For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.
New discussion on the multi-day severe weather event that will begin tonight (Sunday, April 10) and last through at least Wednesday (April 13). In this video, I briefly discuss tonight’s threat of mainly elevated storms in NE OK/SW MO before diving into a comparison/contrast of new observations and model data for Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. Here’s some summarized thoughts below:
SUNDAY: Mostly elevated storms north of a stalled front from north-central Oklahoma into southwest/central Missouri. Main threats will be large hail and damaging winds; the tornado threat looks minimal, although there is an outside chance of one if a storm can latch onto the front.
MONDAY: Given nebulous forcing for ascent, we’re going to have to watch closely where the outflow boundary from tonight’s storms sets up tomorrow. Wherever that is (looks to me like central Arkansas) will be the best chance for severe storms with all hazards possible. There will also be a slightly more conditional but decent shot at severe storms with mostly a large hail and damaging wind threat along the dryline in east-central/northeast Texas, including the Dallas-Fort Worth metro area.
TUESDAY: This looks to be the biggest day of the event. I believe there will be two targets, one on the surface low/triple point in SE Nebraska/SW Iowa and also down along the dryline from central Kansas into north Texas. Both targets have the potential to produce discrete supercells with the threat for very large hail, damaging wind, and a few tornadoes (a couple of which could be strong).
WEDNESDAY: Still some lack of clarity in the setup for Wednesday, but the threat for storm will all severe hazards is apparent from the Great Lakes region all the way south to the Gulf Coast.
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It’s so weird to look at event that has a floor of a slight risk verification and a ceiling of a high risk verification, an event comparable to April 26th 91 and some blue skies (Tuesday). Just so interesting to me.
Awesome video.👍🙂
Thank you so much for these videos! Helps substantially as a newer chaser. Still on the fence about pulling the trigger and flying out to KS, but perhaps I'l see you out there!
Thank you, Trey! The input you provide is great as always. Looking forward to the following forecasts
Awesome video man love how in depth you go!
Man, wish I could be out there Tuesday. Might make it out for Wednesday. Have a great chase! Safe travels 👍
great event for you to dig into happened just the other day here in Florida. Chased a storm with one of few PDS warnings ever issued in Florida, only one in NE FL history that I can find. Textbook supercell presentation, strong gate to gate shear, populated area. County wide track. Seriously thought I was going to roll up and have to do search and rescue. Observed about a quarter mile wide lowering behind the trees and thought the worst. Later came down as a wedge waterspout with no recorded tornado. The event was narrowly overlooked, SPC issued small 5% Tor the morning of, after it was previously a broad 2%. Conditions were prime, prefrontal in a very isolated area, (only a few counties). It was 7am so diurnal heating hadn’t begun yet. Local NWS did an excellent job, best guesses on how it didn’t produce a wide EF-3+ (not joking) is the supposed responsibility of a radiation inversion. The cell was so multi faceted though it really could have been anything! I’m blindly intrigued and equally confused, especially when you take a look at the velocity couplet from that morning. April 7th 2022 7am onward, St. Johns Co, FL, NWS JAX office
These videos are always so we'll made. Hey so this is random but I have a multifaceted question for you, if your interested and have time for it. I think this could also be a cool video concept, again if you have the time and find it interesting.
First what do you think the strongest tornado possible within reason would look like? Not necessarily the strongest tornado that could happen given say 10,000 years, but the strongest tornado that we might could see in our life span. If that makes sense. Again the strongest possible tornado within reason. How much damage do you think we could see?
Secondly, and here's where it connects more to your videos, what type of conditions do you think would cause such a tornado? What would you look for in a worst case scenario concerning one specific tornado? Thanks in advance if you answer my question, and no worries if you're not interested, or don't have the time.