from California which want to make money on this so they advertise it as a wonder machine who can do eveyrhing but this is kibd of nonsense. Also people now for everyrhing they see , call it AI is l8nd of funny. My radio controlled robot, people who see it in the park when I am testing it , call ot AI as well 🤣🤣🤣
Replacing population with immigrants destroy countries
Wow, I totally disagreed with your initial takes in this video, but then later on you started to come around to what I'm thinking. Japan's population is ageing and there are not enough people to service the economy as it stands. The government is slowly trying to change immigration policies to let more people into the country, but due to the barriers of Japan's language and culture, this is proving a lot more difficult than other countries. This issue is happening across other Asian countries as you correctly point out. Australia is only now starting to limit immigration mainly due to the housing crisis, but immigration has helped drive economic growth for years. The lack of the so-called "hysteria" you mention is because the government doesn't tell the nation what's happening per se, or maybe because you live in the country-side. To bring Japan out of its dire economic, it needs to keep driving GDP and without workers … that won't happen. More women in the workforce, cost of living pressures, the traditional male-dominated society, people are just not getting married … the economy will collapse if there are not enough people to drive it. It's not a sudden thing so you are right, hysteria is unwarranted, but I wouldn't want to live in Japan in 25 years.
So prescient that you would have this as a subject to discuss. On my flight back two weeks ago, I sat next to a college professor who was teaching in the USA but was a French National. During the course of the flight, the issue of Japan's declining birthrate came up, and, as you say, he proceeded to paint this sensationalized picture of gloom and doom (which, of course, included the only solution as opening Japan's borders). I shared my 8-week observation of Japan, and that, compared to the natural-born birthrate of my native USA, Japan seemed to have many more children from middle class families than what I saw at home. I asked the question of him " If this is what "Below Replacement" fecundity looks like in Japan, what does it say about the USA, where I haven't observed 1/10th of the natural-born offspring in public places"? Of course, his profession encourages "I am the science" attitudes, and he proceeded to recite statistics; however, as someone who also has training in statistics, I've seen how numbers can be manipulated to "prove" anything. Sometimes the best strategy for the weatherman is to stop staring at the instruments, and look out the window.
At the end of the day, I'm much less worried about Japan's future, and their ability to bequeath their thousand-year history to their descendants, than I am about the offspring of the people who founded the USA. Speaking for myself, I admit I am in wonder of the thousands of shrines and temples that define Japan, but I would be a very poor vessel to define to future generations just exactly what the deeper meaning is to the Japanese psyche; no, only someone born there who carries the soul of the land for a hundred generations can be chosen for such a task.
Hi mate, in the EU I've started to see a lot of media coverage of Spain, Italy, Portugal, Romania etc. as the birth rates are low and much of the youth leave to pursue education/job opportunities abroad. About 3000 villages in Spain have been abandoned in the past 5 decades for example. Probably similar or worse compared to parts of Japan
I mean it is what it is, depopulation and its knock-on effects also opens some doors to be opened by someone savvy.
Opinion or observation pieces are infinitely more interesting and useful than lifestyle videos, do more of these please.
Don’t you think a lot of guys are just not bothering to approach women? I read that 25% of the population between 20-40 have never had a relationship and/or do not want one! That’s incredible.
I've been saying this for years. this "population collapse" is such a red herring.. pushed by politicians who want the "constant economic growth" but that's a Ponzi scheme where you have to always get new customers to buy in to pay for those at the top of the pyramid.. it's not sustainable.
It's normal for populations to follow a see-saw pattern. Look at who is screeching the most about population decline in Japan are the same pushing for more mass migration. I see these people as enemies of Japan.
In Hungary, they don't pay you to have kids, instead they give the women income tax deductions. 25% per child. so a woman/mother who has 2, 3 or 4 children, pays 50%, 25% or even ZERO income tax after, if she works as an office lady or in some shop like Donkihote.. she pays no income tax after 4.
This would be a good policy to implement, Hungary is the only European country to see its native population increase above replacement.
By the way, the 80s could be seen as Japan's economic heyday, yet the population of Japan is still larger today than it was in the 80s. Nobody was saying Japan needed mass migration in the 80s.
cheers man don't let the comments section bother you.
There are a lot of interesting differences brought up in this video. Whenever I daydream shop for akiyas I always pay attention to transit. In the US we have a " housing crises" but more than enough buildable land. I could buy a three bedroom, 2 bath house in my hometown for what I paid for a broken down 1 bedroom condo in a low cost of living city. However, we don't have the transportation infrastructure to support living in the small towns with cheap housing. There's limited work and limited services.
The US had a lot of discourse around dying industrial and mining towns, a lot of which boiled down to "teach them to code". The US' relationship with socialistic practices is a major issue here. Just the term "socialism" throws everyone into a tizzy. So many people like to think they're just temporarily embarrassed millionaires or that everything is a zero-sum competition. I work adjacent to assisted living and long-term care. The way that system is tied to government subsidies and for-profit insurance is insanely complicated, but because they majority are for-profit they are normally ran to maximize profit they are typically very unpleasant places.
There's a lot more to discuss but we're looking at long essay territory. Anyway, I'm just past middle age and frankly I'm tired of having more disposable income than a lot of countries but less services and safety nets, especially as a single person with no children. I don't find the potential of a significantly less income to be an issue when things like health care, which can easily financially ruin you in the US, are more taken care of. And we're seeing the same issues with not enough medical personnel due to retirements and lack of replacements (out of control college costs and our own population decline).
I daydream a lot these days about going after that "English teaching" position I didn't chase 20 years ago and mostly living off my savings.
USD/JPY 158, AUD/JPY 107. I’m landing Haneda on Thursday for a 2 week vacation. As you’re no doubt aware Japan is in a massive tourism boom.
https://youtu.be/XuU4UAsT8dY?si=qEIOylMHwuYf-dvN
I do think that the issue with too large of an aging population is the extra stress on people of working age to support the economy. The upside, however, is that the collectivist aspect of Japan means that people can form cliques to look after one another, and many retired people still do part time work and are not seen as a burden if they do part time work. I don’t think we can compare an aging population in Japan to an aging population in western countries. The healthcare burden of an older population in Japan certainly can be an issue, but it’s more akin to places with healthier diets like Spain, Southern France, Greece, Portugal and Italy. It’s not comparable to somewhere like the US, where the diet is so bad, that people’s bodies literally fall apart past 50. Filial piety has its downsides, but one upside is not treating retired and older people like surplus humanity. Japan had its abnormal population boom in the first half of the Shōwa Era, and it looks to be returning back to a pre-Shōwa era in terms of population, but with the addition of anime and fax machines.
I love that the biggest sign in town at 17:00 is "karaoke."
Interesting video Steve – a topic that interests me greatly. I think this will be THE topic of conversation globally in the next 5 years from now. Japan is definitely worried about it – maybe as you say, people on the ground not so much as you’re not hearing it but it is definitely of concern at a government level. I see a lot of it on NHK
Number of births globally is down over 10million since 2014. Down another 10 by next year. Fewer children = fewer future mothers and that’s a continual downward spiral that historically at least, no civilisation has come back from. I know Japans popular is always mentioned but Italy and Germany is as bad and practically all of Europe has this issue. China, South Korea in particular and even India birth rates are below replacement level. US is also not far behind. Australia is well below replacement rate too. Interestingly, Africa bucks this trend. So we’re in this decline now and it’s going to continue to get worse and with that will come all the social issues that is going to bring with it. The pressure on the young folk is going to be significantly worse. IMO, it’s a worrying trend with not a lot being done about it … not being sensationalist, but the data ain’t great.
Population currently going up is because we’re living longer – so there is and going to be, more old people and a lot less young people to support them.
“Birth gap” by Stephen J Shaw is a really interesting documentary – he spent years analysing this (he is a Scottish data scientist and think he still lives in Japan). Part 1 is on YouTube (part 2 and 3 unfortunately behind a paywall). Defo recommend watching them if it’s a topic of intererst – or of interest to your viewers. Another chap is the late Hans Rosling – he explains this population increase right now very well (although it will plateau at about 10billion) and his stuff can be found on YouTube as well.
As you mention, the issue is economically triggered for sure plus family structure breakdown and cultural change where women choose to postpone or NOT to have kids – thinking they can have them later on in life but sadly, infertility (men as well as women) then creeps in – contribute a lot.
In Japan for example, the decline in birth rates and the delay of having kids began in the early 70s with the oil crisis. Wasn’t related to contraception (the pill) as that didn’t get legalised until 1990 and then only around 3%of women take it!
Fascinating topic .. cheers for talking about it 👍🏻
Just wanted to say, the 2008 recession was very, very, very bad for folks born in the late 80s / early 90s in the US. They absolutely know hard times.
Ikigai
Fucking never thought about it like this. Changed my mind about the whole thing. Wow. Didn't think my perspective would be changed just from watching a video of a dude driving to the shop lol
good topic, glad I found you. Just subbed.
We all have an opinion about this issue, especially for those of us who live in Japan who experience this on a daily basis.
I agree about clickbait and other BS on YT often about what people "think" are issues.
Drive safely mate, be mindful of tailgating. The kitties need you.
very interesting talk. i have a question…why are the streetsigns in western writing? and how does your pension work? will you get pension in japan or do you already get it from australia?
Perhaps the people raising a stink about the population decline are the same ones pushing for Japan to open up to global immigration. In other words, their objective is the latter and their concern for the former is false.
Fertility rates tend to be higher in poor countries such as Chad, Uganda and other 3rd world countries, where life expectancy is shorter so if Japan becomes poorer, the birth rate will increase.
What happened to the Cars at the 14:30 Mark?
I agree, things will eventually balance out as there’ll eventually be an oversupply of housing but it does also depend on a cheap cost of living – which technology may eventually provide. Cheap renewables and AI will combine to bring production costs very low = cheap living, abundant space and housing, it’ll turn around.
Always found it odd how Japan has one of the worst birth rates if not the worse while at the same time being home to very beautiful women!
I agree with you, and even if declining birth rates do present huge problems, there are people like me who like the relatively more peaceful life in Japan that are more than willing to immigrate. I just found out I qualify for the new J-Find visa so even if my sponsor's application isn't accepted, there are more opportunities for me now 🙂
I wonder if population decline would actually present drastic benefits. Like bringing us back to the 70s where you were guaranteed a job once you had finished schooling, and a house could be purchased on the average single income. That would remove the economical pressure for the population decline entirely and it would bounce back! Maybe we're all flailing our hands over a natural cycle inherent to all ecosystems.