When Russian paratroopers began landing at Hostomel airport in February 2022, many in the media expected a David vs Goliath battle that would end quickly and badly for the Ukrainian defenders.
Instead, we’re here today to have a look at where the war stands more than 1,000 days later.
Of course, with the uptick in escalations recently, a lot of that discussion actually has to focus on the last 14 days, not the last 1,000, but it’s not everyday you see a state fire an experimental IRBM against a city…
Patreon:
https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU
Reading and Sourcing (to be uploaded 25/11 due to delayed upload) :
Russian storage level data used in this episode owes everything the the work of the following:
Covert Cabal – https://www.youtube.com/c/CovertCabal
Jompy – https://x.com/Jonpy99
Highmarsed – https://x.com/highmarsed?lang=en
Dr Jack Watling (May 2024) – Russia is beginning to compound advantages in Ukraine
https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/ukraine-russia-beginning-compound-advantages
Oleksandr V Danylyuk – How to Build Ukraine’s Military Effectiveness and Avoid a War of Attrition
https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/how-build-ukraines-military-effectiveness-and-avoid-war-attrition
Ukraine announces the draft of 160,000 more troops
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/30/ukraine-war-briefing-kyiv-announces-draft-of-160000-more-troops
Gallup polling on Ukrainian opinions on negotiations and territorial concessions
https://news.gallup.com/poll/653495/half-ukrainians-quick-negotiated-end-war.aspx
Reporting on Interceptor Drones
https://mil.in.ua/en/news/ukraine-has-developed-a-fixed-wing-uav-interceptor/
National Survey of Ukraine September – October 2024
https://www.iri.org/resources/national-survey-of-ukraine-sept-oct-2024/
Ukraine to receive 4,000 loitering munitions from Germany
https://mil.in.ua/en/news/media-ukraine-to-receive-4000-german-attack-drones-with-artificial-intelligence/
Featured Reuters article on drone production rates
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-ramps-up-arms-production-can-produce-4-million-drones-year-zelenskiy-2024-10-02/
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Any content relating to the conduct, views, activities or any aspect of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters or any matters in relation to that person or character.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:24 — What Am I Talking About
00:01:55 — Phases Of War
00:05:46 — Allied Steps
00:10:59 — Russian Responses
00:20:17 — The Changing Battlefield
00:26:55 — Russian Force Evolution
00:33:20 — What Limits Russia
00:42:32 — The Ukrainian Force Evolution
00:45:43 — What Limits Ukraine
00:58:27 — Assessing The Balance
01:01:23 — Channel Update
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As much as this is a 1,000 day update, I felt a need to focus the first third on just the last few weeks, as the escalation window between now and Jan 20th continues to deliver a series of new developments. Experimental IRBMs being used in combat is not the kind of phenomenon you see every day.
That said, I hope there's also some sombre reflection in this one. We're now past the 1,000th day of this war, and while both sides are clearly tired (with Ukraine's position particularly precarious until the future of international assistance and mobilisation is better understood), I think the signs suggest there is still a lot of fighting to come.
I hope you find the episode helpful – and thank you to all of you for your long lasting engagement and support.
Feels like ukraineans are worried there wont be enough gear to equipp a fully mobilized force.
And also the worry about loosing alot of the younger adults that will drive the future economy of ukraine.
54:30 You call it "wanting to have your cake and eat it too", I call it bad faith politicking wherein corrupt spineless narcissists say what polling/personal data tells them the public wants to hear while enacting policies focused on returning global society to sociopathic oligarchs having opulent d*ck measuring contests measured in human lives while the rest of us die in poverty.
Stopped at 25:17
Remember when this was suppose to be a 3 day military special operation…
One of the unanticipated advantages of this war for Russia is the Russian army after this war will be larger, filled with combat veterans, and will have newer equipment since they will forced to replace all the old Soviet relics they had stashed away and were destroyed.
So it’s kinda funny how the Russian goal of stopping NATO has backfired. NATO has expanded in response to the invasion. But the NATO goal of weakening the Russian army has also backfired with a larger and more competent Russian army emerging from the wreckage.
Neither the West nor Ukraine should accept any deal that does not ensure peace, which means total war if just one drone 'slips' over the border. The rest is negotiable.
"Mad Max reactivation of old Soviet equipment" xD
Terrible discussion on the nuclear threat. The while point of Putin's nuke threat is because Western weapons firing into Russua have the potential to be nuclear. Yes, its not stated Storm Shadow and Atacms can carry nukes but the weight of their mundane munitions suggests they could. Russia's IRBM was to show how it can't be stopped. Individual projectiles were travelling about Mach 8.5… So its saying "we can strike EU cities, so don't escalate with missile strikes into Russia that we must assume could at some point be nuclear"
If the all important public opinion shifts to a negotiated peace, I don't see how a referendum is a problem.
Great analysis. Glad you’re on our side mate!
What I have seen is the amount of support, financial assistance, military supplies are actually a fairly reasonable amount of support from "private" sources. These are a combination of people on various social media and people who are in Ukraine working as volunteers, mechanics, etc all doing a number of things for the logistics and equipment.
I haven't seen any information nor analysis on how much support is "unofficial" nor how effective it's been.
While aluminum is only easier to smelt from recycled materials at an efficiency well past anything else, steel is steel, so I wouldn't be shocked if a lot of those hulls are getting railed to foundries to keep the "new" steel production levels up for casting new stuff, shells and hulls or even just rails.
Appeasement never works.
Public opinion polls are meaningless when both sides are saturated with propaganda.
For any peace activists out there, it should by now be platantly clear that peace can only be achieved through credible force, since that is the ONLY language dictators understand and respect… since they have to. Like every body else. I don't like war either, it is a huge tragedy. So, the ONLY conclusion remains: "Si vis pacem, para bellum".
This analysis is insanely good. Should be mandatory watching in military academies.
This IS Propaganda. For anyone who doesn't understand that.
The issue is not the weapons provided but who programs those systems
Propaganda
Perun says that the Ukrainian government can only give up Ukrainian land with a referendum of ALL of Ukraine. Presumably that includes the part under Russian control thus making it effectively legally impossible for Ukraine to concede any land at all.
Or did I miss something there?
Russia is clearly winning quite easily. Havnt even fully mobilized. Propaganda here
It's interesting how the "debris" always seems to have a special Self combustion operation right on the target no?
> Says nothing about forced street mobilization, people being beaten each day
> Tries to argue that despite their responses ukies are willing to fight to their death
> Russia TOTALLY gonna collapse guys, TWO MORE WEEKS
> Ruble less than cent loool
Holt shit its hard to believe i thought you ever was "neutral" or "professional". Dont know what they did to you but you literally turned into another propagandist.
Mother Russia will give birth to twins one named Nuclear and one named Radiation
Don't believe zelensky saying Korean troops are now into the battle..he just wants Nato to bite..
54:41 to 55:35 should be it's own YouTube short, what a striking and telling presentation that would be